Week 18 Sunday Gameplan
SGP's, Tails Angles, GameTrade
Happy Sunday!
Come join us at 1PM ET today for GameTrade. Pitch some trade ideas for us all to profit as we enjoy betting and watching football together!.
In this note, we will cover deep out-of-money SGP bets, some tails angles I’m looking to capitalize on, and we’ll have links to the early week media.
SGP’s
While same-game parlays (SGPs) are big money-makers for sportsbooks, that does not mean betting edges don’t exist. SGPs offer two unique opportunities unavailable in other markets: They uniquely tell a story that we can create through props, spreads and totals, and they allow us to combine outcomes that are correlated through a particular game angle but will not be priced into the odds set by books.
The goal in this space is to hit on SGPs that either tell unique stories about games and/or uncover correlated outcomes available only in the SGP market.
Editors note: This week is certainly on the thin side in terms of available props(booo Sportsbooks). But worry not, there should still be room to cash on our SGP’s.
Story: Cooper dominates Steelers man coverage
The Steelers have played the 4th most man coverage in the NFL, which could be an issue facing Amari Cooper and the Browns…
Cooper not only has dominated man coverage as you see above—with the second best separation grade— but he also has a massive 32% target share against man coverage.
Further solidifying the case is that the Steelers defense has allowed the highest rate of explosive pass plays in the NFL, doing so on nearly 10% of passes.
With a still bottom Steelers offense and a Browns defense peaking at the right time, a few big plays to Cooper might be the necessary scoring for the Browns to win a tight one-score game.
FD Build: +2698
Amari Cooper 100+ Yards
Amari Cooper TD
Cleveland Browns (-5.5)
Deshaun Watson Over 207.5 Passing Yards
Story: Rodgers leans on Watson & Lazard en route to GB win.
GB’s attempted 87 deep passes this year, 4th most in the NFL.
DET invites many deep passes and they have struggled to defend those throws, allowing 5th most yards per deep attempt.
Since Christian Watson emerged in week 10, both Watson and Lazard have seen the lions share(ha) of deep targets on the team–75% of deep passes– and should be the recipients of a few deep passes each to pad their receiving yards.
It doesn’t hurt that when facing man coverage, Lazard and Watson have combined for a huge 58% target share, and DET has played man at the 3rd highest rate in the NFL.
Look for Rodgers to lean on the two heavily and to hit a deep shot or 2 to each en route to Packers locking up the #7 seed.
FD Build: +2452
Christian Watson 70+ Yards Receiving
Allen Lazard 70+ YardsReceiving
Aaron Rodgers 275+ Yards Passing
Green Bay Packers -4.5
Story: Geno leads SEA past pass-funnel LAR.
The Rams D’ Pass EPA is nearly 0.2 points worse than their run defense making them on the biggest pass funnel teams in the NFL.
Passing 3% over expected and with the matchup pointing in the direction of passing, and a playoff berth on the line, look for Geno to throw early and often against the Rams.
When Geno drops back to throw, we know he’ll be looking for Lockett and Metcalf. If Geno is to have a big day he will surely bring those two along for the ride.
FD Build: +2935
Geno Smith 300+ Yards Passing
DK Metcalf 80+ Yards Receiving
Tyler Lockett 80+ Yards Receiving
Seattle Seahawks (-5.5)
Matchup Angles
I should note: for many of the above plays and, for the same reasons as above, I’m bullish on some mini SGP’s (alt player props & spreads) in these 3 games. Do with that what you will. But here are some additional ones.
Flacco+NYJ: It feels really ugly, but the Jets are unafraid to allow Flacco to throw—attempts of 59/44/52 in his three starts. Sure game script played a role in those gaudy attempt numbers, but the principle remains the same: Flacco will throw. Add in the data from our graph in SEA-LAR SGP, that MIA is 4th biggest pass funnel, and there are reasons to believe Flacco can put up some volume against MIA’s poor pass D’.
BUF: We’ve been fading NE’s Pass D every week for a while now, and Allen’s props are depressed. I don’t mind backing Allen at his passing props and the Bills to cover a -5.5.
While the props are thin as of right now, if any props are released following this publishing—leading to some mini SGP’s I like— I will be sure to tweet it out.
Early Week Media
My apologies for not sending an early week email, but IYCMI and want some last minute Sunday prep, here is a link to the PFF Forecast for alt lines + live betting strategy & Week 18 Betting Market Outloook where we go game by game.
Again, 1PM GameTrade stream. Be there and let’s profit and have a good time .