Week 14 Betting Gameplan

Tails & Matchup Angles + SGPs

Blessed with another great week of football.

As always, we’ll discuss tails angles, matchups the market is I think not properly accounting for and some SGPs. Of course, there are plenty of tails angles within the SGPs and matchups to be played separately, and the goal is as always to match the research presented without your own thoughts. Apologies for typos, life in the way delaying this a bit and wanted to get this out ASAP!

Tails Angles:

NO:

• Very similar to our angle for the Cardinals last week, this is a TB team that has very different numbers in recent weeks than for the full season. Baker Mayfield has not been the same QB since getting hurt midway through the season, as he has not had a positive EPA/Play game now since Week 6 against the Niners.

• And the defense has been struggling as well, allowing 7.6 Yards Per Dropback over the last 5 weeks, 2nd worst in the NFL and nearly 0.5 yards per play worse than 3rd place team. This is a team on both sides of the ball whose full season numbers has not matched the current iteration of this team, and 8 points separating these teams is far too much in my view when accounting for where each team currently sits.