Week 17 Christmas Betting Gameplan
Happy Holidays to all!
We’ll cover the games for Thursday here in bullet point style, with an emphasis on the tails spots.
As always, the goal is as always to match the research presented without your own thoughts and bets. Apologies for typos, life in the way delaying this a bit and wanted to get this out ASAP!
DAL-WAS:
The matchup to me with the lowest variance here is the Cowboys offense against the Commanders defense. By any available metric on either side this is a top 5 Cowboys offense going up against a bottom 3 Commanders defense. And with injuries piling up to Washington defense— there is not a single player outside of Bobby Wagner with above a 55 PFF grade. The Cowboys, run and pass, should have success here. The question, I think is can the Commanders keep up.
On the one hand, the Cowboys defense has been atrocious all season—and especially in pass defense and in recent weeks where they are last in the league since week 11 allowing EPA/Play and 7.6 Yards Per Dropback. And with Quinnen Williams likely back— PFF’s #1 run graded defender— this is a run defense that should play to the top 10 quality as they’ve been in nearly every category with him healthy.
And where the DAL D’ has been salvageable is the pass rush which is top 10 in quick pressure, disruption pressure since Williams arrived. And with Laremy Tunsil out with an oblique injury, the team will have Brandon Coleman and his 49.6 PFF Pass Block Grade, leaving a key weak link for a pass blocking unit 6th highest in Perfect Block Rate and with the 7th best O-line grade as a whole. The Cowboys defense has a path towards success here with the pass rush against a banged up offensive line, and of course, with Josh Johnson at QB… there is a reason he’s been a career journeyman.
I think mostly likely outcome is a Cowboys romp and a game-state where the pass rush can cause problems, but I will also play the dart of Johnson able to mitigate the pass rush and pick apart this Cowboys defense that has been incapable of stopping anyone. The sample with Johnson is old and tiny— but the case for is that his create rate would rank towards the top of the league and his low sack rate and ability to extend plays unlocks the path to beat this Cowboys defense. Still with McLaurin, Samuel, and even Burks downfield for a Kingsbury offense that had Mariota throwing with the deepest ADOT in the NFL and there are paths to some passing upside as well. Priced extremely, negatively correlated my favorite angle is a Johnson passing yards with Cowboys spread/alts.
