Week 3 Betting Gameplan
Tails Angles & SGPs
Apologies for no email last week, the Jewish holiday season is upon us, and time is a bit short. But let’s dive into it this week with some tails angles and SGPs. Of course, all the SGPs are also tails angles that I like and I will be playing those angles outside the SGP constructions will not be included in the “Tails Angles” section.
Tails Angles:
ATL vs DET:
DET’s many heavy-defensive scheme has had trouble stopping running QBs the past few years, allowing over half the starting QBs to run for over 40+ yards against them. (This also builds in some selection as Kirk Cousins isn’t ever running for 40 yards). Ridder can run, and his 10 attempts last week were a career high. That’s notable because his rushing prop reflectly roughly the median of his career. But the median game in his career hasn’t been a game in which the Falcons play from behind where Ridder will dropback to pass more and scramble more.
DET is a massive set up in class on offense for ATL— DET is top 3 in EDP since Ben Johnson took over last season— and their surprising Run D through 2 weeks could cause ATL some trouble running.
I’m betting into the angle that DET plays this one with a lead and Ridder is forced to use his legs as ATL has to move off their run game. Bets: Lions alt spreads parlayed with Ridder Alt rush Yds
WAS Passing O:
Going back to the well here as markets still have not caught up to Howell’s pass game ceiling nor that the BUF D is not the dominant unit from the first half of 2022.
BUF is last in the NFL in generating quick pressure—they were top 5 with Von Miller early last season— which should present a boost to Howell whose achilles heel lies in turning pressures into sacks.
For our prop purposes, WAS has the 4th highest situation adjusted pass rate as they’re fully comfortable letting him unleash it. For a guy whose depth of target has always pushed towards 10, and whose best skill is his deep passing, Howell can rack up yards quick. I’ll be playing some over, Howell alts+WAS alts and sprinklings some SGPs with Dotson & or Mclaurin.
MIA Passing O:
I wrote last week about why I don’t think the market has fully caught up to how good the Dolphins offense is and that remains the case. Vance Joseph has played the most man coverage in the NFL so far this season and that is a death wish against MIA.
Losing Waddle hurts but that has only furthered pushed prices down. In a small sample, with Waddle off the field, River Cracraft has a 26% target share and run a route on 95% of snaps. He should step into the Waddle role and has a miniscule prop line. I trust Mcdaniel to scheme his guys open— MIA forces coverage mistakes at one of the highest rates in the league— and the DEN Pass D might be one of the worst units in the league. I’ve already built Cracraft 80+ Tua 300+ MIA ML +2667 on FD and will be layering on some more MIA pass-game builds.
LV O:
Can feel this running long—I really tried to keep the bullets short!— but simply put:
LV O-line has been dominant (80% perfect block rate! By far the best in the NFL!) and if you can neutralize the Steelers D-line thier secondary is mighty exploitable. Good luck to Levi Wallace and Patrick Peterson on Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers.
On the flip side, the Raiders D is terrible but PIT also runs themselves out of more offensive plays than any other team. They force coverage mistakes at the lowest rate in the NFL and for 2 years now Kenny Pickett throws into tight windows on 25% of throws by far most in the NFL. It doesn’t help to have an uncreative OC and no WRs who separation numbers are above 35th percentile.
I’ll be playing some LV alts and some modest Jimmy G+Vegas alts (this could be a Josh Jacobs game as well).
CHI vs KC:
Going to be a fish and buy the Justin Fields speak and that he will start running again. He’s too talented as a runner to not take a flyer on some alt rush yards.
PHI vs TB:
Maybe my favorite alt line of the week— can read full breakdown here.
SGPs:
STORY: QB TREVOR LAWRENCE AND WR CALVIN RIDLEY FINALLY BREAK OUT
• Since the midway point of last season, Trevor Lawrence is second in the NFL in PFF grade. He is also first in big-time throws — the throws that stack up for huge QB performances — and atop basically every efficiency metric.
• With Lawrence's emergence came his team's continued reliance on him. The Jaguars have been one of the pass-heaviest teams in the NFL, passing 5% more than expected, which has continued early this season. This means we should see plenty of passes for the Jags quarterback to have a huge passing day.
