Week 3 Betting Gameplan

Sep 22, 2024

Football Sunday just doesn’t get old, we are truly so blessed. We’ll talk some tails angles, SGPs, and some matchups the market is perhaps overlooking and mispricing. I will try and keep these as short and succinct as possible and apologies for any typos— this is the cost of having to write these quick.

Tails Angles:

AZ:

The frame I have for this game is: what would the price be if we removed our offseason priors and priced it based on these first two weeks? Now of course that’s not how real football games work and it would likely be foolish to ignore our priors. But it does introduce a tails framework for how this game could play out because AZ would certainly be favored in this game based solely on 2024 production.
The only sample we have of Kyler Murray and Drew Petzing is dominant production. They are basically top 5 in most offensive efficiency metrics since Kyler came back. Mind you, that includes a whole bunch of games from last season’s disastrous situation where the goal was simply to ease Kyler Murray back into action. But enough on that.
The point is: There’s a nonzero chance that DET is not the same offense as years past. Is it high chance? No. But this is a cat-in-mouse league and defensive coordinators can adjust to scheme. But that’s simply a hypothesis. The interesting piece to me is that Goff, after being top 5 in basically every production metric which capture schematic elements,(Disruption, clean pocket, first read etc) is sitting now in the 26-29 range early this season. And this was against 2 really bad secondaries. I think everyone will hit panic if they falter again this week and I want to be early to this in considering the tails.
On the AZ side, while they want to run the ball, this is a spot against a major pass-funnel DET D, far easier to pass than run against. The Lions were top 5 in every run D metric last season and promptly added run-stuffer DJ Reader this season (team allowed 40 yards on 17 carries last week). If AZ is going to win it is going to be through the air and via explosive plays where DET has struggled mightily for a few seasons now and where we just saw AZ have immense success. I want to be early on the possible DET downfall and AZ emergence, especially considering where the market currently sits. I’ll be playing the parlays with Kyler passing alts and AZ alt spreads and perhaps bringing it back with monty/Gibbs rushing.

IND:

Substack is going to tell me this email is too long, so here’s my column at The Lines outlining why I like the Colts alts.

HOU:

Same deal, case for HOU

DEN:

Bo Nix has struggled to start this season, full stop. But sometimes (oftentimes) in betting on individual games we are really chasing volume rather than efficiency. And the Broncos have been allowing Nix to throw plenty early in this season with the 10th highest Pass Rate Over Expected. It is also certainly the easiest matchup Nix has faced and Tampa has proved to be extremely vulnerable to the deep ball in the Todd Bowles era (bottom 5 explosive pass rate allowed). Not that much needs to go right for Nix to have a slightly above average day and for the Broncos to win yet the odds are priced as deep deep longshots

PIT:

The Chargers have allowed the 2nd lowest success rate to opposing rushers and lowest EPA/Rush allowed. Is it likely a function of opponents? Yes. But it also possible they are a good run D and force PIT to throw more often? Yes. Or even a game script where PIT is down and Fields is forced to throw a lot? Like that one too.

Props are about as low as could be on Fields but he has been looking downfield often and having some success. Especially in spots when you can bet on increased pass volume, I’m really liking the alt attempts+ Fields yards + spreads.

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Bet 1: Seattle Seahawks: -9.5 (+180 on FanDuel)

Bet 2: QB Geno Smith 300+ passing yards + SEA -5.5 10:1 on Draft Kings

Let's start, as always, by reviewing the team fundamentals. Below is a look at how teams stack up in EPA per play on offense and EPA allowed per play on defense.

The scale of the graph might be misleading, given how poorly the Panthers have played through two weeks. However, there’s a significant gap between the Seahawks and Dolphins in terms of EPA per play, with the Seahawks holding a 0.15 advantage on offense and an even larger 0.33 EPA per play difference on defense. These teams aren't even close in terms of efficiency this season, yet the line doesn’t reflect that, as the Seahawks are only 4-point favorites.

However, we don’t want to overreact to a small sample size. While the Seahawks have played two of the weakest teams in the league, the Dolphins' offensive numbers with Tua don’t offer much predictive value now that Skylar Thompson is starting at quarterback.

For our purposes, we have a decent sample size of Thompson in this McDaniel-led offense with Hill and Waddle. Of course, things can change, but there are clear warning signs regarding the efficiency of this offense with Thompson under center compared to Tua or other Dolphins quarterbacks.

The style of offense the Dolphins can play with Tagovailoa vastly differs from the style they’ve played with Skylar Thompson. Thompson has taken far more time to deliver the football and, as a result, invited far more disruption to this offense.

For context, disruption refers to either perfect coverage or plays where pressure forces a quarterback off his reads. Historically, non-disrupted plays have generated 0.34 EPA per play, while disrupted plays have resulted in -0.37 EPA per play.

Of course, an increase in disrupted plays negatively impacts offensive success, and Thompson has faced disruption at a rate 18 percentage points higher than Tua.

Miami has done a great job designing an offense that gets rid of the ball quickly and masks the offensive line's weaknesses. However, Thompson’s tendency to take an additional 0.75 seconds to throw makes the Dolphins more vulnerable to opposing defenses and less likely to stay in structure.

