Week 14 Betting Gameplan

Tails & Matchup Angles + SGPs

A full slate of football, we are so blessed. As usual, in this note we’ll cover some tails angles (those not covered in other sections— SGPs + matchups have some within them!) some matchups the market is perhaps overlooking and mispricing, and we’ll hit on some SGPs. I will try and keep these as short and succinct as possible and apologies for any typos.

Tails Angles:

TB:

• The Bucs leaned on the ground game against Carolina last week with Irving and White each generating 6+ YPC and almost 230 rush yards. But that was against an atrocious Panthers front and this matchup against LV presents an entirely different matchup.

• Teams are passing nearly 10% more than expected against LV over the last month of the season as they have the 4th worst EPA per Pass and 4th best EPA per rush. Or choose your metric and it will reveal a Raiders team good at stopping the run and poor at stopping the pass.

• Bakers prop markets, especially his attempts, sit decently below his season averages and production to this point. And whereas the market is likely pricing this using a rough median adjusted for recent performance and the expected margin of victory, the Bucs figure to both tilt pass heavier than they have been the past few weeks and also pass heavier than your typical 6.5 point favorite (and should have success against a Raiders defense struggling to defend the pass). It is also worth noting the Raiders get much of their defensive pass value from the pass-rush and quick pressure. Baker and the Bucs have been terrific so far this season mitigating pressure seeing one of the lowest quick pressure rates in the NFL.

CLE/PIT:

• I have been advocating that Wilson’s success is likely not sustainable—the entirety of the EPA he’s added is via the deep ball— but this is perhaps not the spot for betting on the regression. Cleveland is dead last in the NFL in explosive pass rate allowed and their pass rush has gotten far worse since trading Za’darius Smith to Detroit.

• And for a team that plays single high and man coverage at a high rate, they rely on winning 1-on-1 coverage matchups and the inability to generate pressure makes them extra vulnerable to deep passes. It is no coincidence that as the pass results have gotten worse for the Browns so have their coverage outcomes, especially the inability to prevent explosives.

• On the other side of the ball, the Browns O-line is a mess and is likely starting Germain Ifedi and his 42.7 PFF grade at LT against a dominant Steelers pass-rush that will likely be at full strength for the first time in months with Alex Highsmith now returning from injury.

• And while I think it would be unsurprising to see the D-line take over the game and wreak havoc for Winston (tails), he has also shown an ability to navigate good opponents and we all know his aggressive style of play leads to points (on both sides of the ball). This a game with perhaps the most volatility which allows us to get creative in telling different stories via the SGP markets.

MIA vs NYJ:

• The Jets pass defense and coverage have struggled immensely over the last 6 weeks of the season bottom 10 in YPA, EPA/Pass etc. And the strength of the Jets defense has remained their pass rush which has the 2nd highest quick pressure rate (within 2.5s) over the last 5 weeks. But the Dolphins mitigate quick pressure as Tua has by far the lowest time to throw of any QB in the NFL at 2.3 seconds thereby all but mitigating the effect of the Jets defense here.

• Without Sauce Gardner, who has still maintained 80th percentile ranks in separation prevented, and the Jets defense figures to be in an even worse spot. The team has been playing one of the highest rates of single coverage (in the cluster of teams basically T-3rd) which would mean that individual coverage matchups matter more than a typical offense. And the difference between Sauce Gardner and Qwan'tez Stiggers and his 44 PFF grade goes a long way against Jaylen Waddle/Tyreek Hill. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have been the pass-heaviest team in the NFL since Tua came back. I’ll be on the Dolphins passing attack and those Dolphins SGPs.

SF/CHI

• Think this game has some sneaky shootout potential. The 49ers defense has been abysmal generating pressure without Nick Bosa and his 25% pass rush win rate, bottom 3 in the quick pressure rate in the small sample of them without Bosa. And like we’ve talked about with Williams for weeks, his ability to get rid of the ball quick has been critical for his success. The run game also figures to have some success against a 49ers run D that is bottom 5 in Success Rate allowed and various other run defense metrics.

• SF side we’ll get into during the SGP section, but the CHI D has been dreadful since Week 6 and SF can have some success on both sides of the ball.

Leveraging Tails:

New Orleans Saints -13.5 (+310)

Let's start, as always, by examining the team fundamentals to establish a framework for our analysis.

The chart above highlights how well teams earn points at the drive level (EDP), emphasizing reproducible and sustainable success.

Over the last few months, with an increased weight on recent weeks, the Saints have consistently outperformed the Giants by a solid margin on both offense and defense.

