Week 5 Update
Media & TNF Plays
Apologies for not coming through with a morning update last week, but the Jewish holiday season this year had made timing tight. Week 5 is the last week of the holiday season so we can get back to regular scheduling going forward. For now, I’ll walk through some angles I’ll be playing tonight and link some podcasts.
Angles:
I think this game has some sneaky shootout potential.
What this chart essentially shows is that even when adjusting to market expectations both of these defenses have been absolutely atrocious. Add in that each of these defenses rank in the bottom 5 allowing explosive drives and these are both terrific defenses to attack for ceiling offensive games.
What further elevates this spot is how well each of these QBs have played when throwing deep. While neither have a high ADOT on the season (both bottom 25%ile), should each QB pass deeper (in a matchup that favors it) this has all the makings of a right tail outcome as it plays to both QBs strengths.
Another semi related angle: prices are so low on the Bears offense just by virtue of how few plays they’ve run as a result of having a bad offense. But if this is a spot where they can sustain drives, there is room for many players/far alts to hit as a result of higher play volume. Books price by medians and that sample is of a low-volume offense, but this spot can lend itself to much higher volume and efficiency.
I’ll be playing some WAS passing alts + spreads as my main exposure and layering on Fields+Bears, Fields passing and rushing, Fields to Moore & Mooney (WAS is elite defending TE’s) and maybe even combining Fields Passing+rushing+Moore+Mooney for a deep deep SGP 250:1 style.
Media:
PFF Forecast- Alt lines+SGPs+Best Bets
Matchbook Betting Podcast: Deep dive into 4 games and some best bets.
As always, appreciate the support and spread the good word!
I will hopefully be back tomorrow with some more angles— but if not, most of my process is outlined on the above streams.