• Jacksonville has got off to a relatively rocky offensive start, but it is only a matter of time before this offense truly breaks out, and the Texans defense might just be what the doctor ordered.
• Houston will be without two of its starting cornerbacks and will be starting two players with sub-50.0 PFF coverage grades in their place.
• The Texans defense has deployed zone coverage at one of the highest rates in the league. Jaguars receiver Calvin Ridley has dominated the target share against zone coverages, with a near-32% target rate, the third-highest rate in the NFL. Christian Kirk has seen just a 19% share against zone since joining the Jags, and with Zay Jones out, this should mean Lawrence will be looking Ridley’s way early and often.
Build: +3000 (PointsBet)
Trevor Lawrence: 300+ passing yards
Calvin Ridley: 125+ receiving yards
Jacksonville Jaguars: -5.5
STORY: QB GARDNER MINSHEW’S BIG PASSING DAY LEADS THE INDIANAPOLIS COLTS TO AN UPSET VICTORY
• It is a small sample, but Gardner Minshew has been terrific in Shane Steinchen’s offenses.
• Minshew leads the NFL in yards per attempt and has been one of the more efficient passers from an expected points added (EPA) perspective, as well. While it would be surprising to see Minshew sustain this play throughout the season, the signal could be directionally right, suggesting Minshew can piece together big passing performances and remain an above-average quarterback.
• Since Roquan Smith‘s arrival in Baltimore, teams have attacked the Ravens via the pass at a top clip, including doing so 4% more than expected this season. The Colts, who have been among the most pass-heavy teams this season, will let Minshew drop back often to accumulate yards.
• The Ravens will be without their top pass-rusher Odafe Oweh, safety Marcus Williams and their best cornerback Marlon Humphrey. The team's remaining corners have graded well below average in terms of preventing separation over the last few seasons, and while Mike MacDonald has all the makings of a terrific defensive coordinator, the team lacks talent on this defense with these injuries.
• Minshew’s small sample success invites a right-tail possibility for the Colts, and considering their team and opponents' tendencies, the Colts will be throwing often despite the market pricing Minshew as a fringe QB. If the Colts are to have success in this spot and cover or pull off the upset, it will likely be on the back of a big day from Minshew.
Build: 1: +2385 (FanDuel)
Gardner Minshew: 300+ yards
Zack Moss: Under 54.5 rushing yards
Indianapolis Colts: +10.5
Build 2: +8770 (FanDuel)
Gardner Minshew: 300+ passing yards
Zack Moss: Under 54.5 rushing yards
Indianapolis Colts: -2.5
STORY: WR RASHID SHAHEED CATCHES A LONG TOUCHDOWN, LEADING DEREK CARR TO A BIG PASSING DAY
There is perhaps no more underrated wide receiver in the NFL than Rashid Shaheed.
• Through the first two weeks of the season, Shaheed picked up right where he left off last year — in the top ranks of virtually every statistical category for pass-catchers, including dominating through creating separation, in contested scenarios and after the catch.
• But Shaheed is at his best on deep passes, where he has led the NFL in deep receiving grade since entering the league last season. Over the last two seasons, no QB has a higher rate of deep attempts than Derek Carr, who has thrown a deep pass on 21% of his dropbacks this season.
• Meanwhile, Green Bay finished in the bottom 10 in allowing explosive pass plays last season.
• With RB Alvin Kamara suspended and Jamaal Williams sidelined, New Orleans should tilt to the pass in this one, leaving Carr with many attempts and a few deep shots Shaheed’s way, which might be enough for him to clear his alt prop.
Build: +2806 (FanDuel)
Derek Carr: 300+ passing yards
Rashid Shaheed: 80+ passing yards and a touchdown
Below we have a list of longer form content I forgot to post earlier this week 😔.
Podcasts:
Recap of state of NFL and market outlook with Alpha Bets
PFF Forecast:
Matchbook Betting Podcast Best Bets:
As always, thanks for the support and let’s have ourselves a day!