Week 2 Betting Gamplean

Tails & Matchup Angles +SGPs

Apologies for not getting this out on Friday, was waiting for bunch more lines to come through to craft some of these SGPs.

Anyway, as usual, in this note we’ll cover some tails angles (those not covered in other sections— SGPs + matchups have some within them!) some matchups the market is perhaps overlooking and mispricing, and we’ll hit on some SGPs. I will try and keep these as short and succinct as possible and apologies for any typos, didn’t want to delay this getting out any longer.

Tails Angles:

DAL-NYG:

• Think this game has maybe the widest range of outcomes here. Dak did a terrific job last week of getting rid of the ball quick and throwing deep, which will be the recipe to defeat the Giants defense in this matchup. This figures to be a dominant NYG pass rush and they will be up against a weak Dallas O-line whose 40 PFF grade does inspire confidence in this matchup. But if Dallas can get past this Giants D-line they should have their way against a team that is set to play lots of man (45% in week Week 1) and does not have the personnel to defend Lamb + Pickens. If the ball is out quick to open receivers the Cowboys should have plenty of offensive success. Prescott played to a top %ile game last week, and while certainly possible that continues, I think was likely more a ceiling spot than sign of things to come.

• Now on the other side of the ball, Russell Wilson is going to live and die by the deep ball as he has the last few years. Last week was bad otherwise—it was his worst EPA game outside of deep passes but that was certainly in range of outcomes. But his play style is naturally variant and I don’t want to react too much to one week of play especially against a Dallas defense that did not force a single tight window throw and who has perennially allowed top rates of separation. I would imagine it unlikely this pass rush can maintain the 40% pressure rate Washington has last week and with a leaky secondary and QB who will be taking lots of deep shots the GIants have a wide range of outcomes here as well.

PHI vs KC:

• Went on for too long already there in NYG-DAL, so will try and keep shorter and to the point. Think the defenses are both a bit overrated in this spot— Chiefs pass defense has been terrible since the 2nd half of last season and got lip up again in Week 1 with bottom 5 EPA and YPA numbers. The Eagles are so stable and effective on offense they should be able to score at will against this KC defense.

• On the Eagles side, the team lost some key pieces on the D-line and the secondary has a massive hold at CB where Adoree Jackson got torched last week. Not to mention, we’ve seen this time and time again where a CB puts together a terrific year 1 (especially on ball) and regresses in Year 2.

  

• The underlying for DeJean and Mitchell and good but not great— it would not be shocking to me if this defense majorly regressed this season and the market is certainly pricing this defense as the dominant one from last season.

• Now with Mahomes his ability to create out of structure can mitigate a defensive advantage anyway. And Mahomes has always been inversely good to his defenses. But the Chiefs offense continuing to work in short areas of the field does limit the teams upside and ability to score quick. That is, unless they are able to hit on the deep shots, which would be the Tyquan Thornton and that is itself perhaps an SGP worth building around.

• Lol that I said this was going to be quick and went on longer— again see this as a spot with plenty of uncertainty and range of outcomes and that is the fun spot to be in for SGPs.