Week 5 Betting Gameplan
Tails Angles & SGPs
Last week that I’m offline for Sunday, but at least we got something in for the main slate! We’ll cover some tails angles I like in addition to the ones that form the SGPs and matchup columns below. (Apologies for any typos, had to get this out quick before going offline)
Tails Angles:
MIA vs NYG:
I’ve been taught o never forget my roots. And I would never forget some of our earliest SGP cashes betting on the Dolphins against weak coverage units that play loads of man coverage. Well, the Giants fit that bill playing the most man coverage in the NFL with a unit whose CBs have been absolutely dreadful (see below).
With how successful the MIA run game has been they can turn run-heavy and win in that fashion (also a build I’m intrigued by) but if MIA turns pass-heavy they should dominate, and if the NYG offense continues on its abysmal pace MIA can have enough play volume for both the passing and running games to explode. Deep SGP anybody playing all 3 of those angles ? Sign me up (I sniff a 4 leg 750:1 bet). Oh and sign me up for the usual bets building around the MIA passing attack.
KC:
Only 4 players have earned a higher target share on routes run than Rashee Rice, whose role continues to grow in an offense begging for a WR to emerge. I want to be early to the Rice party who has the 3rd highest YPRR vs zone coverage, which the Vikings rank 10th in so far. Throw in the alts and SGPs.
JAX:
Try and keep this simple: I don’t think we’ve learned much about either of these teams but BUF is coming off a 95%ile game and the Jaguars have been let down by some poor turnover luck and fluky drops. This could very well turn into a shootout where the winner is determined by the better QB. I don’t think it’s 70-30 that answer is Josh Allen. I’ll be firing up the Lawrence + Jags alts.
I think all other angles are covered in matchups/SGPs right below.
Matchups:
Throughout the years, PFF data scientists have developed and conducted numerous studies to better understand and predict performance.
While many of these seminal works have furthered the conversation and certainly linger in the background, the goal in this space is to identify how the findings manifest in particular weekly matchups and to source the matchups or interactions the betting market has overlooked.
Some bets will track traditional markets, but others will look to more exotic markets to ensure we utilize the best market for the particular thesis or angle.
LAR vs PHI
Angle: Lean into Stafford in good situational spots
As we spoke about in this space last week, because of his traits, we want to be betting on Stafford in good contexts–where the defense isn’t overwhelming and where he has solid weapons at his disposal. Stafford rarely scrambles which our research suggests makes him far more situation-sensitive.
While the Eagles have developed a reputation as a dominant pass-rush, the results have sub-par to start the season. The team ranks below average and generating quick pressure and is slightly worse (19th best) in generating pressure altogether.
In terms of separation prevented, out of 108 qualifying CBs, the Eagles corners rank 81,96,104. Despite some big names, whether because of scheme or some other factor, the underlying play has been weak. Markets, though, are still pricing the Eagles around the 10th best defense.
We want to attack with Stafford in good situational spots, and the Eagles are a sneaky good spot for Stafford considering their underlying play and the market's pricing. I’ll be buying Stafford passing yards parlayed with Rams alt lines+ Rams O 22.5 Team Total
HOU vs ATL:
Angle: Improvement of O-line will only further elevate Stroud
In a 2022 article, we set out to answer this question: Is elevating a weaker player on the O-line is more beneficial to a team than making the already good player even better?
What we found was that elevating one weak link is far more beneficial. Going from an 85% successful block player to a 90% player is far more fruitful than a 90% to 95%. This is particularly relevant for the Texans who will be welcoming back 2 new OL both of whom had successful block rates north of the 90% threshold and will be replacing players around the 85% mark. This should have a non-linear effect on improving this offensive line and general.
What this chart shows is that CJ Stroud has very rarely had clean pockets to throw from, but when he does have a clean pocket, he has the highest EPA in the NFL. With improvements on the O-line, then, Stroud should have more clean pockets to operate in which should further elevate his efficiency.
Bets: I’ll be betting on HOU ML and Hou Alt lines+parlayed with some Stroud Props.
SGPs
Story: Kincaid breaks out in matchup that filters targets to the TE
The strength of the Jaguars secondary has been on the outside where Tyson Campbell and Darious Williams have been among the very best preventing separation.
The strength of these players, though, has filtered targets towards the Middle of the Field where the Jaguars are especially vulnerable. Against TE’s they’ve allowed the 2nd most yards targets and yards and they have likewise been inefficient against slot WR where Tre Herndon (above) has struggled.
This sets nicely for Dalton Kincaid who played the 2nd most receiving snaps of any Bills player last week as he continues to acclimate to the offense. Further, Dawson Knox has been limited in practice all week with a quad injury, further solidifying Kincaid’s role. In a game which should see plenty of scoring, with an expanding role and in an ideal matchup, this has the perfect setup for the potential Kincaid breakout.
Build: +3145 on FD
Kincaid 70+ Yards
Kincaid TD
Allen 300 yards
Story: Death, taxes and Rashid Shaheed dominating vs man coverage.
The Patriots are one of the man heaviest teams in the NFL, playing that coverage 3rd most in the NFL. As we’ve studied here at PFF in man coverage, more so than zone, targets are more predictable and the better WR’s beat the better CB’s and vice versa.
This could pose a problem for the NE secondary down all 3 starting CBs including promising 1st round rookie Christian Gonzalez. It would be unsurprising to see Belichick try and scheme out Olave and force the Saints secondary weapons to beat them.
This could pose an issue against Rashid Shaheed who has been the games best separator against man, dominating after the catch as well. Of course worth noting in betting the alt lines, Shaheed grades out top 10 on deep routes as well, always a threat to score.
Shaheed’s pass-down snap share has increased by the week, and facing off against J.C Jackson, one of the worst graded CB’s by any metric, in man coverage might be one of the biggest mismatches of the week. Whether it is Carr or Jameis in—hopefully Jameis— this is a spot for the NO passing game to have success.
Build: FD +2840
Shaheed 80
Shaheed TD
NO ML
Story: Wilson continues to stay in rhythm and takes advantage of porous Broncos D’
While we wouldn’t want to overreact to a one game sample in betting a median outcome, the SGP betting on Wilson presents the perfect opportunity to capitalize on the possibility that Wilson’s SNF performance was a sign of things to come.
Noticeable to anyone watching was Wilson's comfort in the pocket and with his timing, not abandoning clean pockets as he had in previous games. And surely his % of throws in rhythm last week was nearly 6% higher than his previous best. Against the lifeless Broncos D’ Wilson should once again have the context and matchup to stay in rhythm often and build off his last game.
Further elevating this spot is how bad the Broncos D’ has been preventing explosive plays. With Wilson's prop sitting so low at 200 yards, if the Jets can connect on a few deep shots Wilson has the chance to fly over his prop and alts.
It is also worth noting the Broncos are dead last in PFF coverage grade against TE’s and are allowing 0.68 EPA on targets to TE’s. While I wouldn’t be off G. Wilson either, if Surtain follows him around 50-60% of the snaps this should further tilt targets to Conklin who is playing a full complement of the snaps and earned the 2nd most targets last week. I’ll be including him in builds as well.
Build 1: + 3023 on FD
Wilson 275 passing yards
Jets -5.5
Build 2: +7900 on FD
Wilson 275 passing yards
Jets -5.5
Tyler Conklin 50+yards
As always, appreciate the support and spread the good word! We’ll be back with regular scheduling next week as the holiday season concludes for me.