Week 5 Betting Gameplan

Tails & Matchup Angles + SGPs

Another Sunday of 14 hours of NFL football. WE ARE SO BLESSED. Let’s get right into it, tails angles ( I get into a mini data dive on Geno Smith, oopsy), and the usual matchups and SGPs. I gotta be honest I only did a cursory glance there are going to be typos, but everyone wants this info out ASAP let’s be real. Might also hop into chat to test some AMA Sunday AM if thats of interest.

Tails Angles:

IND

• Talked about this spot on a few podcasts this week, but think is a terrific spot for the Colts offense here. Of course, this is a team top 3 in virtually any metric you want to look at whether EDP, EPA, Success Rate, Series Success Rate, etc. And I think there is little to reason to think it is fluky given the health of this team and their ability to stay in system under Steichen. I don’t think the market is fully aligned that this is a top 3 offense in the NFL, but I am on board here with the Colts assuming the health continues.

• Now they get a matchup with a Raiders defense bottom of the league in most pass defense categories, though a team that has been good on run defense. If anything, I think this tilts the Colts a bit pass heavier but they should still have their way.

• On the flipside, the Colts are average in most defensive categories, but average might just be enough to cause trouble for the Raiders. With Kolton Miller now out, there is only 1 starter with an above 60 PFF grade and that is the Center Jordan Meredith who is 19/35 with a 63.8 Grade. The team is full of weak links that I think the Colts should be able to exploit and are not a good enough matchup for the Raiders to overcome.

• I guess we’ll do a little mini dive into Geno Smith while we’re here— but Smith has always been a QB sensitive to pressure consistently with some of the more drastic splits pressure vs not, disruption vs not, etc.

  • Smith is holding onto the ball much longer this year with a 3.11 ADOT (last 2 years were 2.83, 2.78) and with his quick pass rate plummeting from 45% to 33% this year.

    • And those quick hitters in system Smith had so much success with in years past are not existent in Vegas. His raw PFF Grade in System is down from 0.09 range to -0.01 (average is 0.03) and EPA from ~0.15 to -0.03. Again average here is 0.06. And he is creating his own pressure at the 6th highest rate in the NFL this season.

    • The result is a QB who is scrambling more often, but setting a career high in sack rate, and career lows so far in EPA and PFF Grade.

• A detailed of saying 2 things 1) I think Smith has taken a pretty large step back in this new play style and 2) in this matchup, I think holding the ball for 3s behind this offensive line is a recipe for disaster against a team with any semblance of a pass rush which IND and 2nd ranked Laiatu Latu represent. I like the Colts alts and Jones here.