Week 17 Betting Gameplan

Tails & Matchup Angles + SGPs

Dec 27, 2024

I was initially going to write this as two separate notes but trying to get everything out now as we have most markets available. And as I will be offline until SAT night wanted to get everything out now before the games and for everyone to have plenty of time to sit with the research/data. The cost of this will sadly be that I did not have time to edit— there will be typos for sure and I apologize for that. Hopefully comes up somewhat readable and, hey, we’re here for the football info not the writing quality. Let’s get into it.

Thoughts + Tail Angles

LAC-NE:

We’ve been attacking the Patriots defense often this year given how much man coverage the team plays and that they don’t ordinarily have the personnel to win those 1-on-1 matchups.
Now the Chargers have one massive advantage with Ladd McConkey in the slot who has dominated man coverage this season with a 3.31 YPRR 5th best in the NFL. But even despite his production, the Chargers passing game has struggled against man. Herbert has the 3rd lowest completion % against man (45%) to go along with a 25th percentile EPA and 18th percentile Success Rate. And in man coverage Herbert looks much further downfield with an ADOT 3 yards higher than in zone coverage.
Now Herbert can certainly win in this matchup but the style of play lends itself to volatility. If he is succeeding throwing deep the Chargers should have their way and the Herbert alts are mispriced. But there is also a decent mass of probability of Herbert playing to his averages against man which would mean plenty of incompletions and short drives for the Chargers and a large play volume for the Patriots.
On the Patriots side, Maye continues to improve by any statistical count and had his 6th straight above average game from a YPA perspective this past week. Betting on his yards, conditional on the Chargers struggling to sustain drives (peep 45% completion %), the volume might just be on the Patriots side here.
In short, I see this as a spot with a wide range of outcomes. We could see the Chargers dominate through the air, but it’s equally plausible to see stalled drives and opportunities for Maye and the Patriots’ offense. This range of outcomes makes the SGP market an attractive way to approach this matchup.

DEN-CIN:

Spoke about this with Ben Linsey on the PFF NFL Betting Show, the Broncos have been tweaking their defensive coverage rates in Riley Moss’s absence, opting for less two-high and man-to-man coverage. Moss’s return could stabilize the secondary, but it’s unclear if Denver will revert to their earlier single-high looks or stick with the more conservative zone they’ve been running.
Frankly, I’m not sure it matters against a Bengals offense that’s clicking on all cylinders—assuming Tee Higgins suits up. If the Broncos shift back to their earlier defensive style, expect volume to flow heavily through Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase, who combine for an absurd 60% target share against man and single-high looks. If Denver sticks with softer zone coverage, targets may be more evenly distributed.
On the other side, Denver could lean on their rushing attack against a Bengals defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in virtually every run-defense metric. The challenge is predicting who gets the work in the Broncos’ backfield. With Jaleel McLaughlin back in the mix, the carries will likely go to the hot hand, making this a potential live-betting angle depending on who’s finding success.
If the Broncos commit to a run-heavy approach and eat up clock, that could play to the under, particularly for the Bengals’ passing game. Joe Burrow is implied for around 38 pass attempts, but a slower-paced, run-heavy game could suppress that volume.
Pre-flop, I don’t have strong convictions about how this game unfolds, but these are some angles I’ll be monitoring live.

IND:

Running out of time so going to keep quick: the Giants have been a major pass funnell over the last 6 weeks of the season middle of the pack defending the run but last in pass EPA allowed and not far behind in explosive plays etc. The Colts have been an extreme run heavy team but if they tilt a bit more to the pass in this matchup it is ideal for Richardson who will be looking deep ( or Flacco). With how low his props are and how often he throws downfield—highest in the NFL— a couple of successful deep shots can be the difference for a big tails day.

TB-CAR:

The Panthers are much easier attacked on the ground and through the air and the trendline has been only going up for Bucky Irving as far as his usage goes. And I would not be shocked to see that continue to increase making him an appealing DFS play or part of an SGP stack.
On the other side of the ball, TB is the biggest pass-funnel team in the NFL along with being the blitz heaviest team in the league. Efficiency has not been the problem for Young of late, but rather he has seen little volume with only 28 and 26 attempts the past 2 weeks. Against this TB defense so good against the run, I would not be surprised to see that number spike and for Young to have a bigger passing day as a result.

PHI:

Want to monitor the status of A.J Brown here but Picket has his props down in the basement and he’s up against a Cowboys defense that is last in separation allowed and has been abysmal in pass defense all season (in addition to the rush). Leaving efficiency aside for the moment, let’s consider some effects of Hurts to Pickett — 1) he gets rid of the ball far quicker which helps out his O-line against the strength of this Cowboys defense 2) He doesn’t scramble as often meaning more offensive dropbacks will result in passes=more opportunities for yards.
Small sample but Pickett was also throwing deep on 15% of his passes last week whereas Hurts has been sitting around 10%. And then consider that the Eagles defense is going up a Cooper Rush offense sans Ceedee Lamb who has basically accounted for all the Cowboys pass offense in Dak’s absence. There are paths to volume and efficiency for Pickett and his alts are a spot I will be attacking.

