Week 18 Betting Game Plan Part 1

Jan 05, 2024

As I’m offline tomorrow, a few thoughts on the Saturday games before the ordinary Sunday Betting Gameplan note comes out.

BAL vs PIT:

This will certainly be a common theme throughout this week, but I’m, unsurprisingly, looking to play many of these fill-in QBs with massive uncertainty on the tails. For those new, can read about the theory here.
As a general note for this week, I’ll be working under the assumption that once the game begins everyone will be playing at full force. It is one thing to make personnel decisions that rest certain players, but once the game begins, I think, it is all systems go. The cliche of “players are competitors “ is certainly true and everyone wants to get out good take, especially the backups. Huntley and the Ravens may be going in with a weaker cast but surely, once the game begins, they will play to win as they would any other (and FWIW Huntley is a FA after the season).
So why is this a spot to play the uncertainty and buy the tails? The sample the books are mostly use to price Huntley consists in the run-heavy Ravens team of last year. But this team is not schemed the way they were last season with the run-heavy Greg Roman offense.

Consider that the Ravens, largely a product of scheme, have gotten their WRs open more than any other team so far this season. While resting of their guys will likely diminish productivity, the scheme and tendencies which created this situation should still remain in place. This is to say the offense is not the same as last year. The run game is worse (and now extremely banged up) and the pieces are in place schematically and stylistically for the Offense to be more efficient and downfield oriented than the sample built into Huntley’s price. Especially considering the circumstances, not much needs to go right in order for Huntley to hit (Huntley 250 yards is 12:1!!).
It doesn’t hurt that the Steelers D’ has functioned as a major pass-funell with a healthy Cam Heyward, and that the team is allowing a bottom 5 rate of explosive plays— 1 or 2 big plays could be all the difference here.
I’ll be playing the usual Huntley + spreads and if we can get some rushing props (esp rushing attempts) I’ll be layering in those as well.

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Matchup Angle: Stroud Dominates Against Weak Colts Pass Rush

We’ve been frequently wanting to bet on C.J Stroud in spots where his pocket is kept clean and where he can exploit teams deep. After all, as many PFF studies have demonstrated, play without pressure is far more stable than play with pressure and Stroud has excelled when his pocket is kept clean.

Stroud and the Texans have the 2nd highest EPA/Play on plays without pressure. But under pressure Stroud and the Texans have the 6th worst EPA/Play. This is to say: Stroud is more sensitive to pressure than most QBs and, because of this discrepancy, the matchup for Stroud matters a bit more than for most other QBs.

And facing the Colts this week Stroud figures to have plenty of time as the Colts have been among the weakest pass rush units this season right along the cluster of the worst in the NFL.
This should lead to a few more plays with clean pockets than the Texans regular sample which can be all the difference considering how dominant Stroud and the Texans perform throwing deep, where his EPA/Play is at 1.15 only behind Purdy and the Niners and.
Facing a Colts defense allowing a bottom quartile rate of explosive pass plays and playing the most zone coverage in the NFL–where Stroud is 95th percentile in EPA/play– Stroud is in a terrific spot to build on his success. I’ll be betting on HOU +Stroud overs/alt overs and different SGP variations.
I’d also just add as we talked on the PFF Forecast this week that 1) Nico Collins has been top 10 in virtually every category facing zone coverage this season 2) Stroud has been able to elevate virtually all of his WRs this season— if we can get some alts on secondary receivers, I’ll be taking my shots there.