Week 2 Betting Gameplan

Tails & Matchup Angles + SGPs

Sep 15, 2024

A glorious September Sunday— we are so blessed.

As usual, in this note we’ll cover some tails angles (those not covered in other pieces), some matchups the market is perhaps overlooking and mispricing, and of course some SGPs. Again, time is tight so apologies for the typos. Last week upon a re-read was egregiously bad, I am sorry about that.

Tails Angles:

We cover many of my favorite spots in the articles below, but some additional quick hitters on other spots I’m looking at.

NO:

Talked about this on the PFF Betting Show this week, but the NO offense has a right tail I am willing to chase. The Saints were in the bottom of the league in motion and play action over the last few seasons, but used both at a top 3 rate in Week 1. Notably, the team allowed some of the fewest pressures and had the best PFF Pass Block Grade on the slate. Now some of that is likely a function of playing the atrocious CAR Pass Rush. But there is also a chance new OC Klint Kubiak will be able to scheme his way out of pressure similar to how Kyle Shanahan and Mike McDaniel have been able to with mid-bad O-lines over the last few seasons.
DAL, of course, has a dominant D-line, but has some of the most drastic splits in results over the last few years when generating pressure vs not. If pressure does not arrive, this is not a particularly great secondary unit. This is to say: if Kubiak is able to mitigate pressure schematically this is a sneaky good spot for the Saints. Of course, the “if” is doing a lot of work here, but we’re betting on tails and not medians :)
And we have long talked in this newsletter about QB traits— how certain QBs need good surroundings more than others. Derek Carr is the classic example of a QB who cannot create much on his own, but can execute well within good offensive structure. If Kubiak is a legit top offensive mind, Carr should have no problem producing and I want to be early to the Saints right tail.

IND vs GB:

Wrote my case for the Colts more in depth here, but another way to attack is to bet on GB to remain extremely run heavy and the Colts to still win comfortably. I do love a nice inverse correlation. Emmanuel Wilson anyone?

CAR:

I might be the only one but I am not ready to quit on Bryce Young yet, especially given the update in pricing. Football is extremely path dependent and going down 2 scores right off the bat is not exactly the best setup for success (nor is it how most games will likely go). This is to say we haven’t learned that much, I think, from one game. All of the reasons for optimism in the off-season still do apply.
The Chargers defense was bottom of the league last week in preventing separation and in most pass efficiency metrics last week. It’s not a good unit and the offense struggled mightily outside of a long JK Dobbins run so there might be plenty of volume to go around.
Not that much needs to go right for Carolina to get the win and young to have a slightly above average NFL passing day. And the odds of this outcome are priced as a serious longshot.

TEN:

Week 1 served as a good reminder of the fragility of defenses year-over-year. The Jets defense struggled last week, full stop. But it is still priced as the elite unit from last season, even though the pass-rush got significantly worse over the offseason and the team struggled to generate any pressure in Week 1 (22nd in quick pressure rate). It’s not the same defense.
I am not overreacting to one game with Levis and Deandre Hopkins should see many more receiving snaps than the 9 he played last week. All of the reasons to still like Levis from a passing yards perspective—high passing volume offense+deep shots are still present. And the Jets D is not the 2022-2023 version. With prices so depressed I’ll be looking to the Levis alts here and a Titans win on the alt spread.

I wanted to attach the matchup angles but Substack is already cutting me short. Can read here about some matchups I think the market is not calibrated well enough to.

Leveraging Tails:

Bet 1: Las Vegas Raiders moneyline (+350 on BetMGM/FD)

Bet 2: QB Gardner Minshew, Las Vegas Raiders: 275 passing yards and Las Vegas Raiders -4.5 (45-1 on DraftKings) — (the 4.5 keeps moving in availability, -3 at 37:1 is good as well)

Let’s start by looking at the team fundamentals to better understand what the market might be factoring in. A helpful metric for this is Earned Drive Points (EDP), which gives us an idea of how well teams can move the ball and put points on the board.

This graph shows that last season, the Ravens were dominant on defense and above average on offense, while the Raiders were slightly above average on defense but struggled offensively.

Given that, it's understandable why the line is set at more than a touchdown in favor of the Ravens, as this aligns with last season’s data, whether through EDP or other efficiency metrics.

However, early in the season, the challenge is adapting to the new information and balancing offseason priors to identify the most relevant data. Much of the Ravens' offseason talk has centered around their defensive losses, including four starters and defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald. Despite this, the market still views the Ravens as having an elite defense, as indicated by the Raiders’ projected total of 16 points, the lowest total on the slate as of Saturday night.

But this is not the same defense we saw last season.

While Week 1 is by no means dispositive, it should raise some concerns that the Ravens' defensive line was below average in generating quick pressure. And unlike regular pressure, quick pressure is more dependent on the pass rush's ability to win matchups and less influenced by the quarterback’s play.