ATL-WAS:

Quite frankly I’m devastated this game is not on the DFS main slate because I think it is my favorite spot for offense. We don’t have much data to work with on Penix (duh) but his prop pricing is very low for the situation he is in. Yes, ATL was one of the run-heaviest teams the last few months but how much of that was a reaction to the QB play? That’s unknown and lends itself to some uncertainty for us to potentially capitalize on.
Penix mind you is not your typical rookie QB— 1) he is much older (a few season ending ACL injuries in college delayed his career) and 2) he’s making his 2nd start in Week 17 for a team leading the division. This means he’s had plenty of reps in practice and his surroundings are not that of a typical rookie QB with a terrific O-line and WRs in Mooney and London who in particular have dominated single coverage that WAS loves to employ. This is a defense vulnerable to the deep ball and I would not be surprised for ATL to rip it downfield and that concentration of targets is very appealing and leads to some interesting inverse correlations with the WRs.
(see below for WAS case) but tldr; this is a spot that I think has real shootout potential.

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Leveraging Tails:

Bets: GB -6.5 +235 (FD)

Let us begin, as usual, by looking to the team fundamentals to set the framework for our analysis.

According to our handy chart from PFF’s Timo Riske we see that the Packers have been the slightly better offense and defense than the Vikings for the season. And looking at EPA or various other efficiency metrics and it reveals a similar story of these teams being close together but with the Packers having a slight edge. It makes sense, then, that at home the Vikings are 1.5 point favorites.

But if we shaded to more recent weeks– in this case using EPA/Play and the GB bye as a benchmark– we see that the gap between these teams has widened.

Now of course EPA is not dispositive and not even that predictive but it illustrates the point that the Packers have performed far better in recent weeks if that sample were to have more weight.

Matchup Angles:

And let us not forget that this also coincides with Jordan Love getting healthy, having dealt with an MCL sprain and groin injury that he played through in the first half of the season. And the area in which loved improved most is in his performance against the blitz. As a QB who relies on his pocket mobility to buy time, Love struggled in the first half against the blitz with a -0.27 EPA/play in the first half. In the second half that number has flipped and Love is 0.24 EPA/Play against the blitz. He is also leading the NFL in YPA against the blitz at 10.3 yards, and has Now output stats can be extremely noisy as we said, but Love has been far better extending plays post bye/injury, especially against the blitz where he has been able to buy an extra 0.3 seconds of time on average from when pressure arrives. With the blitz, those extra 0.3 seconds go a long way in finding open receivers and generating production.

Now this angle in particular matters in this matchup against a Vikings team that blitzes on nearly half their dropbacks. And to the extent this is priced into the matchup–there are reasons to think it is not– the full season blitz numbers don’t tell the full story for the Packers. With a healthy Love, teams with heavy blitz rates are perhaps a spot in which we want to be betting on the Packers offense.

Further, the Vikings generate much of their defensive value from being able to stop the run. For the season, they rank 2nd in Rush EPA and 3rd in Rush Success Rate allowed. But the team also plays with light boxes which should in theory invite the run, and over the last 6 weeks of the season, the Vikings are in the bottom half of the NFL in Success Rate and EPA/play.

And even if the Vikings run D returns to their early season form, it might not matter given how well the Packers have been running the ball especially in sequence to their drives. This is a team that is just behind the Lions for the very best on run drives. The Packers might just be able to move the ball both through the air and on the ground.

On the flipside of the ball, the Packers defense has shifted schematically away from higher man and single coverage rates and have been a force generating disruption since their bye, with the 3rd highest disruption rate in the NFL at 52%.

Now this is especially relevant in a matchup with Sam Darnold who has been a completely different QB when undisturbed as opposed to facing disruption. On disrupted plays Darnold is a bottom tier QB, though kept clean on Jared Goff has been better from an EPA standpoint. And consider the rates here– Darnold has a 1.1 points per play differential between disturbed and undisturbed. He has faced a disruption rate of only 42% this season and should that rate increase closer to where the Packers have been in recent weeks, that could go a long way in determining the outcome of the game.

Bottom line: The Packers ability to move the ball on the ground and through the air should mitigate some of the value from the Vikings D’ and the Packers ability to generate disruption can cause problems for Darnold who has been reliant on staying in scheme for most of his production this year.

PS: How can you not bet on Dontavion Wicks on Chanukah? Couldn’t be me.

