Week 18 Betting Gameplan

Tails & Matchup Angles SGPs

Sad to think this our last full slate of the season is on tap. But let’s dive into it with the usual tails angles not mentioned in the other spots, some matchups the market is perhaps overlooking and mispricing, and some SGPs. Apologies for typos— trying to get this note out quick.

Tails Angles:

FIll in QBs:

• If we get props available I’m going to want to take my shot with some fill-in QBs for teams who have clinched/locked in playoff spots. I work under the assumption that once the game begins everyone will be playing at full force. It is one thing to make personnel decisions that rest certain players, but once the game begins, I think, it is all systems go. The cliche of “players are competitors “ is apparent and everyone wants to get out good tape, especially the backups. A quick few lines of additional context for some of these plays.

• Blaine Gabbert: This is still an Andy Reid offense in a great matchup vs the Chargers with the team as sizeable underdogs. The usual logic of not much needs to go right here applies, and especially if we can get some Justyn Ross props, that’s a stack I’ll be all over.

• Jeff Driskel: Again, this is a QB attached to a well designed offense facing a CIN defense that, even at full strength, has been one of the worst units in the NFL bleeding explosive plays.

Not much else on this end, though I like the QB+ spread plays on their own for the WR SGPs which we’ll get into in more detail below. And, of course, my favorite tails play, highlighted in “Leveraging Tails” article, is right below.

Leveraging Tails:

Bet: Jared Goff 300 Passing Yards & Detroit Lions -4.5 (+3000)

• First, let's establish the base expectations by looking at how well the Lions have “earned points” by sustainably moving the ball on offense and preventing opponents from doing the same (EDP).

• If we account for the full season but weigh recent weeks more heavily, we can see that the Lions are far superior on offense but have struggled on defense. Meanwhile, the Vikings are right about average on both sides of the ball. 

• However, the Lions have been the drivers of play and consistently outperformed their opponents' (rolling) defense averages. They have scored 0.6 points more points per drive on average than their opponents had been letting up coming into this game.

• Detroit has been more or less matchup-agnostic all season, while the Vikings' defense has allowed each of its last three opponents to perform better than their offense averages coming into the game.

• Since Kirk Cousins went down in Week 8, Minnesota has consistently underperformed in their matchups, moving the ball 0.33 points less than the opposing defenses had been allowing.

• Both charts taken together would suggest that the Lions offense is the dispositive unit in this game and neutralizes the Vikings defense, while the Vikings offense has been incapable of taking advantage of good matchups, neutralizing the effect of how bad the Lions defense has performed of late.  

Matchup Angle

• Despite blitzing a league-high 55% of the time, the Vikings have struggled to generate pressure all season, posting the fourth-lowest pressure rate and seventh-lowest quick-pressure rate.

• Meanwhile, Jared Goff and the Lions have produced one of the more drastic splits in the NFL when it comes to passing with and without pressure. The team falls around league average when Goff doesn't face pressure but has generated the fourth most expected points added (EPA) when pressure doesn't materialize.

•Jared Goff should face little pressure against a weak Vikings pass rush, allowing the Lions to excel on offense — as they have all season.

Matchup Angle:

Matchup Angle: Baker Mayfield picks apart Panthers D’ leading NFL in coverage mistakes

• A summer 2022 PFF study, “The Effect of Perfectly Covered Plays on NFL offenses,” introduced the concept of perfect coverage looking at how even one coverage mistake go a long way in determining the outcome of a play, whereby everyone locking down in coverage effectively eliminated the chance for success for an NFL offense. 

• Now despite performing far better as of late, the Panthers D’ has been especially vulnerable to making coverage mistakes– with the lowest rate of perfect coverage over the last 2 months of the season. But playing mostly bottom feeder offenses, their opponents have yet to take full advantage of this defensive weakness. 

• Enter Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers who have been terrific at punishing defenses for making coverage mistakes as Mayfield has been right around league average when the defense creates perfect coverage, but has been one of the best in the NFL when the team makes a mistake. 

• I’ll be betting on Mayfield to continue his resurgence and for the Buccaneers to score plenty through the air–even against a weak Panthers rush defense. 

SGPs

Story: Rashid Shaheed dominates vs Pass Funnel Falcons

• We are going back to the well with Rashid Shaheed who has been terrific in virtually every facet of the game so far this season.

• Shaheed ranks at the very top of the league in: separation, catchpoint, after the catch and is top 10 in deep separation as well.Shaheed, though, was only a part time player for most of the season not turning his elite fundamentals into elite numbers. But over the last few weeks has been the clear second receiver to Chris Olave running close to 80% of his teams routes. 

• Meanwhile the Saints have a matchup against a Falcons D’ far easier to throw against than run against as the Falcons are #1 in Rush EPA Allowed but only middle of the pack in Dropback EPA. Shaheed has a terrific matchup in the slot against fill-in Mike Hughes who has been bottom 20% in terms of his ability to prevent separation. 

Build: Points Bet 25:1

Derek Carr 275 Yards

Rashid Shaheed 110 Yards

Story: Jalin Hyatt catches deep TD vs vulnerable Eagles secondary 

• Darius Slayton has been the beneficiary of multiple Tyrod Taylor bombs in recent weeks but it is Jalin Hyatt who has a similar role leading the NFL in depth of target while also performing well above average at the catchpoint and after the catch. That is to say: he has multiple avenues to beat you for a deep bomb. 

• The matchup for Hyatt is terrific facing an Eagles secondary allowing the 4th most separation while being bottom quartile in explosive plays allowed as well as depth of target. 

• Despite not popping off for a big game in recent weeks, the role remains secure and Hyatt, specifically in this matchup, is a threat to pop and hit on a huge play en route to a big day. 

Build: Points Bet 35:1

Hyatt 80 Yards Receiving

Tyrod Taylor 275 Yards passing

Justin Fields leans on DJ Moore in Bears win

• Since Justin Fields returned from injury, D.J Moore has seen a whopping 34% of the target share as the unquestioned WR1 for the Bears. And over the last 6 weeks, only the Lions have allowed more yards to WRs than the Packers. 

• And while the Bears began the season as a run heavy offense– the primary sample built into the Fields props–  the team over the last bunch of weeks has been far pass heavier giving Fields more volume to exploit this vulnerable Packers defense. 

• With one of the best roles in the league, in a great matchup and on an offense not priced for their current mode of attack, look for D.J Moore to finish his strong season with a huge last game. 

Build: 100:1 on Points Bet

D.J Moore 140 Yards

D.J Moore 7 Receptions

Justin Fields 275 Yards

Chicago Bears Moneyline

That’s all for today— as always, appreciate the support and please help to spread the good word about throwthedamball. We’ll be back next week for the playoffs!