Week 17 DAL vs DET
SGP & Matchup Angle
Just getting back online and seeing some off the work has not yet been published for game tonight. Apologies for multiple emails this week but will share an SGP/matchup angle. I’ll be back with the full regular email tomorrow AM.
Matchup Angle:
SGP:
Story: Lions to turn man-coverage-beater Jameson WIlliams in matchup vs man-heavy Cowboys D’
No team has played more man coverage this season than the Dallas Cowboys. Yet their corners have struggled to prevent separation against man coverage, especially their outside CBs Stephon Gilmore and Da’ron Bland who rank 40th and 15th percentile preventing separation respectively.
This sets up well for Jameson Williams who has dominated man coverage in his snaps this season with the 3rd most separation and highest Yards Per Route Run among all Lions WRs.
But aside from the matchup, much of the value of this bet derives in the role change Williams has seen over the last few weeks. For most of the games in the sample the books are likely using to price him, Williams was only a part-time player with ~40% of the snaps. That has been closer to 70% the past few weeks where he has also seen his route participation jump to close to 70%, again a big jump from the sample used to price him. Both volume and efficiency should be projected higher than the current sample used to price would give him credit for and
Build: 28:1 Points Bet
Jameson Williams 80 Yds
Jameson Williams anytime TD
Matchups
Matchup angle: Dak continues to carve up man coverage fronts
The market is already pricing in a premium for the Cowboys offense given how much the Lions defense has struggled. But even still there is room to make the case the market is still not properly considering the upside of this Cowboys offense.
Over the last 6 games, the Lions have begun to play far more man coverage, with the 5th highest rate of man coverage in the NFL. And according to a 2022 study at PFF, man coverage tends to produce a true reflection of the talent on the field, as the better player will come out on top more often than not, whether that be the wide receiver or cornerback.
For the Lions, Brian Branch has been absolutely dominant in man this season while Cam Sutton, Jerry Jacobs, Khalil Dhorsey have struggled immensely. But with Branch in the slot, he is still at a matchup disadvantage facing Ceedee Lamb who has been one of the more dominant receivers in man coverage and should mitigate the Lions best weapon defending man coverage.
Further, facing man coverage Dak Prescott and the Cowboys have been the most productive offense in the NFL by a decently wide margin with a 0.51 EPA/Play. And this is not simply a one year feature for Dak. His offenses have continually been at the very top of the league in recent years facing man coverages.
While the Lions should be able to score themselves in this matchup, leaving me off Cowboys spreads, I’ll be betting the overs for Dak props, Cowboys TT, and building in some SGPs of the Cowboys offense exploding.
As always appreciate the support and will be back tomorrow AM as usual