Week 4 Betting Gameplan
Welcome to Throwthedamball! In this note we’ll cover some tails angles (those not covered in other sections), SGPs, and some matchups the market is perhaps overlooking and mispricing. I will try and keep these as short and succinct as possible and apologies for any typos— this is the cost of having to write these quick.
Tails Angles
TB
The Eagles have a reputation as a team easy to run against, but there is evidence to suggest the team is average at the very least in this regard with the 11th best success rate allowed, as well as having forced run block mistakes at 12th best rate. The Rush EPA/Allowed is 17th best, you get the idea. The point is to say, though, that the Pass D is perhaps leakier than the run and with the health and state of the Bucs RB room, it would be unsurpising to see the Bucs let Baker rip it as they have early this season (7th highest Pass Rate Over Expected).
And if Baker does let it rip, this is a Philly coverage unit making coverage mistakes at the 4th highest rate in the NFL, allowing 8th highest YPA, and the 4th highest explosive play %. And certainly with Vita Vea back, this Bucs run D should far outperform their season-to-date performance and force PHI into more passes (faster pace). And given the state of PHI WR room, there’s a scenario where the Eagles fall fairly flat and where Baker has plenty of passing volume against a pretty weak secondary.
With a decent right tail for the Bucs combined with the another potential left tail one from the Eagles and their injuries, going to be playing this spot a few different ways but mostly centered around the Bucs passing game and their deep passing game (peep dart Trey Palmer?)
WAS/AZ
Somehow I always tell myself I’ll keep the tails angles write up short and then the first one always goes way long. Sorry. Anyway, I’m not sure why I feel compelled to include this game in this little write-up but there are pretty clear angles to this game being the an extreme-high scoring affair, but that’s certainly not an out-there take. If Washington is as as good on offense and as bad on defense as their first 3 weeks performance, then somehow this total is still too low.
I think there are so many angles for this game to play out that I honestly haven’t quite narrowed in on the path or two I think most likely to happen relative to expectations. I might just stay away, but there are of course plenty of ways to attack here both in the air and on the ground, this is just not a spot I’m going to be prioritizing.
TEN:
We have discussed this at a few points but from a traits perspective, Levis is one of the more volatile QBs in the NFL. I am leaving open the possibility that his first weeks has been play on the left side of the distribution rather than a certain indicator that Levis is bad.
Regardless, we are oftentimes betting on volume here and this is an offense that is not by any means run-heavy and has a dolphins opponent that, in terms of EPA/allowed, is the second biggest pass-funnel in the NFL. Especially for a QB who looks deep as often as Levis does, against a defense allowing 5th highest rate of explosive pass plays and yards can stack up pretty quick here. Not that much needs to right, even if Levis is really bad for him to put up a big passing day here. Not to mention, as we discussed last week this is a Dolphins offense that is operated very differently with or without Tua. It is designed to mitigate O-line troubles by throwing within 2.5 seconds of the ball. But that’s not really the focus here— can jolt the memory here. Point is: I’m not sure Tyler Huntley is the perfect fit for this offense and Levis has passing yardage upside despite the hard market selling.
Leveraging Tails:
QB Josh Allen: 300+ passing yards & Buffalo Bills: -3 (16-1 on DraftKings)
Let us begin, as always, by looking at the team fundamentals and how the market is pricing this game.
According to Inpredictable.com, which analyzes current and look-ahead lines to generate team ratings, the market is currently pricing the Baltimore Ravens as a better team than the Buffalo Bills.
However, as this chart from PFF’s Timo Riske illustrates, the Bills are in a completely different tier than the Ravens when it comes to both offensive and defensive production.
While the Bills haven’t faced the toughest schedule, it hasn’t been a walk in the park, either. Considering the prior — that the defense has been outstanding and Josh Allen is an elite quarterback — there’s little reason to expect the kind of major regression the market seems to be suggesting with their current pricing.
Let's also examine disruption, which occurs when a team creates perfect coverage or pressure that interferes with a quarterback's ability to go through his reads. Non-disrupted plays typically generate 0.5 EPA per play, while disrupted plays average -0.50 EPA per play.
The Bills have been the least disrupted team in the NFL, thanks to a combination of their strong scheme and Josh Allen's excellent decision-making. And given the Ravens' below-average ability to create disruption, it's unlikely they’ll be able to rattle Allen and the Bills' offense.
On the flip side, Lamar Jackson has been playing “hero ball” when disrupted, performing nearly twice as well as his career averages suggest. This indicates he's likely due for some regression. With almost half of the Ravens' plays being disrupted, there's a limit to how much success they can sustain in such situations.
Let us also look at the matchup here, which further elevates the Bills in this spot.
The Bills defense has been particularly strong on throws to the boundaries but more vulnerable over the middle of the field (MOF), mainly due to injuries at linebacker.
Interestingly, the Ravens' offensive success has primarily come from throws to the boundary, where they rank eighth in EPA per play. However, on MOF throws—where they will likely need to capitalize against the Bills' secondary—they rank just 21st among the league's teams.
This spot is even more intriguing because the markets are pricing Allen as a low-volume passer, which aligns with his medians under offensive coordinator Joe Brady. The Bills have leaned on a run-first approach this season, and in two games, they've dominated their opponents to the point where they had little reason to pass in the second half.