On paper, this isn’t a dominant pass rush. Over the past three seasons, among players with 100 snaps per season, only Odafe Oweh (2023) cracked the top 100 in PFF's pass-rush grades, ranking 98th. This doesn’t mean the Ravens' defense can’t be good, but without Mike Macdonald orchestrating sim pressures, this is a different defensive unit than the market perceives.

Additionally, more attention should be given to the Ravens’ offensive line, which lost key pieces over the offseason, creating further uncertainty for this team’s overall performance.

Ronnie Stanley and Tyler Linderbaum are both excellent at their positions, but the Ravens' other three offensive linemen pose significant issues. All three grade out as well below average, creating weak links for the offense.

In Week 1, the Ravens allowed the second-most quick pressures of any team in the NFL, struggling as is often the case for teams dealing with offensive line turnover and underperforming players.

The Raiders defense wreaked havoc on the Chargers' offensive line, boasting a 25% pressure disruption rate (the rate at which pressure disrupts a quarterback's progressions). With game-wrecker Maxx Crosby now paired with Christian Wilkins, this Raiders pass-rush has become a legitimate threat and could pose serious problems for the Ravens, given the current state of their offensive line.

This chart also captures the full disruption rate, accounting for perfect coverage and plays without defensive breakdowns alongside pressure disruptions. Las Vegas led the NFL in this category in Week 1, only being hurt by offensive turnovers and a long run from J.K. Dobbins.

On the offensive side, the Raiders showed they're likely to lean on the passing game, ranking sixth in pass rate over expected in Week 1. They also generated the eighth-most separation, and Gardner Minshew generated the 10th-most yards per attempt at the position.

If the Raiders' defense can generate pressure like last week, they'll run more plays and prevent the Ravens from controlling the clock. Given this and Baltimore's potential defensive shortcomings, Minshew's alternate outcomes may be mispriced, particularly in a game script favoring a Raiders win — a scenario I’ll be betting on.

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Story: Darius Slayton ignites the New York Giants‘ passing attack

The Washington defense allowed explosive passing plays (15 or more yards) at the sixth-highest rate in the league last season and continued to struggle in that area in Week 1, once again giving up the sixth-highest rate of explosive plays.

Giants quarterback Daniel Jones struggled in Week 1, facing quick pressure on nearly 40% of his dropbacks. However, Washington only generated pressure on 15% of plays in Week 1, meaning Jones should have more time to throw this week. His outlook for success, naturally, looks much brighter when he's not dealing with quick pressure on 40% of his dropbacks.

With more time in the pocket, Jones will also have the opportunity to push the ball downfield, where Darius Slayton has quietly excelled. Slayton boasts one of the better deep-receiving grades in the NFL, paired with impressive separation numbers. In a favorable matchup against a vulnerable Commanders defense, expect big performances from Jones and Slayton, setting the stage for a Giants victory.

SGP Build: 50-1 on DraftKings

QB Daniel Jones, New York Giants: 275+ passing yards
WR Darius Slayton, New York Giants: 70+ receiving yards
New York Giants: Moneyline

Story: Rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. emerges as Trevor Lawrence’s top target in a pass-heavy performance

The sample size is small, but Thomas had a terrific debut, separating at a high rate and grading well at the catch point. He led the team in targets, though the team did not throw often, which depressed the yardage outputs.

We do have a substantial sample size to confirm that the Jaguars are a pass-heavy team, though, and there should be ample volume for their passing offense. It's well within reason to expect Thomas to lead the team in targets, and his early results suggest he can be efficient with those opportunities.

In my matchups column, I discussed reasons to sell the Browns defense, and I want to be ahead of the curve in noting both the decline of Cleveland's defense and the potential emergence of Brian Thomas in the Jaguars' passing attack.

SGP Build: 28-1 on DraftKings

QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 300+ passing yards
WR Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars: 90+ receiving yards

Story: Raiders QB Gardner Minshew finds WR Tre Tucker for a deep touchdown

We're going back to Tre Tucker, who ran a route on 34 of 41 possible snaps for the Raiders in Week 1. Despite this usage, the market still prices him as a part-time deep-threat gadget player, offering a clear value opportunity.

But Tucker excels at creating separation, ranking second in the NFL last season in raw PFF separation grade (play-level). He also posted a well above-average deep grade, making him more than just a gadget player.

As discussed in my piece highlighting the week's best data-backed bets, this is not the same Ravens defense as last year. The unit allowed the highest rate of explosive plays in Week 1.

While we won’t let that small sample dictate our entire outlook on the team, it does suggest they have vulnerabilities, and the potential for a breakdown is real. Given Tucker’s talent, snap share and the more favorable-than-expected matchup, all it takes is one deep connection for this bet to hit.

SGP Build

WR Tre Tucker, Las Vegas Raiders: 60+ receiving yards
WR Tre Tucker, Las Vegas Raiders: Anytime touchdown
QB Gardner Minshew, Las Vegas Raiders: 275+ passing yards