Let’s dive right in. As usual, in this note we’ll cover some tails angles (those not covered in other sections— SGPs + matchups have some within them!) some matchups the market is perhaps overlooking and mispricing, and we’ll hit on some SGPs. I will try and keep these as short and succinct as possible and apologies for any typos, didn’t want to delay this getting out any longer. We are so blessed to have a 14 hour fotball day on our hands.
Tails Angles:
LAC-NYG
We’ve got angles below on basically all the 1PM games, though the Giants-Chargers I think is worth mentioning a bit as well. We’ve long been proponents of the tails for the uncertain/rookie QBs here.
We don’t have enough of a sample size to know whether or not these QBs are good, or better said for our purposes, whether or not they can put together a league average to slightly above average game. To varying degrees, markets are pricing each of these guys essentially saying that their 90-95 %ile passing yard game would be roughly NFL league average. But with such a small sample, we can’t possibly know, and certainly not with certainty, what each of these individual QBs right tail game might look like. There’s a big difference in my view in betting on a 90-95% ile game for any QB in the league as opposed to a (supposedly) bad QB putting together a league average yardage game. Not much needs to go right for an NFL QB to, even accidentally, throw for 225 or 250 yards in a game.
I think this true and applies, full stop as a dart throw (ha).
I ALSO think this is not the ideal scenario for Dart and the Giants. Rookie QBs tend to struggle early and tend to struggle a lot more earlier on in their first few games. Working against him is that And this is a LAC defense # 1 in Dropback success Rate allowed and allowing the fewest YPA, a pretty terrible matchup for Dart to have in his first start. If betting on the Giants tail, it is likely some combo of 1) Dart being far better than anyone expects, and 2) that the Chargers run game can’t get going, and as a result, the Giants pass rush has some more success against a middling Chargers Pass Block unit where the base rate of pressure is so high they can slow down Herbert. Of course this can change with a rookie, but it doesn’t hurt that through 3 weeks the Giants are a 7% Pass Rate Over Expected team, top 5 in the NFL.
On the flipside, Herbert should be able to throw at will against this Giants defense, assuming he can scramble his way to mitigate this Giants pass rush. The question remains, in my view, whether Hampton and this Chargers rush offense (3rd worst in Rush EPA) can take advantage of a struggling Giants run defense that is bottom 5 in virtually every category.
The Chargers tail I think is that Herbert continues to cook, the run game gets going, and Dart is as bad as most rookies in their first start, and especially against a good defense. In this script it is won’t be too hard for LAC to front run the team and win with some margin
JAX-SF:
So much of the value for SF’s defense has lied in their ability to generate a pass rush as they have led the NFL in quick pressure rate at nearly 20% through 2 weeks, masking a secondary that has no CBs or safety’s even close to average in their PFF Grade.
And with Bosa now out, that quick pressure is sure to falter a bit both because they are losing a dominant EDGE, but it also has the secondary effect of likely making Bryce Huff—who is 5th in PFF grade through 3 weeks— less efficient by virtue of him now being double teamed more frequently. And when the ability of a pass rush to win early diminishes, certainly without the talent in the secondary this leaves the 49ers, in my view, very exposed to opposing passing attacks. So while the market is likely pricing in some effect in the matchup of a 49ers team that is 4th best in YPA so far this season, I am selling the ability of this 49ers pass D.
On the flipside, where Trevor Lawrence has especially struggled this year has been, uncharacteristically, with the deep ball. On non deep passes, Lawrence has been 0.05 EPA/Play, and on deep passes he is last in the NFL at -1.37 EPA. But this is a tiny sample and we should have, I think, a decent prior on Lawrence who usually sits at about 0.6 EPA/Play as one of the games better deep throwers. Whether that is this week or in the coming weeks, I anticipate that deep passing regressing closer to Lawrence’s career averages and for Lawrences overall efficiency numbers and yardage outputs to increase.
From a passing volume perspective, this is a Jaguars offense that is operating as one of the highest pass-rate over expected teams and should be dialing it up from deep frequently. Add up that 1) this a SF defense I think overrated and prone to secondary problems given the talent and 2) Lawrence I think waiting for some deep ball regression and I am interested in Jaguars alts and SGPs through Lawrence.
Tons of other tails spots below with the Colts, Eagles, Falcons, Vikings, etc.
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