Week 14 Sunday Gameplan
Angles To Attack, Tails Bets, Live Betting, & SGP's
Happy Sunday everyone!
We’re so blessed to have another great week of football on our hands. Come watch and live bet games with us today—mostly to make fun of me, but also so that you can pitch some trade ideas for us all to profit!
In this note we will go through some matchup angles I’m looking to capitalize, process for my favorite tails bet of the week ”leveraging tails,” and cover some deep out of the money SGP’s.
SGP Quick Hitters:
Note: These are not all the angles I am attacking—leaving some off for sake of brevity and there are also more angles included in sections below.
It should also be noted: by SGP here, I don’t just mean deep out of the money parlays—though those are of course in play— but I also mean “mini SGP’s” with a prop+spread or something of that sort which tells a unique game story at juicy odds.
TEN Passing Game
Over last 6 games, the Jax D’ is allowing a 0.34 Pass EPA—essentially turning opposing passers into MVP’s— to go along with top 5 rush EPA. As a result, teams are passing over expected 5% of the time(3rd most in NFL). While TEN certainly prefers to run, we can make a tails bet to capture the tails outcome in which TEN turns to the air.
Tua Passing Yds+ Dolphins spread
MIA should have their way regardless of whether they run or pass— but their 7.5% Pass Over Expected in Tua games suggests they will attack via the pass. And without Derwin James, this already attackable Chargers Pass D becomes even more vulnerable.
LAC has allowed the highest explosive play %, not exactly a recipe for success against a MIA team #1 in explosive pass % with Tua in the lineup. Further, LAC has also played man coverage 6th most in the NFL, and we’ve been betting all year on the Dolphins pass game in spots against man heavy teams without the personnel to cover Hill and Waddle. In case you need a reminder—as process is same now as it was then—and a second reminder :) .
IYCMI: Live Betting
Live Betting Gameplan Week 14.
Of course, follow and join us on GameTrade as we put the above gameplan into action and as we collectively trade, laugh, tilt, and hopefully profit. I’m just waiting to see who this week will bring out the little child in me—as Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams did for us all a few weeks back.
Leveraging Tails:
Bet(s): NYJ +7.5 & Mike White 250 yds Passing (+390 DK)/ Sprinkle some deeper money NYJ ML+ Mike White O Passing yds
At this point in the season, we generally have a decent sample size and a good sense of team fundamentals and the real contenders and pretenders. But in understanding and predicting where teams are going, it is also important to weigh short term play in the context of the season—if there is change, is that change noisy? Is it a product of a marked change either in player development, scheme or something else sticky? Does the smaller but more recent sample actually have more predictive value in the short run? These are all important questions that are difficult to answer, but allows for us to better learn about sourcing market pricing and where we might be able to find value.
Fundamentals
If we took a look from a full season’s perspective, the Bills would be in the NFL’s elite tier– and for good reason.
But that does necessarily have predictive value, especially when considering there is good reason to be bearish on the Bills relative to their sky high expectations. Accounting for the dip in performance in recent weeks likely due to sticky factors, the Bills in the short term, should not be priced as the league's best team.
Since Allen’s injury the offense has taken a hit. And continuing on the trend from the past 6-7 weeks now, the Bills defense has not been the elite unit from early in the season but a below average one.
Angle 1: Allen is being priced as an elite QB, but is not playing like one following his elbow injury
On the offensive side of the ball, the Bills efficiency has sputtered as Allen has struggled to manage his injury. This has been especially true throwing to the deep areas of the field, where Allen has enjoyed far less success.
Through 8 weeks, Allen was perhaps the games best deep thrower, but following the injury his spot is towards the bottom left of the graph with a raw PFF grade of 0.1 and an EPA of 0.05.
Of course, this is a small sample and that comes with some questions, but in looking to predict the short term, there should be more uncertainty priced into the Bills given Allen’s performance.
Angle 2: Without the dominant ass rush of the early season, the Bills defense is just average.
Before the bye, the Bills were generating quick pressure–pressure before 2.5 seconds– 27% of the time, which was 3rd best in the NFL.
But as the injuries piled up to Von Miller and Gregory Rousseau, that number has plummeted to 17%, 5th worst in the NFL. Of course, Von Miller is now out for the year and Shaq Lawson and his 51 PFF Grade(104/117) doesn’t exactly exude confidence that he will match Miller’s production.
While the Bills defense left a lasting impression early in the season as a dominant unit following 2 prime-time thrashings in weeks 1 & 2, the production simply hasn’t matched the reputation. With a depleted pass rush, since the bye, the Bills have allowed 0.147 EPA per pass, 5th worst in the NFL. And there are no reinforcements on the way to help ameliorate the issues.
