Week 15 Betting Gameplan
Matchup & Tails Angles+ SGPs
Jumping right into it this week. As usual, in this note we’ll cover some tails angles not mentioned in the other notes, some matchups the market is perhaps overlooking and mispricing, and some SGPs. Can read the full tails case for GB here: Apologies for any typos— scrambling a bit with the games last night.
Tails Angles:
CHI
The Browns defense has been a juggernaut by anyone’s standards so far this season, but the team is dealing with a slew of injuries and will be without both of their starting safeties in this game and will be missing some starters on the D-line as well. That itself creates interesting pricing dynamics (value in the uncertainty of how good this iteration. ofthe defense is), but it is on the other side of the ball with the Bears defense that I think most of the value originates.
Since returning back some key players from injuries in week 7, the team is top 5 in defensive EDP+EPA/Play allowed. Part of that is the opponents they’ve faced, but the Browns are no different, still a team led by Joe Flacco (who can put up yards in games.. not much needs to go right for that as we’ve been saying for weeks) but that should not have us convinced he is all of a sudden a good QB.
All of this is to say: the market is pricing the Bears D as a below average unit and is buying into Flacco’s recent success. Should the Bears D’ perform above expectations that should create more play volume for the Bears offense, who if having success against a projected great defense will likely run far more offensive plays than anticipated .Extra volume means more opportunity for yards and SGPs good— and hey, pass attempts are priced as extremely negatively correlated to alt spreads of that team winning.
HOU:
You know the drill here— the Titans are a pass funnell D and we have no idea how good Case Keenum will be in this PFF_Bobby Slowik scheme. If the market is pricing in very low projected output, I want to buy the tails that Keenum can succeed in a great matchup and with what I think is a great scheme. Again, not much needs to go right for a QB to have an average to above average game.
NYJ:
Can’t believe I’m writing this up as a play but hard to ignore the upside here. I’m fairly certain Wilson is very bad but he is it possible he can put together a couple of games of great output? I guess so. Things working in his favor relative to market pricing: MIA has been a big pass-funell, the Jets pass way more than expected with a QB of his caliber, the MIA offense (potentially) without Tyreek Hill could face a massive decline in efficiency. If we push up the pass attempts (rush attempts too on account of play volume+kneel equity) we can get a nice 800:1 on Wilson and the Jets winning.
ARI:
Small play here, but the Cardinals have sneakily been decent since Kyler Murray came back. The 49ers are a house offensively but Murray’s style and his ability to create—2nd in create rate— might allow him to mitigate the dominant SF pass rush and buy himself enough time to expose a quietly weak SF secondary. With one of the highest ADOTs+ deep attempt percentages in the entire NFL, if a couple of these deep shots hit we can see Kyler Murray with a ceiling game going toe-to-toe with SF, attractive at current pricing.
Matchup Angles:
MATCHUP ANGLE: LOS ANGELES RAMS QUARTERBACK MATTHEW STAFFORD EXCELS FROM WITHIN STRUCTURE AGAINST A DEPLETED WASHINGTON COMMANDERS FRONT
• As we studied last summer, quarterbacks who rarely scramble and fail to create positive results on scrambles will be far more sensitive to matchups against good defenses than those who scramble and scramble well.
• Quarterbacks who scramble often are less sensitive to tough matchups than the more stationary signal-callers who need plays in structure to succeed.
• While Matthew Stafford can scramble with some success when needed, he is most productive when he gets to play within the structure of the offense.
• Stafford should stay in structure often against a reeling Washington defense that ranks last in pressure rate and second-to-last in quick pressure rate since the team traded Chase Young and Montez Sweat.
• Stafford has a top-five PFF grade and ranks top-10 in expected points added (EPA) per dropback from a clean pocket, though he has been kept clean at only a league-average rate.
• Against a weak pass rush, Stafford should continue his dominance against a Commanders secondary that is also bleeding explosive plays.
Bets to make: Rams team total, Rams spreads, and parlays with Stafford and Rams alt spreads.
MATCHUP ANGLES: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS QUARTERBACK PATRICK MAHOMES CAPITALIZES ON THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS‘ BLITZ AND MAN-HAPPY SCHEME
• While Patrick Mahomes has struggled compared to past seasons, he is still one of the very best in the game, and his depressed pricing should only make us more inclined to bet on him in this spot. But why?
• Mahomes excels against man coverage and the blitz, two prominent features of the Patriots' defense. The Patriots have blitzed at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL this season.
While Mahomes is closer to the middle of the pack when the defense doesn't send an extra rusher, he is fifth in EPA per play against the blitz in 2023. Over his career, he has been the best quarterback in the NFL against the blitz.
As for man coverage? The Patriots have played man coverage at a top-five rate all season and the second-most man coverage in the NFL over the past six weeks.
While Mahomes is relatively average against zone coverage, he remains dominant against man. Again, he has been the best quarterback in the NFL against man coverage over his career.
Bets to make: Chiefs spreads, Mahomes passing props, and same-game parlays that combine these two bets.
SGPs:
New York Giants quarterback Tommy DeVito leans on wide receiver Jalin Hyatt in the deep passing game
The Saints have faced the 5th deepest ADOT this season at nearly 8.5 yards deep, while also allowing the 3rd most separation of any defense. This defensive structure lends itself to be exposed by receivers who can win downfield and generate separation downfield, which is precisely the area where Jalin Hyatt best operates.
Hyatt ranks towards the top of the league both in his ability to separate on downfield routes and his ability to come down with contested catches and wins after the catch.
With the Saints last in pressure rate generated, Devito should have plenty of time to avoid sacks–his achilles heel– and throw to Hyatt downfield where his skill set matches up well with the Saints.
PointsBet SGP Build: 25-1
QB Tommy DeVito, New York Giants: 250+ passing yards
WR Jalin Hyatt, New York Giants: 65+ receiving yards
Story: Baltimore Ravens continue pass-heavy ways and lean on new WR1 Odell Beckham Jr.
Since coming back from injury, Odell Beckham Jr is 2nd in the NFL in targets per route run while ranking 3rd in the NFL in separation and 7th in yard per route run. Beckham appears to be finding his form at the right time of the season for Baltimore.
Only the Niners and Eagles have had their opponents pass more above expected than the Jaguars, whose opponents have thrown 4% above expected against them.
And the Ravens themselves have begun to pass far more than expected and should be throwing far more often than the sample built into the current prices would indicate. Look for the Ravens to throw often and lean on their sneaky dominant Odell Beckham Jr in the process.
PointsBet SGP Build: 35-1
QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 300+ passing yards
WR Odell Beckham Jr., Baltimore Ravens: 95+ receiving yards
Story: Kansas City Chiefs QB Mahomes leans on Justin Watson vs. the man-coverage-heavy New England Patriots
As we talked about in our matchups column, the Patriots love to blitz and play man coverage, both of which are areas where Mahomes has excelled both for this season and for his career.
Among his receivers it is Justin Watson who has been the most productive facing man coverage, with the best PFF separation grade and the highest yards per route run among all Chiefs WRs.
Further, the Patriots have been dominant against WR1s all season while remaining vulnerable to secondary receivers. Watson figures to see a plurality of his snaps against J.C Jackson, PFF’s worst graded CB this season.
FanDuel SGP Build: +2060
QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 300+ passing yards
WR Justin Watson, Kansas CIty Chiefs: 70+ receiving yards
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Awesome as always, Judah!