Week 18 Betting Gameplan:

Tails Angles

Hard to believe we are already at Week 18, season really went by far too quick.

In many ways this week mirrors the pre-season where information on player participation and news reigns supreme in understanding and betting the slate. This does lead to some natural uncertainty which has its tail possibilities and we will cover some of those spots.

And as a result of this uncertainty, we have few markets up and a more limited slate of options to bet on…. I tried to wait as late as I could on this font for more markets, but alas it is very weak right now.

All of this is to say the way this sets up is different than our typical week and the structure of our note will also be different. We will just cover some tails angles. And if we get more markets for SGPs before kick then perhaps I will send another note before kick.

Tails Angles:

MIA:

• The Jets pass defense has been a unit we’ve been attacking over the last few months of the season. And over the last few months this team has been the biggest pass funnell in the NFL and have allowed a league worst EPA/Pass and Success Rate.

• The Dolphins, in Huntley’s first game continued with their pass-heavy ways throwing 5% over expected, far different than the rates for when Huntley got starts earlier in the season. But considering how much the Dolphins have struggled on the ground and given the time, familiarly in the offense, and the matchup I think we can see Huntley throw often and with success. And with Waddle likely back that should only help the passing efficiency. With Huntley’s props in the basement on both the attempts and yardage front his alts look extremely appealing, especially in a game script with a Dolphins win.

NYG:

• The Eagles are going to be resting the entirety of the team, it seems, including most of their defense. And Lock’s pricing mirrors that of his medians so far this season. But against the Eagles backups, this should figure to be an above average matchup for Lock. And the Giants are seemingly playing to win and have been a pass over expectation team in Lock’s starts. Lock should be throwing often against a backup defense and facing third stringers on the other side offering potential for even greater play volume for the Giants.

SF:

• The 49ers are very hurt and have nothing to play for from a playoffs perspective, but the players playing will all have incentive to play. And this is still a Kyle Shanahan offense getting 4.5 points against a Cardinals defense bottom in the league in virtually any metric on both the pass defense and rush defensive front. Plenty of game scripts to build of the 49ers narrowing in on their current players and for Shanahan and co to finish this game strong.

IND:

• The Jaguars defense has struggled all season to defend the pass where they have the worst EPA/Play allowed of any defense in the NFL. And where they have especially struggled is in their inability to prevent explosive plays where the team has allowed a league high explosive pass play rate this season.

• And for the season both Colts QBs have been among the most aggressive deep throwers in the NFL doing so at some of the highest rates in the NFL. At the time of this writing it seems likely as though Flacco will be starting and, as you can see, he has enjoyed more success throwing deep than Richardson.

• Especially if Flacco is starting to look for him to continue throwing deep and connecting against the leagues worst defense at defending such plays. Of course, by nature the explosive plays are terrific for racking up alt yardage and scoring points quick making the Colts, Joe Flacco alts, Colts WR alts and SGPs all intriguing in this matchup.

That is all for now! As always, appreciate the support and will be back for the playoffs next week with our regular gamplean outline and structure.