All of this is to say: the main thesis is that 10 point spread against the Jets is far too much.
But rather than just buy the Jets at +10 -110, we can combine the above angles to build a story that sources the angles of the thesis and get far better odds. The +7.5 builds in the expectation the Bills are not the same team with Josh Allen and this defense, and the Mike White passing yards build in a selling of the Bills Pass D’ that we just explored. But let’s dive a bit deeper.
Matchup Angles & Notes:
Though everything is a small sample with Mike White considering it has only been 2 games(but his 0.14 EPA is certainly impressive), it is structurally clear the Jets are more comfortable having White throw than they were Zach Wilson. As Sam Hoppen noted, the Jets passed 5.6% below expectation with Zach Wilson, but have thrown 0.3% above expectation without Wilson. And considering we are betting on passing yards, volume matters perhaps more than efficiency.
In a matchup against the 7th best Run D per EPA, the Jets will have to continue to lean into White if they are to have success. They will be throwing the ball. And while Mike White might not be the next coming of Dan Marino, against a defense producing well below reputation–as we just explored– White can generate enough volume and efficiency to go over his passing prop.
Further bolstering the case here on the volume side is that both the Bills and Jets play at a top 5 pace of play in neutral situations. The more plays, the more opportunities for passing yards.
Depending on how much one buys the thesis, I’d recommend not scaling in size, but continuing to move the lines further in the Jets and Mike White’s favor. There is certainly a tails outcome in which Mike White puts up another big passing performance and the Jets win–or even win with margin. The odds there can get up to +3300, and they all revolve around the same thesis: selling both Allen’s recent performance and a Bills D’ hurting without their dominant pass rush.
SGP’s
CAR @ SEA:
Story: Darnold takes advantage of a weak matchup and leans on DJ Moore for a big passing day.
The Seahawks Pass defense has quietly struggled all year, especially in defending against deep explosive passes.
Enter DJ Moore who has been one of the games premier deep threats and is firmly in the top right of our below graph—which captures WR efficiency on deep throws.
Aside from the deep threat angle, DJ Moore has commanded a 30% target share with Darnold at the helm last year. Moore should be targeted early and often.
With such depressed pricing not much needs to go right for this bet to hit–and we’ve seen in, short stints, some Darnold magic before(he blew past 250 yards in each of his first 4 starts last year).
Build FD+ 2598
Sam Darnold 250+ Yards Passing
DJ Moore 100+ Yards Receiving
DJ Moore TD
NYJ @ BUF
Story: Mike White leans on Garrett Wilson to upset the Bills.
Since their bye, which has also coincided with some key injuries, the Bills D has been struggling in defending the pass, withe 5th worst Pass EPA in that span.
We spoke in Leveraging Tails this week about how the Bills defensive struggles might be sticky. They’ve lost key pass-rushers and have subsequently fallen from a top 5 defense in quick pressure rate to a bottom 5 one.
Couple this matchup with what should be an increase in play volume–both teams play at a top 5 pace–and Mike White can again put up some big passing numbers in an easier than perceived and priced matchup and with volume on his side.
Of course, his preferred target is stud rookie Garrett Wilson who has received close to 30% of White’s targets and is 9th in PFF Receiving Grade.
Build: FD +2496
Mike White 275+ Yards Passing
New York Jets (-2.5) Spread
Garrett Wilson 90+ Yards Receiving
KC vs DEN:
Story: Jeudy’s domination of man coverage allows keeps Broncos afloat
The Chiefs have run the 5th most man coverage in the NFL and have trended towards more man coverage as the season has gone along. But against the Broncos, that leaves a mismatch with Jerry Jeudy.
Jeudy is alone in the top right corner as the best producing WR against man coverage, commanding a target on nearly and third of his routes, and generating nearly 4.5 yards per route run.
And because the Chiefs so often find themselves in the lead, opponents have attempted the 4th most passes against them. There should be plenty of passing volume to go around for Wilson and Jeudy. Now despite Wilson’s struggles this year, the Broncos still pass at expectation, and in a game they are likely to trail, Jeudy’s efficiency and combined volume can lead to a spike in passing yards for Wilson.
And should the Broncos be able to move the ball, then that likely means the Chiefs will need to remain decently aggressive. In that game script, Mahomes will then likely put up at least an average passing day by his standards and this nearly doubles our odds as a last leg.
Build: FD +2514
Russell Wilson 250+ Yards Passing
Jerry Jeudy 110+ Yards & TD
Patrick Mahomes 250+ Yards Passing
Good luck to all and let’s have ourselves a day!