Week 17 Betting Gameplan

Tails & Matchup Angles + SGPs

I was initially going to write this as two separate notes but trying to get everything out now as we have most markets available. And as I will be offline until SAT night wanted to get everything out now before the games and for everyone to have plenty of time to sit with the research/data. The cost of this will sadly be that I did not have time to edit— there will be typos for sure and I apologize for that. Hopefully comes up somewhat readable and, hey, we’re here for the football info not the writing quality. Let’s get into it.

Thoughts + Tail Angles

LAC-NE:

• We’ve been attacking the Patriots defense often this year given how much man coverage the team plays and that they don’t ordinarily have the personnel to win those 1-on-1 matchups.

• Now the Chargers have one massive advantage with Ladd McConkey in the slot who has dominated man coverage this season with a 3.31 YPRR 5th best in the NFL. But even despite his production, the Chargers passing game has struggled against man. Herbert has the 3rd lowest completion % against man (45%) to go along with a 25th percentile EPA and 18th percentile Success Rate. And in man coverage Herbert looks much further downfield with an ADOT 3 yards higher than in zone coverage.

• Now Herbert can certainly win in this matchup but the style of play lends itself to volatility. If he is succeeding throwing deep the Chargers should have their way and the Herbert alts are mispriced. But there is also a decent mass of probability of Herbert playing to his averages against man which would mean plenty of incompletions and short drives for the Chargers and a large play volume for the Patriots.

• On the Patriots side, Maye continues to improve by any statistical count and had his 6th straight above average game from a YPA perspective this past week. Betting on his yards, conditional on the Chargers struggling to sustain drives (peep 45% completion %), the volume might just be on the Patriots side here.

• In short, I see this as a spot with a wide range of outcomes. We could see the Chargers dominate through the air, but it’s equally plausible to see stalled drives and opportunities for Maye and the Patriots’ offense. This range of outcomes makes the SGP market an attractive way to approach this matchup.