Week 16 Betting Gameplan Part 1:

I think we’re going to do this newsletter a bit different this week as I’m most of the way through the slate—but not fully— and we have some spots I think worth discussing for the Saturday games before doing the usual deep dive into the Sunday stuff (and I will be offline starting in a few hours until Saturday night).

We’ll discuss some thoughts on the Saturday games as well as the main tails write-up.

HOU-KC

I wrote up a matchup angle below, but I also want to add some extra ammo on why I am on the Houston passing tail. Despite their reputation as being a very run-heavy team, over the last month of the season they have the highest Pass Rate Over Expected (10%!!) and an even higher one on early down at 10.5%. The team in second? That would be KC who has also leaned into the pass of late as their success in the run game has dried up.

Now there are obvious question marks about the Chiefs offense with the Mahomes injury. It begins with questions about his effectiveness and his ability to create (and avoid sacks). And that is all reasonable if difficult to project. But we should also not forget that this is a Texans defense with the best Success Rate in the NFL and is top 5 against both the run & pass. Even if Mahomes is healthier than expected, the Chiefs might have a harder time churning out long drives and killing clock as they like to attack. Meaning, there are plenty of pathways for Houston to run plenty of plays against a KC— team much better stopping the run than the pass who usually sees more few plays against.

But let’s dive into a matchup angle to further make the case.

Matchup Angle:

Following the loss of Cornerback Jaylen Watson earlier this season, the Chiefs pass defense has been struggling immensely on defense—as we’ve talked about a whole bunch—especially with stopping explosive plays. Since his injury, the team is allowing the 5th most explosive passes and teams are attacking Kansas City deep at the 4th highest rate in the NFL.

And whereas Stroud and the Texans were so dominant throwing deep last season, the has shifted so far this year with the Texans struggling to generate explosives, 9th worst in the NFL.

But there is perhaps some reason for optimism for Stroud and the Texans offense here. Despite struggling from a performance perspective (EPA) his accuracy–which is 2nd best in the NFL– looks far better and suggests he’s likely been a bit unlucky while throwing deep. A matchup with the Chiefs defense that is perhaps overrated on account of past production and we have ourselves a nice tails spot, especially if the Texans defense has more success stopping the Chiefs offense with a hobbled Mahomes (and therefore allowing more play volume against than the Chiefs usually see)

I’ll be on Stroud and Texans alts along with SGPs of the Texans having success through the air.