It would be one thing for the Dolphins to face this change against a neutral opponent, where a weak pass rush might not exploit their vulnerabilities. However, this week, they’re up against a Seattle defense that leads the NFL in pressure disruptions by a wide margin.

While some of that is opponent-driven, it's a consistent theme for Mike Macdonald’s defenses. The Dolphins' offensive line, without a quick 2.3-second time-to-throw, will face perhaps its toughest challenge yet in Seattle.

So, the Seahawks should be able to disrupt Miami’s offense, stalling drives and generating sacks and incompletions.

On the other side, Miami’s defense has struggled to prevent explosive plays, allowing the third-highest explosive pass rate of any team this season.

Geno Smith, meanwhile, has been one of the NFL’s top deep passers since arriving in Seattle, boasting the second-highest deep passing grade of any quarterback. Miami’s defense has allowed the second-most separation of any team, which should provide the Seahawks' talented wide receiver trio with plenty of space to work.

Beyond just the favorable matchup, Seattle is likely to lean into this advantage and let Geno air it out.

As outlined in the chart from Sam Hoppen, the Seahawks have been one of the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL, especially when adjusting for game situations. Ahead of Week 3, they rank second in pass rate over expected.

With Kenneth Walker III expected to be out, Geno Smith’s passing volume could increase even more. If the Seahawks are to win decisively, it will likely be through their passing attack, which should be both efficient and high in volume, driven by their propensity to pass and also because of the play volume they should see from stymying the Dolphins offense.

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SGPs:

Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith leans on Jaxon Smith-Njigba in big passing day

The Miami Dolphins haven't faced many pass attempts this season, largely due to unusual game scripts. However, early trends suggest that their defense is developing into a pass funnel, making them far easier to pass against than to run on. No team has a bigger discrepancy between their EPA allowed per pass compared to per run. Opposing offenses are averaging 0.62 EPA per play more when passing against the Dolphins than when running.

If you look above, we can also see that Seattle has passed far more than expected this season, a trend that has continued from the last few years where they have been one of the past-heaviest teams in the NFL. So, this Seahawks team should be throwing often and successfully against this Miami defense.

Enter Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Smith-Njigba has been targeted on 31% of his routes this season, trailing only Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin and Malik Nabers. He is no longer the third option in the Seahawks offense; he’s now playing a full complement of snaps and could very well be Geno Smith’s top target moving forward.

JSN primarily lines up in the slot, where he’ll face off against Kader Kohou. Kohou has struggled mightily this season, ranking last in several key cornerback metrics, including PFF’s on-ball grading and separation allowed.

This mismatch could pave the way for a breakout performance from Smith-Njigba in what should be a high-volume passing day for Seattle.

SGP Build: 65-1 on Fanatics

QB Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: 300+ passing yards
Seattle Seahawks: -5.5
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 6+ catches
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 110+ receiving yards

Minnesota Vikings WR Jalen Nailor Continues Breakout with Big Day Against Houston Texans

It’s still early in the season, but Jalen Nailor has emerged as a standout for the Vikings, excelling in both separation and yards after catch (YAC). He currently holds the highest PFF catch-point and YAC grades of any wide receiver in the NFL. When looking at underlying numbers, Nailor’s profile is among the most promising, and his breakout is well underway.

Nailor is set to continue his role as Minnesota’s No. 2 wide receiver, having run a route on 31 of the team's 32 dropbacks last week against the 49ers. He is expected to see significant playing time again in this matchup against Houston.

One of the key factors in Nailor’s potential success is his deep target profile. He boasts an 18-yard average depth of target (aDOT), making him a threat in exactly the area where the Texans' defense is vulnerable. Houston has allowed the second-highest depth of target faced this season at 10.6 yards per attempt. This gives Nailor the chance to capitalize on deep shots, providing the opportunity for a huge performance.

SGP Build: 45-1 on Bet365

WR Jalen Nailor: 100+ Yards
WR Jalen Nailor: 7+ receptions

San Francisco 49ers WR Jauan Jennings Steps Up in the Absence of Deebo Samuel and George Kittle

Jauan Jennings has often played behind the star-studded weapons in the 49ers offense, including Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Christian McCaffrey. However, in his limited snaps, Jennings has impressed with above-average separation and strong post-catch ability.

Now, with Samuel, Kittle and McCaffrey sidelined, Jennings is primed for a much larger role in a favorable matchup against the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams' defense has struggled mightily in coverage this season, allowing the highest yards per attempt (YPA) in the league and ranking near the bottom in most coverage metrics.

While some may be cautious about Brock Purdy’s passing output due to the injuries, Jennings has the potential to shine in this spot. His ability to step up when given the opportunity makes him a player to watch as the 49ers look to take advantage of a vulnerable Rams defense.

SGP Build: 55-1 on DraftKings

QB Brock Purdy: 300+ passing yards
Jauan Jennings: 100+ receiving yards
San Francisco 49ers: -6.5

That’s all for this week! As always, appreciate the support and spread the good word about throwthedamball! Let’s have ourselves a Sunday!