However, it’s important to note that both teams are navigating significant changes due to injuries and quarterback transitions.

For the Giants, the sample size with Drew Lock at quarterback is limited, but the offensive line issues are glaring. They are now down to their third-string right tackle, Chris Hubbard, who owns a 25.5 PFF grade that ranks last at the position. They are also trotting out third-string left tackle Joshua Ezeudu, who has put up PFF grades of 46.0 and 42.4 over the past two seasons.

In the above chart, courtesy of Timo Riske, we see how much Chris Hubbard has struggled in pass protection this season and the significant gap between him and Jermaine Eluemunor, whom he is replacing. As the Giants’ offensive line injuries have mounted, their protection has steadily deteriorated, culminating in pressure on nearly half their dropbacks (48%) over the past few weeks. Even against a relatively weak Saints defensive line, this trend spells trouble for the Giants. No quarterback or offense can thrive under such consistent duress.

Turning to the Saints, let’s examine how their fundamentals hold up amid their own injury challenges.

Here, we examine the Saints‘ EDP performance on a per-game basis, with opponent logos indicating the defensive quality of each matchup. When Derek Carr has been on the field — he missed time after his Week 5 injury but returned in Week 9 — the Saints have consistently delivered average to above-average results.

Despite losing key offensive weapons like Chris Olave in Week 9 and Rashid Shaheed earlier in the season, the Saints have maintained slightly above-average efficiency in moving the ball. This consistency suggests that their offensive outlook might be better than the raw fundamentals indicate, particularly in a favorable matchup against the Giants.

The Giants have been one of the most vulnerable defenses in the NFL when failing to generate quick pressure, allowing a league-high EPA per play in such situations. Now, the challenge intensifies as they face the remainder of the season without their best disruptor, Dexter Lawrence, who is sidelined with an injury.

Lawrence’s absence not only removes his elite production—which accounted for most of the team’s pressure—but also exacerbates the defense's issues through second-order effects. Lawrence led the NFL in double-team rate on pass-rush snaps at 75%, a figure far ahead of anyone else. Without him demanding extra attention, opposing offenses can allocate more resources to neutralizing the Giants’ already struggling pass rush, further exposing a defense that has relied heavily on his presence.

Naturally, Dexter Lawrence’s presence has forced opposing teams to focus their attention on him, allowing other Giants pass rushers, like Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux, to face some of the lowest double-team rates in the NFL. However, with Lawrence sidelined, the dynamic changes drastically. Burns and Thibodeaux, whose production has already been underwhelming, are now likely to face more frequent double teams, further limiting their effectiveness.

The Giants’ defense, already heavily reliant on quick pressure for any semblance of success, is poised to suffer significantly. Losing their best disruptor in Lawrence not only reduces their ability to generate pressure but also creates a ripple effect that could weaken the entire unit, leaving an already vulnerable defense even more exposed.

For Derek Carr, staying out of disruption—especially from pressure—has been critical to his success. The Saints rank among the NFL’s best when Carr operates from a clean pocket but fall near the bottom when plays break down.

Fortunately for Carr, the Saints’ offensive line will receive much-needed reinforcements with the returns of Lucas Patrick and Eric McCoy, even as they manage without Taysom Hill. These additions should provide Carr with the time he needs to operate effectively. Against a Giants defense that has been abysmal when unable to generate pressure—now further weakened by the absence of Dexter Lawrence—Carr should find himself in a prime position to exploit favorable matchups and dissect the defense.

Matchups

Vikings QB Sam Darnold takes advantage of the Falcons’ weak pass rush

In our PFF study on quarterback traits, we highlighted how a quarterback’s style of play significantly affects their sensitivity to their surroundings and environment. Players like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, who excel at creating out of structure, are far less dependent on favorable circumstances compared to quarterbacks like Jared Goff, who tend to struggle when plays break down.

One way to quantify this phenomenon is by examining how quarterbacks perform when a play is disrupted, particularly under disruption pressure — pressure that prevents a play from ever fully developing. This metric offers valuable insight into a quarterback’s ability to handle adversity and maintain efficiency when their environment becomes less predictable.

Sam Darnold has displayed stark splits based on the presence of disruption pressure. When kept clean, Darnold and the Vikings have generated the third-most EPA per play in the NFL. However, under disruption pressure, Darnold’s performance plummets to the bottom five in the league.

Fortunately for Darnold, the Falcons present a favorable matchup. Atlanta ranks just behind Carolina for the lowest disruption pressure rate in the NFL, creating disruption on only 12% of dropbacks—two standard deviations below the league average. This bodes well for Darnold, who has faced disruption on 22% of his dropbacks this season, one of the highest rates in the league. Against the Falcons, that number is likely to drop significantly, allowing Darnold to exploit a cleaner pocket.

