Week 16 Betting Gameplan

Tails & Matchup Angles + SGPs

As usual, in this note we’ll cover some tails angles not mentioned in the other spots, some matchups the market is perhaps overlooking and mispricing, and some SGPs.

Tails Angles:

Really not much else for me here besides what I have written below. Can make the case for a few cheaper QBs, though admittedly these lack the same conviction as the usual.

• My favorite of which is Zappe with a neutral matchup in DEN and with props still in the basement. What elevates this spot is that DEN has been shortening games and killing clock with their run game, but now face a NE Rush D’ first in virtually every category against the run. This should 1) slow down the efficiency of the DEN offense (which was already low to begin with) and 2) lead to more play volume for NE than the typical DEN opponent sees. This creates value on the volume side of things which matters more with a bad QB than when betting on an efficient one.

• I can’t argue against a dart on Bryce Young alts considering how low his prop numbers are considering his matchup facing GB. Again, as we saw with Rudolph last night, QBs can accidentally to have a league average or above average yardage game and I’m seeing a typical QB stat line for 900:1 out there.

• The Browns defense is reeling and the Texans have some of their skill position guys back. In what I think is one of the better systems in the NFL, with a great HOU Run D that should force Flacco to dropback another 35+ times, there’s a path for Keenum to put up 250 yards in a Texans win at juicy odds.

Matchup Angles

THE MIAMI DOLPHINS RECEIVERS GENERATE QUICK SEPARATION VS. THE DALLAS COWBOYS’ MAN-HEAVY DEFENSE

• No team has played more man coverage than the Dallas Cowboys, who have done so on nearly half of their defensive plays this season. 

• According to a 2022 study at PFF, man coverage tends to produce a true reflection of the talent on the field, as the better player will come out on top more often than not, whether that be the wide receiver or cornerback.

• Even though they have played man coverage at a league-high rate, the Cowboys' corners have struggled in man coverage. DaRon Bland has been particularly underwhelming in that regard, ranking in the 25th percentile at preventing separation in man coverage.

• No matter who they play, the Miami Dolphins offense will almost always present a mismatch. Very few players in the league are capable of covering Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who rank top-10 in virtually any metric capturing efficiency against man coverage.

• The Cowboys' pass defense has lived off a dominant pass rush that has generated a league-best 38% quick-pressure rate, a rate that is six percentage points greater than the next-closest team.

• However, the Dolphins offense is designed to mitigate quick pressure, as Tua Tagovailoa gets the ball out in 2.35 seconds on average, the quickest mark in the league. No pass rush can get to the quarterback that quickly.

• The Dolphins offense is special because of the receivers' ability to generate early separation and Tagovailoa’s ability to get the ball downfield quickly. And it will present a very tough test for a Cowboys defense that is priced as one of the most dominant units in the NFL.

Bets to make: I’ll be looking to bet the Miami Dolphins spread, Miami team totals and some same-game parlays with QB Tua Tagovailoa and his receivers putting up big numbers.

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THE TENNESSEE TITANS QUARTERBACK STRUGGLES AGAINST THE SEATTLE SEAHAWKS PASS RUSH

• Since Leonard Williams‘ arrival in Seattle, the Seahawks pass rush has sneakily become one of the best units in the NFL. 

• Over the last couple of months, Seattle has been at the very top of the league in pressure generated, whereas the Titans have allowed the second-highest pressure rate. And that mismatch will play a huge role in this game, given the Titans' quarterback situation. 

• Will Levis and Ryan Tannehill have both struggled to extend plays and avoid sacks and could struggle against a sneaky-good pass rush. 

• The Seahawks defense as a whole may be struggling, and that is the operative part of the market's pricing, but the team will be in a good spot against the Titans in Week 16. 

Bets to make: I’ll be looking to bet Titans QB passing unders, team total unders, Seahawks sack props and Seahawks spreads.

SGPs

STORY: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS QB GARDNER MINSHEW CARVES UP THE PASS-FUNNEL ATLANTA FALCONS

• The Colts have a Week 16 matchup with a pass-funnel Falcons team that is far easier to pass against than run against.

• The Falcons defense ranks 32nd in the league in quick-pressure rate entering Week 16, which should give Gardner Minshew time to work through his progressions and hit his targets.

• Minshew should still be able to perform even if the Colts need to become one-dimensional, as he ranks seventh at his position in expected points added (EPA) in obvious passing situations this season.

• He should also be dropping back to pass often, as the Colts have turned into a very pass-heavy team in recent weeks, with the team relying on Minshew to generate offense. Should the Colts win, it will likely be on the back of Minshew in a favorable spot.

PointsBet SGP Build: 50-1

• QB Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis Colts: 300+ passing yards

• Indianapolis Colts: -5.5

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STORY: CALVIN RIDLEY SHINES AS THE JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS’ PRIMARY TARGET

• No team has allowed more yards to wide receivers than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have surrendered 210 yards per game to the position this season.

• Part of the reason has been a failure to prevent explosive plays on defense, as the team has allowed the third-most explosive pass plays of 15 or more yards this season.

• Calvin Ridley has enjoyed a lot of success deep down the field and boasts one of the league's higher average target depths entering Week 16. He also possesses one of the best separation grades in the NFL.

• With Christian Kirk out for the year and Zay Jones set to miss this game, Ridley should see all the targets he can handle in this matchup.

Points Bet SGP Build: 25:1

• WR Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars: 95+ receiving yards

• WR Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars: 6+ catches

• QB Trevor Lawrence: 300+ passing yards

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MIAMI DOLPHINS WR TYREEK HILL EXPLODES AGAINST THE DALLAS COWBOYS’ MAN-COVERAGE UNIT

• As we discussed in our matchups column, no team has played more man coverage than the Dallas Cowboys, who have done so on nearly half of their defensive plays this season.

• According to a 2022 study at PFF, man coverage tends to produce a true reflection of the talent on the field, as the better player will come out on top more often than not, whether that be the wide receiver or cornerback.

• Tyreek Hill has arguably been the NFL's best wide receiver against man coverage this season, as he leads the NFL in yards per route run and is not far behind in terms of separation.

• Against a Cowboys defense that doesn't have one cornerback who is even above average when it comes to preventing separation in man coverage, Hill will have a massive matchup advantage and should see plenty of targets as a result.

PointsBet SGP Build: 35-1

• QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 325+ passing yards

• WR Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins: 155+ receiving Yards

• Miami Dolphins: Moneyline

That’s all for this week! As always, appreciate the support and spread the good word about Throwthedamball!