Week 14 Betting Gameplan

Tails & Matchup Angles + SGPs

A full slate of football, we are so blessed. As usual, in this note we’ll cover some tails angles (those not covered in other sections— SGPs + matchups have some within them!) some matchups the market is perhaps overlooking and mispricing, and we’ll hit on some SGPs. I will try and keep these as short and succinct as possible and apologies for any typos.

Tails Angles:

TB:

• The Bucs leaned on the ground game against Carolina last week with Irving and White each generating 6+ YPC and almost 230 rush yards. But that was against an atrocious Panthers front and this matchup against LV presents an entirely different matchup.

• Teams are passing nearly 10% more than expected against LV over the last month of the season as they have the 4th worst EPA per Pass and 4th best EPA per rush. Or choose your metric and it will reveal a Raiders team good at stopping the run and poor at stopping the pass.

• Bakers prop markets, especially his attempts, sit decently below his season averages and production to this point. And whereas the market is likely pricing this using a rough median adjusted for recent performance and the expected margin of victory, the Bucs figure to both tilt pass heavier than they have been the past few weeks and also pass heavier than your typical 6.5 point favorite (and should have success against a Raiders defense struggling to defend the pass). It is also worth noting the Raiders get much of their defensive pass value from the pass-rush and quick pressure. Baker and the Bucs have been terrific so far this season mitigating pressure seeing one of the lowest quick pressure rates in the NFL.