I’ll be targeting Darnold’s passing overs and alternate overs, as well as Vikings team totals and same-game parlays that paint the picture of a dominant aerial victory for Minnesota.

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Titans QB Will Levis finds success throwing the ball downfield against a vulnerable Jaguars defense

Will Levis has faced his share of struggles this season, but his greatest success has come in throwing deep and generating explosive plays. At PFF, we’ve found that explosive plays are critical to sustaining offensive success, and it’s no surprise that Levis’ overall numbers have improved in recent weeks as his deep-ball efficiency has increased. This ability to stretch the field has been a driving force behind the offense’s recent progress.

During the season, Will Levis established himself as one of the NFL's most successful deep-ball passers. He attempts deep throws at one of the highest rates in the league and ranks third in EPA per attempt on such throws.

This week, Levis faces a Jaguars defense that has been highly vulnerable to explosive plays, allowing a league-worst 11% explosive pass rate. The matchup tilts even further in Levis' favor, considering Jacksonville's inability to generate pressure consistently, which should give him more time to exploit their secondary downfield.

Levis has struggled significantly when under pressure this season, posting the highest pressure-to-sack rate in the NFL and showing limited ability to extend plays. However, he gets a favorable matchup against a Jaguars defense that generates pressure at the fourth-lowest rate in the league. This should give Levis ample time to operate from the pocket, avoid the sacks that have been a major issue, and capitalize on his ability to throw deep.

With Levis’ passing props set at modest numbers, I’ll be targeting his overs, alternate overs and same-game parlays that center on the Titans finding success through the air.

SGPs:

Story: Kevin Austin Jr. breaks out vs Single High Coverage

With all of the Saints injuries Kevin Austin Jr. has begun to get some run as the WR2 , running the second most WR routes the last few weeks behind MVS. As we discussed in our tails article, The Saints now face a Giants pass defense bottom in most metrics and figure to look worse with the injury to Dexter Lawrence.

The Giants team has also been playing single high coverage at the one highest rate in the NFL over the last few months (nearly 70% of the time), which has been an area Austin Jr has excelled in his small sample of snaps.

Austin Jr. has been terrific both in his ability to earn separation and his play at the catchpoint which have both been at the very top of the league. For this reason, he has seen a healthy 22% target share vs single high and leads the Saints with nearly 2.9 Yards Per Route run against Single high

Build 50:1 on Caesars

Austin 6 receptions+ Austin 70 rec yds + Austin Anytime TD

Story: Purdy and Kittle Carve Up Bears in Win

The Bears have struggled in coverage this season, especially against in-line tight ends where they are allowing some of the highest yardage counts in the NFL.

Much of this has to do with T.J Edwards' struggles in coverage where he is allowing the second highest rate of separation and is dead last in YPRR allowed. This sets up exceptionally well for George Kittle who runs a lot of his routes in-line and figures to see plenty of T.J Edwards in this spot.

And as the 🐐 Ben Linsey mentioned, Kittle also has the highest YPRR (3.01) on the 49ers against Cover 3 which is one of the main primary coverages from the Bears.

Build 25:1 on DK

Purdy 300 Yards

Kittle 100 Yards

SF -3

Story: Herbert Connects With Palmer on Some Deep Passes in Chargers Win

The Chiefs pass defense has been struggling mightily since Jaylen Watson went down allowing each of its (mostly below average) opponents to pass for an EPA of at least 0.12. And they have been exceptionally vulnerable to the deep ball, allowing the 4th highest explosive pass rate since Watson went down.

Enter Josh Palmer who has been the Chargers main deep threat, leading the team in deep grade and ADOT. Palmer is the primary deep threat and especially so against the two high coverages the Chiefs almost exclusively run. Johnston has basically no role against 2 high coverages,

And further elevating the case is that Palmer has been the Chargers secondary target against man coverage – which the Chiefs play at a top 5 rate– seeing a 23% target rate against those coverages.

And if Palmer is connecting on some big plays that is precisely what would push Herbert above his passing props and, considering how good the Chiefs run defense is, would be the likeliest path to a Chargers win.

Build 44:1 on Draft Kings

Herbert 300 Passing Yards

LAC ML

Palmer 80 rec yds

DFS;

Have honestly not yet started the DFS research— perhaps I will post a note tomorrow with some thoughts if that’s of interest.

That’s all for this week! As always, appreciate the support and spread the good word about throwthedamball! Let’s have ourselves a week