Week 3 Reflections

Week 3!

ICYM the first article in this series, this is the loose outline for my goals in this series of reflection pieces.  

I want to take this space every week to write down my process and reflections for what I call: "Football Profit Process" aka everything I’ve tried to predict and profit from the week prior. But given that I bet futures, spreads, props, and play DFS, I “bet” taking into consideration the prices from all these different markets. And unlike most “reviews” or “reflections” articles that stick to their one aisle, I want to take this space to articulate how my theses and convictions on teams and players manifest in different markets. I hope this will allow me to share my ideas and process so we can all improve our process and better set ourselves up for profit in the long run. 

I am still working through the style and I hope this weekly piece both holds me accountable and vastly improves as the season moves along. For now, it is basically a string of my thoughts outlined loosely as follows: 

Some ideas might only be a bullet point or small paragraph, others might develop into full length articles-- we shall see

General Notes: 

• I’ve said this on multiple occasions but I want to get this on record in writing: I think Brandon Staley will be the most valuable head coaching addition of the next 10 years. (The Staley is jersey is en route). Staley understands the key to offensive success is throwing the ball down the field and generating explosive plays, not marching trying to obtain first downs. (I have a mostly done data study on this topic of explosive plays and offensive success I hope to have done soon) Conversely, his defensive scheme invites teams to run in an attempt to limit explosive plays against.  I've long thought that defensive coordinators are the most important assets to a team's defense(this is a data study I hope to study this offseason), and Staley’s defense I think, can actually slow--not stop-- an elite offense. I bought them this offseason and this week, and will be buying them going forward. +130 to make the playoffs anyone!!?

• I have no recollection of making NE 70% favorites-- I thought I left that game like the NYG vs ATL game as neutral. Speaking of...

• NYG and Falcons are such dumpster fires that I was laying off both sides to this game. The NYG might need the draft capital from the Fields to trade for an offensive coordinator and head coach who understands probabilities. This team should be looking to one of Brady, Daboll, or Moore this offseason to try and turn the ship for this train-wreck of an organization. 

• I liked JAX in this spot in the classic “this team[AZ] isn’t as good as people think, and this team isn’t as bad as people think[JAX]. I will continue to sell AZ, likely stacking DFS against them given their pace on offense and poor D. And I will be buying JAX and Trevor Lawrence in the prop market where the Jaguars offense is priced way down and I can avoid trying to guess just how bad the Jags D will be in a given week. +140 O1.5 Td’s for TNF to start!

• Crazy stat of the week: I guess the knock on Justin Fields holding the ball for too long has some legitimacy. As @ CLevTA tweeted, when Fields had more than 2.5 seconds to throw he was 1/7 for 9 yards with 8 sacks taken. Yikes. We’ll see how he plays the rest of the way if he holds his starting job. 

Bets: 

1. 3 Team Teaser: CAR-2+ KC-.5+BAL -1.5(+160)

   1. Car: While I’m not yet buying CAR just yet, they should be an average team when all is said and done. Darnold is playing to a mid 70’s PFF grade(that’s about league avg) and there was no reason to expect that trend to stop against a bad Texans team. And with Davis Mills and his 10% turnover-worthy play rate at the helm, (PFF) I just didn’t see how the Texans were going to score points and keep this one close.

   2. BAL: If you look at the chart below, one team is not like the rest. Being on the bottom left of these graphs is generally not a recipe for success. I liked the Ravens to win big in this spot as the far better team. 

3. KC: I had a chargers ML bet(#teamstaley), and I will go into far more detail in that bullet point, but I saw this game coming down to the wire and it was anyone’s guess which team would win. But as a rule of thumb, I view betting on the Chiefs as a winning strategy. (I had this as basically a pickem in the NFL prediction game as seen above). 

2. LAC ML(+260)

   1. We already spoke about my love for Staley and I liked this price. Herbert is good and progressing in the more stable areas. The team passes at the 2nd highest rate over expected(Nflastr), the WRs are legit, and even the O-line led by Rashawn Slater is emerging. Not to mention, the Chargers have traditionally given the Chiefs issues, and if there is any matchup to slow Kelce down, coverage from Derwin James might be it.

   2. But really, while anything can happen in a one game sample, this bet was mostly about value and pricing. I think the Chargers will never again be TD underdogs in the Herbert/Staley era, and I want to be early on the Chargers emergence. I had no real sense of game-flow in this game-- and believing in Staley’s D made this a spot I wanted to mostly avoid in DFS and capitalize on in the betting markets.  

3. WFT alt O 20(+120)

   1. Last week, I wrote too many words on why I prefer team overs to game totals, and this week presented another good opportunity.  Josh Allen really struggled in weeks 1 and 2and I wanted to leave the Bills side alone with their variance.

   2. Ultimately, WFT's offense is not great but 20 is an extremely low number, especially in a game where both teams play with tremendous pace. It was also mostly game-script independent. We know Buf is going to throw no matter what(east prop bet $). If Allen put the pieces together there was no way this secondary could hang with the Bills WR's and WFT would get the benefit of garbage time to rack up points. If the Bills struggled again, WFT would seem ample possession times+plays and would likely get to 20 on volume alone. At + price and with most likely game scenarios covered, I liked this bet. 

