Week 16 Betting Gameplan
A full Week 16 slate on our hands, we are so blessed.
As always, we’ll discuss tails angles, matchups the market is I think not properly accounting for and some SGPs. Of course, there are plenty of tails angles within the SGPs and matchups to be played separately, and the goal is as always to match the research presented without your own thoughts. Apologies for typos, life in the way delaying this a bit and wanted to get this out ASAP!
Tails Angles:
Going to go quick hitter style today.
MIN:
JJM has been dreadful all season but the last 2 weeks have been a revelation for him, with 95%ile PFF grades and averaging 0.46 EPA/Play in each of the last 2 games both elite marks.
Now he gets a NYG defense 4th worst in pass EPA over the second half of the season, while allowing the 3rd highest deep attempt %— where JJM has done most of his damage. In a spot with conflicting long term and short data points—thus leading to a price anchored more to the season long— playing the tail of the short term ones while getting a terrific matchup is an appealing tails spot both for MIN and for JJM builds as well as SGPs of both.
