Week 17 Betting Gameplan
Matchup & Tails Angles + SGPs
A glorious Week 17 New Years eve AM. As usual, in this note we’ll cover some tails angles not mentioned in the other spots, some matchups the market is perhaps overlooking and mispricing, and some SGPs. Apologies for typos— trying to get this note out quick.
Uncertain QBs:
One of the the main themes of the second half of the season and some of our biggest hits this season have been picking our spots with uncertain QBs in particular matchups where the right tail pricing likely has value. For our first-timers/ as a reminder here is the theory behind it: discussed at greater length in the Betting Gameplans for Week 11 & Week 12.
“We don’t have enough of a sample size to know whether or not these QBs are good, or better said for our purposes, whether or not they can put together a league average to slightly above average game. To varying degrees, markets are pricing each of these guys essentially saying that their 90-95 %ile passing yard game would be roughly NFL league average. But with such a small sample, we can’t possibly know, and certainly not with certainty, what each of these individual QBs right tail game might look like. There’s a big difference in my view in betting on a 90-95% ile game for any QB in the league as opposed to a (supposedly) bad QB putting together a league average yardage game. Not much needs to go right for an NFL QB to, even accidentally, throw for 225 or 250 yards in a game.”
Bryce Young:
Young put together his best game as a pro last week against a putrid GB defense. Was it fluky? Probably. But is there a chance Young is beginning to improve as a passer and can replicate this performance ? Absolutely. To begin with, QBs tend to improve as their rookie season goes along, and Young massively cut down on his time to throw/attempted play extension last week resulting in fewer sacks and more balls on target / not thrown away.
This is also a Jaguars defense top 5 in Rush Success Rate on defense, and has been bottom 5 against the pass by most metrics over the last 6 week. Adjusted for situation, opponents have thrown the 4th most often against them, setting up Young for more volume than his previous sample builds in — and of course should he continue in his development or even should he be on the right side of some variance he can hit some of those alt props in a Panthers win at very attractive pricing.
Jared Stidham:
We truly don’t know much about Stidham as a QB other than the few spot starts he made last season (again, case in point for our above theory). They value here likely derives in an expected change in gameplan from the Broncos who spent the first 6 weeks running a neutral run/pass split attacking downfield before deciding to go extremely run heavy+slow in an attempt to win the turnover battle and hide Russell Wilson. Perhaps I’m coaching my bet too much thinking the move to Stidham is a move back to a more balance pass-heavier attack (we can get perhaps get away with coaching bets when they’re 50/1 or 100:1) but the current pricing, especially looking at attempts, seems to indicate this is going to be a continuation of the Russ style with a run-heavy low play volume attack.
I’m going to fade that and bet on the Broncos coming out throwing more often and with success against a truly dreadful Chargers Pass D’. As a bonus, virtually the entire Chargers receiving room is out with injury and LAC has been unable to run no matter the opponent. This should lead to a bump in Broncos play volume (most teams run successful on Denver, bleeding clock etc).
Bailey Zappe:
Going back to the well with Zappe fresh off a 70:1 cash last week. This has more to do with my wanting to fade the Bills— a team that has run 6% over expected since Joe Brady took over— facing a NE defense #1 in virtually every rushing category. The Bills defense is not the same terrific matchup as our other plays— their pass rush has come on as of late— but Zappe has been operating the most quick game in the NFL (designed to mitigate a good pass rush) and has also been throwing deep with some success. Should NE win this game, I think it happens with leaning on Zappe in the quick game and having some deep variance to go their way. I’ll be throwing a dart on this outcome.
Jaren Hall:
Going on too long so will try and keep rest shorter. This is the archetype play of the uncertain QB— nobody can have a good sense of the distribution of outcomes for Hall. This is a guy who had a 10+ ADOT every year in college and has a dream matchup against the Packers. The Vikings have wanted to pass all season no matter the QB, and not every one of these QBs gets to have Justin Jefferson facing a GB secondary that is wanting to play more man coverage despite being at a severe talent mismatch. Jefferson’s snaps on Corey Ballentine can alone get us to the promised land here with some alt props.
MIA:
Yes, MIA is without Waddle and BAL had been an awesome defense this season. But this is also a BAL defense that has struggled from a yardage and explosive play standpoint the last 3 weeks as they’ve faced some of their toughest tests of the season. We’ve been talking all season about the Ravens weak slate of opponents propping up the scale of their good defense. Now that isn’t to say they aren’t a solid D, just that there’s certainly more uncertainty than market assumes and prices in, especially facing the # 1 offense in the NFL. The MIA D’ has come on as of late especially in their ability to stop the run which can push BAL out of their ball control mode with more incompletions and more drives/plays for MIA. Raheem Mostert is set to miss this game which can’t hurt the chances of MIA turning more pass-heavy than recent weeks.
HOU:
Not much else needs to be said here— I don’t love backing QBs their first week back from concussions but this a pass-funell Titans D’ and one that is very vulnerable to the deep passing game. Because of how often Stroud throws deep I’m more comfortable getting into deep alts with him (325s 350s etc) as he doesn’t need much play volume to arrive at those numbers. Keeping it simple; great player in a great matchup with depressed pricing for an unknown reason.