4. DAL -3

   1. I’ve been high on the Cowboys all offseason (and I have my biggest futures bet on them). Why?

   2. This is a team that likes to throw with the 6th highest Passing over expected. They've generated 8th most explosive plays, and they're successful on 75% of their early downs(nflfastr)(These are stats I will continue to reference as the season rolls along)

   3. The Eagles big week 1 win seemed noisy to me, seeing how much the Falcons have struggled and how the game script led right into the Eagles hands. Jalen Hurts and his very low ADOT(average depth of target) makes him better suited to be playing from ahead rather than pushing the ball downfield while behind. 

   4. Add it all up and we have a Cowboys team that is just in another tier than the Eagles. They have a better QB, better WR’s and better coaching. At home and only at a FG spread, I really liked this bet. 

5. GB ML(+150/2U)

   1. This was my highest conviction bet of the week. The Niners defense is going to live and die by their pass rush this year, and the Packers O-line, even without All Pro David Bakhtiari, have remained a stout unit.  While Rodgers and co struggled through the first couple of weeks I was holding more stock in the priors from last year and how dominant they were.  I expected Rodgers to pick apart the secondary of this #overrated Niners defense who are feeling the loss of Robert Saleh.

2.  Not to mention, through 2 weeks the Packers were attempting the 4th most explosive plays(AirYards+xyac>20) but were 24th in the NFL in generating explosive plays. I expected that to begin to regress. Had there been a main slate, I would’ve been all over the Rodgers to Adams stack, but I liked the +money here and I had Adams as my showdown captain. 

6. SEA -0.5 1st half+Under

   1. This is a good example of when I think that context really matters relative to how some models run. What I mean by this is that if we look to context at how these teams operate we can gain a slight numbers edge on Vegas. Both teams operate their offense by running the ball frequently to set up vertical passing games. So while this combination can lead to points of course, it is more likely for this to happen in the 2nd half as both of these teams throw the ball more in the second half in neutral situations. But Vegas creates the 1st half O/U only by dividing the game total in half, even if context dictates that points are more likely to be scored in the second half when each team throws downfield more often. I liked SEA in this spot in what I thought would be a run heavy start with an explosive finish.( I didn’t feel the need to bet the second half over given my DFS exposure to this game). 

DFS Breakdown:

Ownership % from the DK $9 slant, which ICYMI, I am mass entering this year as a way to play double ups with upside. 

The lineup:

• I loved the spot for LAR and was not going to overthink it. The formula is not novel anymore-- TB is an extreme pass funnel and pass attempts beget passing yards, completions, and touchdowns. I knew I wanted Higbhee at 4k with his role(100% of snaps), potential target count and TD equity. For the WR, I thought this might be a week to buy low on Woods, who saw nine targets last week. And while Kupp was obviously a tremendous play, and a better play in a vacuum, we have seen him look like the clear alpha for weeks at a time(week 1-5 2019, I believe) only for Woods to take over as the team’s WR 1. While I don’t usually pay attention to ownership as a single entry player, I thought Kupp would be the highest owned WR(coming off 3 TD’s in 2 games) and Woods far less so, and I was willing to take the bet that maybe the script and TD variance would flip for this week. And I had a player props parlay that was basically my draftkings lineup with Kupp in it, as a hedge. (Stafford TD's n Higbee Rec+ Kupp Rec+Brady Td’s+Yards. Oops on the Brady part) Besides, the savings from Kupp to Woods allowed me to fill out the rest of the roster. 

• I didn’t have Godwin in my initial build, having Jefferson in that spot and CEH in for Mattison. But after seeing the Mattison news, I made the switch. Mattison was going to have the same role and for fantasy purposes is as good as Cook which made him… well 3k underpriced in his 3-down-role in a good matchup and game environment. As for Godwin, I had no idea who Ramsey would trail, but Godwin was priced with AB in, and not for his upside in a game as one of the best WR’s with Brady at QB in a spot we knew they’d be throwing. 

• I thought Pitts was in a great buy low spot. While his position might be listed as a TE, he lines up as a WR 70% of the time. With Gage out, I liked Pitts’s chances of soaking up an ever greater target share, making this the breakout week we’ve all been waiting for. I’m still buying Pitts going forward-- hopefully Smith and the Falcons can figure out the whole offense thing soon.

• For Ekler and Metcalf, I loved their upside in their spots. Metcalf was seeing the opportunities and it was only a matter of time before he would erupt. Nothing fancy here-- bet on Dcalf Metcalf in good game environments. As for Ekler, I thought he was gameflow independent with a huge receiving floor and touchdown upside. 

• Bengals D : Big Ben is bad, his o-line is bad, we talk about this every week. I have far too much money on the Bengals coming in third place so I’m not complaining with this result!

Final reflections:

• I thought this was a sharp build, building from 2 elite game environments with underpriced players. My “one off’s” had serious upside, and I loved the unique 2 TE build for this week. 

• Result: 100% ROI DFS

• Betting: +20U (+7)

Thanks for reading my adventurous thoughts and I look forward to next week! We’re so blessed to be able to watch and talk about football, aren’t we? You can follow my work: @throwthedamball. My DM’s are open-- I really love all kinds of suggestions, comments, criticism, anything!