Week 15 Sunday Gameplan
Happy Sunday everyone!
We’re so blessed to have another great week of football on our hands. Come watch and live bet games with us today—mostly to make fun of me, but also so that you can pitch some trade ideas for us all to profit and enjoy betting and watching football together!
In this note we will go through some matchup angles I’m looking to capitalize, process for my favorite tails bet of the week ”Leveraging Tails,” and we’ll cover some deep out of the money SGP’s.
Matchup Angles:
LV vs NE: Sneaky Shootout & LV Passing game + spread
A matchup against NE seems daunting on paper—they are #1 in Pass EPA— but that number is a bit misleading considering NE has played more than half their games against backup QBs. Averaged out to the rest of the season, in games against starting NFL QB’s, the Pats would have the 7th worst DEF Drive Quality and 10th worst pass EPA.
The Pats have been top 10 in Run D all year, and over the 2nd half of the season, they have they have the best Run D in terms of EPA and Success Rate (by a large margin). Look for this to turn the Raiders to the air where they might have more success than the market is pricing in against “the #1 Pass D” and with Waller and Renfrow back in the fold.
On the NE side, LV has the 2nd worst pass D EPA but that is already being priced into NE offensive pricing I think. Where I have interest in the NE is in betting on this game environment as part of an SGP.
JAX vs DAL: DAL turns to the pass?
Over the last 6 weeks, JAX has a top 5 run defense and a disastrous 0.245 EPA per Dropback allowed. This would be the worst in the league over the full season by a large margin. We haven’t seen DAL in a pass heavy game script since Dak’s return but this might just be the spot.
Leveraging Tails:
Bet: Bengals alternate spreads(-5.5/9.5& beyond) + Burrow Passing Yards Overs
Fundamentals:
It is rare at this point in the season for there to be a huge disparity between a teams efficiency and their spread rating. According to the Inpredict spreads, which sources spread lines to create a power ranking, the Bucs are the 10th best team in the NFL, while the Bengals sit at 4th. But the efficiency tells a far different story:
On defense, these teams have been roughly equal, but the Bengals have been nearly a point better per drive than the Buccaneers on offense. On the play level offensively, the Bengals are 3rd in the NFL in EPA/play (0.11) while the Buccaneers are 21st (-0.21).
By week 15, we are no longer dealing with small sample sizes–and the gap between these two teams from a fundamentals perspective suggests they are not in the same class of team despite the market pricing them as such.
But better than just betting the spread on the angle that the line is mispriced, we can combine angles knowing the Bengals like to attack via the pass and should be efficient in doing so. If they are going to win–and win by margin– it will likely be through Burrow and the passing offense.
For the season, the Bengals pass over expected more than 7% of the time and they have been remarkably consistent week-to-week, especially since their bye in week 10.
And total play volume–important for betting passing props– should likewise be on the Bengals side as both teams are top 10 in plays this season, and the Bucs play at the fastest pace in the NFL.
Despite the Bengals offensive efficiency all season and the uptick in projected play volume, the market is projecting a slight downgrade to the Bengals offense relative to their season long averages. The Bengals offense is projected for 3 fewer points than their season average and Burrow 15 fewer passing yards, likely because of their perceived “tough” matchup against the Buccaneers defense. That is an angle I’d want to fade regardless–buy great offenses to beat good defenses– but even still, following some injuries, the defensive personnel for TB is a shell of its early season self.
With Jamel Dean and Vita Vea likely out this week, as it currently stands, the team is full of weak links– only one defender has earned a PFF grade above average grade at their position.
Schematically, the Bucs have dialed up blitzes on close to 40% of their plays–6th most in the NFL– but Burrow and the Bengals have absolutely carved up the blitz this season.
Against the blitz, Burrow is 2nd in PFF Grade, and is 7th best by EPA. There is little the defense can throw at Burrow by way of pressure schemed or not–TB is 9th worst in both pressure and quick pressure rate–to slow Burrow and the passing game down.
Bottom line: The Bengals have been dominant on offense all season but are priced for a less efficient day likely on account of the Buccaneers defensive success. Buy great offenses to beat good defenses as a general rule, but in this spot the Buccaneers defense is hurt and their blitz-happy tendency is one Burrow and the Bengals have carved up. In an up tempo game, bet on Burrow and the Bengals passing game to dominate the Buccaneers.
SGP’s:
Story: Dalton hits Olave for a long TD en route to a big day.
Chris Olave has been one the games premier deep threats this season with the 3rd most deep targets in the NFL.
And the Falcons defense has really struggled to defend the deep pass, allowing the 5th highest explosive pass play %.
With a 26% target share, look for Dalton to find Olave early and often en route to a big day.
Build on FD: +1934
Chris Olave TD& 110+ Yards Receiving
Andy Dalton 250+ Yards Passing
2. Story: Mclaurin feasts vs Giants man heavy scheme
No team plays more man coverage than the Giants, and following some injuries at CB, the team will be trotting out CB’s with PFF coverage grade ranks of 58.4, 47.4, 53.9– not exactly a model of success.
And as we studied at PFF this summer, man coverage more so than zone coverage, reflects the talent on the field. This could be an issue for the Giants given their secondary talent and their matchup against Terry Mclaurin.
Since Taylor Heinicke took over as QB, Terry McLaurin has dominated–especially against man coverage.
Mclaurin has the 7th best PFF grade, and 6th highest yards per route run facing man coverage. As the clear alpha in this offense and in a clear mismatch against this man coverage front, Mclaurin might feast on SNF.
Build on FD +1961
Terry McLaurin 110+ Yards & TD
Taylor Heinicke 250+ Yards Passing Terry McLaurin
Story: QB’s excel on MNF
Since their bye in week 7, the Rams have really struggled in pass defense with the 4th worst pass EPA allowed and 2nd to worst success rate allowed.
The Packers are not too far behind with the 10th worst dropback EPA and success rate allowed in that same time frame.
Worse is that these teams are getting absolutely shredded when teams choose to attack downfield per our above graph.
Both LA and GB, while struggling on offense this year, are both top 10 over the second half of the year in deep pass efficiency (yards per attempt and EPA) the exact areas both defenses struggle to defend. Of course, hitting on a few deep shots is exactly how the passing yards stack up quickly.
Build on FD +2072
Aaron Rodgers 275+ Yards Passing
Baker Mayfield 275+ Yards Passing
Good luck to all and let’s have ourselves a day— and be sure to tune in to to GameTrade to pitch some ideas live betting!