Leveraging Tails:
Bets :1) CIN -2.5 +280 2) Browning 300 + CIN -5.5 +3000
Let us set the base rate and expectations by looking above at how each team is moving the ball and earning points–designed to downweight fluky plays and instead capture how well teams move the ball in a sustainable fashion. And adjusting to more recent weeks, we can see that the Chiefs and Bengals have moved the ball at roughly the same rate, though the Chiefs have clearly maintained the stronger defense.
Similarly, looking at EPA/Play or Success Rate since Browning took over for the Bengals would suggest that the Bengals have been the better offense during this stretch. Yet, the Bengals still find themselves as 7 point underdogs despite this–suggesting some possible value on the Bengals side of the ball. But let’s explore deeper.
Matchup angle 1:
The Chiefs defense has played man coverage at a top 5 clip in the NFL, which has worked wonders for them with the best EPA/Play allowed on defense in man coverage.
A large reason for this success is surely how good their coverage corners have been (all 3 starters above 75th percentile in man coverage separation prevented. And it is in man coverage that tends to produce a true reflection of the talent on the field, as the better player will come out on top more often than not, whether that be the wide receiver or cornerback.
But precisely the source of this strength is an area where the Bengals are best suited to exploit them, as with Chase, Higgins, and Boyd they will be able to flip the usual script for the Chiefs and instead give the Bengals the man advantage, especially if L’Jarius Sneed misses the game to injury.
Further, Jake Browning has been absolutely dealing vs man coverage this season– in large part because of his willingness to hold the ball longer than a hurt Joe Burrow in man coverage allowing his receivers more time to run free and exploit their matchup advantage. Seen in this light, the advantage between defenses on the Chiefs side is slightly mitigated and brings these teams closer together from a fundamentals perspective.
Matchup Angle 2:
And we can likewise make the case on the flipside that the defensive gap is not as wide as our initial chart would suggest. Where the Cincinnati defense has struggled most is in their inability to prevent explosive plays, as they rank dead last in preventing explosive pass plays and explosive drives.
But in as much as they’ve struggled to defend explosive plays, KC’s offensive design is such that they are not primed to take advantage of this weakness. Mahomes has thrown nearly a 4th of his passes behind the Line of Scrimmage 2nd most in the NFL, has 3rd shallowest ADOT and, on the rare occasions they do throw deep, he and the Chiefs have the 4th worst Deep EPA. Everything is designed underneath with the team unable to generate anything explosive.
We know the Bengals want to throw– their pass expectation trend has remained fairly flat at 5% above expectation, top 5 in the NFL. The man coverage angles makes this a sneaky good spot for the Bengals passing offense relative to market pricing and 7 points is far too many points given the current outlook for each of these teams.
Matchup Angle:
Matthew Stafford cooks with the situational advantage.
In this space, we’ve frequently bet on Matthew Stafford, especially in spots where he has the situational advantage facing a team with a weak pass-rush and coverage unit. And until the market adjusts, this is a spot to continue to build around.
In a 2023 study we outlined how certain QBs are more or less situation dependent according to some of the traits they possess. For a QB like Matthew Stafford he lacks the mobility to extend plays that make him more situation agnostic. But Stafford is dominant in structure and when he faces little resistance from the defense, playing 90% in structure rather than 75% can be all the difference between a dominant and average game.
In terms of their ability to generate pressure and prevent separation, the Giants have been one of the worst units in the league, firmly in the left corner of this graph. This means the Rams should be able to have their way with the Giants, staying in structure and allowing Stafford the situation for him to excel.
I’ll be betting on the Rams offense via their alternative TT, spreads, and SGPs of Stafford and the Rams spreads.
SGPs:
Story: Derek Carr leans on Rashid Shaheed en route to Saints win
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have struggled to defend WRs all season, allowing a league leading average of 210 yards to the position, 12 more yards per game than Washington who has allowed the second most. Part of this has been a function of the Buccaneers struggling to defend the deep pass, allowing the 3rd highest rate of explosive plays this season.
Shaheed has one of the higher deeper route depths in the league while also maintaining a high level of separation, perfect for a matchup against a Buccaneers defense struggling in both areas.
Further, Shaheed is no longer being used as a part time WR as he was earlier in the season, the sample that comprises his price. Rather, Shaheed led the Saints WRs in snaps last week and his route tree has expanded beyond simple beyond a deep threat. He is every bit the legitimate WR2 in NO
Build:
Shaheed 95 Yards
Derek Carr 300 Yards
Story: Stafford Leans on Kupp vs blitz happy Giants
No Cornerback has been worse at preventing separation this season than slot Cornerback Cor’Dale Flott this season. And Flott will have his hands full in a matchup with Rams slot WR Cooper Kupp, who has continued to dominate this season at the top of the league in his ability to separate and in yards per route run.
Further, the Giants defense has blitzed more than 50% of the time this season, 2nd most in the NFL. Facing the blitz, Kupp has a 33% target share-- by far the highest on the Rams-- and has generated the 5th most separation when facing the blitz.
In a perfect matchup, look for Stafford to find Kupp early and often as they carve up the Giants secondary in a win.
Build: 35:1 on PB
Stafford 300 Yards
Kupp 125 yards
Rams -5.5
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