Week 17 Sunday Gameplan
SGP's, Tails Angles, GameTrade
Happy New Years to all!
I hear there is no better way to spend new years day than watching and live betting the Sunday football games. Join us for GameTrade and pitch some trade ideas for us all to profit and enjoy betting and watching football together!
In this note, we will cover deep out-of-money SGP bets, some tails angles I’m looking to capitalize on, and we’ll have a link to the PFF Forecast with in game strategy and, well, the alt line of the week already cashed on TNF.
SGP’s
Story: Jets lean on Davis to defeat Seahawks zone heavy scheme.
The Seahawks have been among the most zone heavy teams in the NFL, running zone coverage close to 85% of the time. And this zone scheme has been very beatable with the 6th worst Dropback EPA allowed.
While Garett Wilson has been dominant in his rookie season, it has been Corey Davis–when healthy– that has done the most damage against zone coverage.
Davis leads the team in yards per route run and has done a good job separating as his PFF grade indicates. While healthy, Davis has earned a strong role on the Jets; he led the team in routes run last week with 41. Look for Mike White and the passing offense to have more success and lean on Davis in doing so.
FD +3706
Corey Davis TD
New York Jets ML
Corey Davis 90+ Yards Receiving
Story: Bridgewater excels in Tua’s stead.
The Dolphins passing game has been priced at a discount, likely a function of Bridgewater replacing Tua and because the Patriots D’ ranks first in EPA.
But (with success), we’ve been fading the Patriots pass D for weeks now on the assumption that their high EPA ranking is mostly a product of playing backup QBs.
With Hill and Waddle both top 5 in Yards Per Route Run and with McDaniel still calling the plays, there is plenty of room for offensive efficiency and volume for the Dolphins passing game. The team passes 5% over expectation, and there is little to suggest Bridgewater is a clear and obvious downgrade from Tua. In the small sample we do have— Bridgewater’s one start—he threw for 330 yards and both Hill and Waddle well exceeded 100 yards receiving.
Build: FD +8459
Teddy Bridgewater 325+ Yards Passing Game
Jaylen Waddle 100+ Yards Receiving
Tyreek Hill 100+ Yards Receiving
MIA ML
Story: Jaguars Play starters full game and win through the pass
The Jaguars are only 3 point favorites against the lowly Texans, likely because of the fear the Jaguars don’t have much to play for.
But the Jaguars have made clear they intend to play their starters and they still have what to play for as PFF’s Timo Riske showed.
Now if the Jaguars are playing their starters, they are priced at a serious discount.
Since Week 9, Trevor Lawrence has been perhaps the best producing QB in the NFL. The matchup has been mostly irrelevant as Lawrence has put up numbers no matter the opponents.
Should Lawrence play a full game here, the matchup is unimposing especially on the inside where Kirksey and Harris roam in coverage.
Look for Lawrence to continue to cook and find Engram and Kirk over the middle of the field to take advantage of the Texans where they are weakest.
Build: FD +3521
Lawrence 300+ Passing Yards
Engram 80+ Receiving Yards
Kirk 60+ Receiving Yards
Jaguars ML
Tails Angles:
Editors note: For all the above reasons, I will be playing Lawrence+Jags spread, and deep out of the money Teddy+ Dolphins spreads— just doesn’t warrant a redundant section here.
DET Passing Game and spreads:
Jared Goff sits alone in a tier of QB’s producing at elite level without facing quick pressure (pressure before 2.5 seconds) but playing below average when seeing the quick pressure.
Good news for Goff is that CHI generates quick pressure only 16% of the time 3rd worst in the NFL. FWIW this is nearly 2 standard deviations worse than the mean. And of course, the Bears have the worst Pass D by EPA and worst Drive Quality.
Further bolstering the case for passing yards, is that DET is one of the pass heaviest teams nursing a lead. When up by a score, the team passes nearly 10% more than expected. While in general, markets price an inverse relationship between passing yard overs and winning by greater margin, DET’s tendencies suggest that relationship should be otherwise.
Selling the Packers D’ via Kirk + MIN ML/spreads
After a slew of injuries on the D-line, the vaunted Packers D’ hasn’t been too threatening. The team is 2nd to last in quick pressure generated over the second half of the season and the result is that GB has the 4th worst Drive Quality over that span.
We know how MIN wants to win— they pass 4% more than expected and Kirk has dialed up 35+ pass attempts all but one game since the Vikings bye in week 7. Volume should accumulate against an easier than perceived matchup against GB.
The GB offense has certainly been on a tear, but I don’t think the Christian Watson injury—even if he battles it out to play— should go unrecognized. His emergence as the ability to win 1-on-1 and as the deep threat for Rodgers would be sorely missed and is not easily replaced. The market is riding the GB wave, but I’m not so sure we won’t get a classic Vikings one score- win against a GB team with some serious question marks the market is seemingly overlooking.
Browns:
As data driven as I am, sometimes you have a feeling in your bad knee and that you just have to listen to. I’ve got that feeling in my bad knee that we’re going to see a big day from Watson and the Browns—I’ll be playing some Watson 300+ Browns -5.5 +3800.
Early Week Media:
PFF Forecast: Talk through some in-game strategy(26:30-35)
Good luck to all today and let’s have ourselves a day— and be sure to tune in to GameTrade to pitch some ideas live betting!