Matchups:

Angle: Daniels has clean pockets vs weak Falcons rush

It hasn’t been often that Jayden Daniels has clean pockets to work with–much of that is a function of play style and a high time to throw– but when kept clean he and the Commanders have performed at one of the highest levels in the NFL.

Daniels is 4th in the NFL in EPA on such plays despite seeing a clean pocket on only 45% of plays. But he now faces a Falcons pass rush that is bottom 5 in quick pressure (4th worst) and pressure disruption (3rd worst) and that has allowed QBs to throw from a clean pocket on a whopping 65% of plays.
This should leave plenty of time for Daniels to look downfield where the Falcons have struggled of late allowing the 5th worst explosive play rate and 3rd worst YPA allowed. With no pass rush to speak of, Daniels should have some success through the air in this matchup.
I’ll be on Daniels O’s as well as passing alts and SGPs of the Commanders winning through the air.

Matchup: 49ers burn Lions man-heavy front for explosive plays

The Lions defense, decimated by injuries, has struggled mightily in recent weeks, especially in preventing explosive plays. Over the last 4 weeks as the injuries have piled up, the Lions have allowed a dead last in the NFL 14% explosive play rate.
And as we studied in 2022 at PFF, generating explosive plays is essential to success in the modern NFL. Part of the reason why the Lions are prone to explosive is that they play more man coverage than any other team in the NFL which widens the distribution of outcomes especially with how much talent matters in man relative to zone coverage.

Perhaps in part because of the talent advantage the 49ers have over their opponents, Purdy and the 49ers have one of the highest explosive play rates against Man coverage.
With an only increasing rate of man coverage since the latest wave of injuries– between 50-55% of plays the last 3 weeks– and the Lions leave themselves vulnerable to the explosive plays from the 49ers.
Further, the Lions have played some of the highest rates of single high coverage where Purdy is 90th percentile in his explosive play rate.
While the Lions themselves can also score at will, leaving me off the sides in this game, I’ll be looking to the Purdy alt passing yards and 49ers points remain intriguing as well as SGPs on the 49ers having success through the air and via the deep ball.

SGPs:

Story: Tua connects with Hill en route to big passing day

While some teams alter their coverage depending on opponents, the Browns have consistently played in single-high looks no matter the opponent. This has left them vulnerable to deep attempts and explosive plays, allowing the highest deep attempt % in the NFL and the highest explosive play % in the NFL.

And despite the Dolphins struggles to throw deep–they have faced the lowest rate of single-high coverage this year– Tyreek Hill has still been very productive with a 2.75 YPRR, among the best in the NFL as well as still earning plenty of separation. And of course we have a large sample of data from the previous seasons of Hill dominating single-high and being a premier deep threat.
On the flipside, the Dolphins have struggled to run the ball and have been the pass heaviest team in the NFL since Tua came back. With Dorian-Thompson-Robinson on the other side, who has among the lowest YPA in NFL history, the Browns could struggle to move the ball leading to plenty of play volume and opportunities for Tua to connect with Hill.

Build: 30:1 on DraftKings

Tua 300 pass yards

Hill 110 rec yards

MIA -6

Story: Rudolph and Ridley hit on some deep balls

The Jaguars pass defense has struggled all season allowing a league high YPA and dead last in EPA/pass. The team has also played one of the highest rates of single coverage in the NFL, especially of late. Calvin Ridley has dominated targets for the Titans in single coverage seeing 27% of the targets en route to a terrific 2.35 YPRR while being well above league average in earning separation.

And like the Browns, the Jaguars have struggled to defend the deep ball and are only behind the Browns in the highest rate of explosive plays allowed.

And this is an area in which Ridley has excelled with one of the higher depths of targets and one of the best separation marks on deep routes.

And should Rudolph and Ridley connect on a few deep shots that is precisely what would propel each of these guys to go over their alternate lines in a game script that Tennessee, I think, is more likely in a Titans win and not loss despite it being priced the other way.

Build: 42:1 on DraftKings

Mason Rudolph 300 Yards

Calvin Ridley 120 Yards

TEN -3

Story: McMillian shines against Carolina man coverage

Since their bye in Week 10, the Panthers have played a top 5 rate of man coverage and have been consistent in their deployment of a high man coverage rate in each game. Now of course Mike Evans is set up exceptionally well in this spot too, but his prices reflect the massive role and expectation.

But Evans is not the only one who should have a big role against the Panthers man D. Jalen McMillan has been dominant in earning separation against man coverage with a top 5 mark in the NFL

And since the injury to Chris Godwin has seen a large target share and has led the team in routes run over the last month.

Build: 30:1 on Caesars.

Jalen McMillan 7 receptions + 90 yards + Anytime TD

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More in Depth thoughts on 6 games below on PFF Betting Show with the GOAT Ben Linsey.