Week 15 Early Week Thoughts
Welcome (back) to Throwthedamball!
I don’t have too much to add that wasn’t already said on podcast/streams this week, so will try and keep this update short.
I will note, though, the “vaunted” rushing attacks of the Browns and Titans have been awfully quiet over the last month and a bit (since the Browns bye).
Is it noisy? Possibly. But Henry is older and hasn’t been efficient all season. As for Chubb, he is in year 5 and only his second time at 230+carries, it wouldn’t be totally shocking if he is a bit worn down and on the decline—at least to finish the season. Something to at least chew on.
Regarding Chubb and the Browns, it also means that if backing the Browns on Saturday, I think this game comes down to how Watson and the Passing offense performs. Watson has a dreadful 49.5 PFF grade while in rhythm so far this year, but this was an area he excelled at in Houston where he had a 94.5 PFF grade in rhythm. As the rust wears off, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him look more like 94.5 grade player in rhythm rather than the 49.5. It is certainly an angle I will be monitoring while betting live. Speaking of angles to monitor….
Select angles/notes to monitor for Saturday games:
CLE vs BAL: DPJ is seeing close to 25% of the targets from Watson, has close to 50% of the air yards and is seeing the most snaps of any Browns WR. We were on him last week, and I don’t think his prop pricing has caught up to his new role. Something to eye betting props or making SGPs
MIA vs BUF: The market is firmly downgrading the Dolphins offense following 2 back-to-back rough games. But the NFL is a push-and-pull league and McDaniel knows after this Chargers game he has to change up the style of attack. I see little reason why he won’t be able to adjust—from his early returns maximizing Tua and the offense to their efficiency scripted, I have faith McDaniel can right the ship. And as we spoke about last week, I’m looking to sell the BUF pass D which has struggled over the last 2 months as the pass rush has deteriorated. Of course, weather might be a factor here, but unless there is severe wind or heavy snow, I’m prepared to fade the weather and buy Tua and the Dolphins (scaling passing yards O and MIA spread from +7.5 and onwards).
Early Week Media:
PFF Forecast: Live Bets and a sneak preview into my favorite tails bet of the week.
NFL Week 15 Betting Market Outlook: we recap live betting process/lessons from last week, talk market power rankings, and briefly preview Week 15 NFL games.
As always, thank you for reading and be sure to check your inbox Sunday morning for the Sunday Gameplan.