I’m running low on time again (sorry for inevitable typos) but wanted to start the Gameplan with some of the longer form parts— and we will of course be back with SGPs + more tails thoughts on Saturday as more pricing and info comes in. Also Adrenaline Lined Up for Week 4 is live + some fun shorts on the YouTube page.
Leveraging Tails:
Many NFL bettors start with individual markets — spreads, totals or player props — and ask, “Which spread looks good?” or “Which totals stand out this week?” It’s a bottom-up approach: Start with the bet, then decide whether the underlying game script supports it.
In this space, we’ll work in reverse. Each week, we’ll focus on one game and take a top-down approach, starting with the broader picture of how the teams and players are performing and what the data suggests about the matchup. From there, we’ll identify the betting markets that best align with that expected game script.
The goal is to form a view of how the game is likely to unfold first, then find the spreads, totals and props that offer the best ways to bet on that outcome.
A look at the fundamentals
Let us begin, as always, by looking at the team fundamentals to set the frame for our analysis.
Here, we can look at how each team fares in weighted EPA, which slightly downweights high-leverage plays such as turnovers and goal-line plays while also adjusting team strength based on opponent quality.
And through three weeks, Washington has been slightly better than the Colts on both sides of the ball.
However, with this game in London on a neutral field, the market has the Colts as 3.5-point favorites with a 64% implied win probability, suggesting a much wider gap between these teams.
Much of that value likely comes from a Colts offense that the market ranks as the 12th best in the NFL, according to Inpredictable (which uses current and lookahead lines to derive team ratings). Some of that likely reflects last season, when the Colts were a top-three offense by virtually any measure before Daniel Jones went down with an Achilles injury. But the offense has since lost two of its three wide receivers from that group, including Alec Pierce, which has all but eliminated the deep passing game.
Without a legitimate downfield threat, the Colts have attempted the fewest deep passes in the NFL. What’s more, Jones has struggled to create outside the pocket since returning from injury. He ranked in the 85th percentile in EPA outside the pocket last season but has fallen to the 20th percentile through three weeks this year.