However, the Bills have been trending toward more passing recently, with a neutral pass rate over expected in Week 2 and a 3% increase above expected in Week 3. Now, they face one of the league's biggest pass funnels, where opposing teams have thrown 6.5% more than expected.
In other words, Allen's yardage props don't fully reflect the tails of this possible game plan (more passing) or game script (a close contest) in this matchup. It's unusual for such an efficient passer to have a low passing prop in a game where he’s likely to throw often against a non-elite defense.
Matchups:
Rams QB Matthew Stafford might be in for a rough day
As we found in a study a few summers ago, quarterbacks who rarely scramble tend to be more sensitive to situations and matchups than those who scramble more often.
Matthew Stafford, who has scrambled the fourth-least frequently of any quarterback over the past four years, fits this pattern. It’s no surprise that Stafford shows significant performance splits depending on whether he's in a favorable situation or not.
Stafford is set to face a Bears team that has been well above average in disrupting opposing offenses. None of the Rams’ previous opponents this season have excelled in this area, so Stafford will likely face more pressure in this game than any other so far.
Suggested bets: Given his sensitivity to pressure, I’ll be targeting some of Matthew Stafford's unders, as well as taking a look at Rams team total unders.
Saints QB Derek Carr is in a good spot
On the other hand, Derek Carr, who is also heavily affected by pressure due to his limited scrambling ability, should have more time to operate against Atlanta’s defense in Week 4.
The Saints have been excellent at preventing quick pressures this season, while the Falcons have struggled.
However, in their game against the Eagles, the Saints were dominated by Jalen Carter, who generated quick pressure nearly a third of the time. While part of that performance was due to injuries along the Saints’ offensive line, no one on Atlanta’s defense is likely to replicate that level of disruption.
It’s also important to note the injuries affecting the Saints' offensive line. Cesar Ruiz, who is enjoying a breakout season at guard, has been one of our worst-graded blockers over the last four years. And Lucas Patrick, PFF’s No. 3 graded blocker this year, will replace Erik McCoy, but Patrick has had a PFF grade in the 50s for six of the last seven seasons, suggesting that his success might be more about scheme than a late-career resurgence.
Derek Carr ranks second in the NFL in EPA per play when not facing quick pressure but drops to third-worst when quick pressure is present.
It’s no surprise that the Eagles were able to disrupt Carr last week, but as mentioned earlier, Atlanta will unlikely replicate that level of pressure. With more time in the pocket this week, Carr should have plenty of opportunities to succeed.
Suggested bets: I'll be betting on Carr's alternate lines, along with Saints props and same-game parlays (SGPs), which are intriguing options this week.
SGPs:
Brian Thomas Jr. Poised for a Big Day Against the Texans’ Vulnerable Deep Passing Defense
The Texans' pass defense has been solid overall to start the season, but they’ve shown a vulnerability against the deep ball. Houston has allowed the second-highest average depth of target at nearly 10 yards, making them susceptible to explosive plays downfield.
This sets the stage for Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. to take advantage. Thomas has become Jacksonville’s go-to receiver, leading the team in nearly every major category. His ability to excel both as a deep threat and after the catch gives him multiple ways to exploit Houston’s defense.
SGP Build: 24-1 on Fanatics
Brian Thomas Jr.:95+ receiving yards
Brian Thomas Jr.:Anytime TD
Brian Thomas Jr.: 6+ receptions
Derek Carr’s Big Passing Day Powers Saints to Victory Over Falcons
In our matchups column, we highlighted reasons to be optimistic about the Saints' passing offense, despite the injuries they’ve faced.
A key part of this analysis was Derek Carr’s dramatic splits between performances under pressure and when kept clean. The Falcons, ranking near the bottom of the league in quick pressure, lack the personnel to disrupt Carr effectively. With explosive targets like Shaheed and Olave—assuming Olave is active—the focus is on Carr himself. Rather than guess where the production will go, we’re leaning into the bullish case by betting on Carr, the Saints' spread, and the passing volume.
SGP Build: 80-1 on Fanatics
QB Derek Carr: 300+ passing yards
Derek Carr: 32+ pass attempts
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Shines Against Man-Heavy Detroit Lions Defense
The Detroit Lions have leaned heavily on man coverage, utilizing it nearly 45% of the time this season— the third-highest rate in the NFL. As our studies have shown, man coverage tends to favor superior talent, and it offers a more consistent share of targets to top receivers.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has thrived in such situations, ranking among the best in separation and yardage production. He currently boasts a 25% target share against man coverage, positioning him for a big day. He’s also primed to face Lions' slot corner Amirk Robertson, who ranks in the 20th percentile in separation prevention based on our Successful Coverage Over Expected metric. With the Lions serving as a pass-funnel defense, Seattle will likely look to air it out, making this an ideal spot for Smith-Njigba to feast.
SGP Build: 25:1 on Bet365
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 8 receptions
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 120+ receiving yards
For those looking for a more in-depth breakdown of a few spots, above is the Week 4 PFF NFL Betting show
18:30 PHI-TB
31:40: BAL- BUF
47:30 SEA-DET
1:04:10: SGPs
1:10:00: Key Insights + Recap
That’s all for this week! As always, appreciate the support and spread the good word about throwthedamball! I don’t want to commit yet but I am hoping to include a new early week write-up this week getting back to reflection style pieces + some of quick hitters of stats that I am monitoring. Maybe we’ll see.
Great job sir, as always