Another week another rush to get this out (I’m doing better getting these out, at least partly on Fridays, typos inevitable). I have some SGPs in, we’ll likely add a few more in on Sat night with the tails notes. Week 6 Adrenaline Lined Up With Sean Lee & Zack Martin is live + some fun shorts on the YouTube page. (like and subscribe :) )
Leveraging Tails
Many NFL bettors start with individual markets — spreads, totals or player props — and ask, “Which spread looks good?” or “Which totals stand out this week?” It’s a bottom-up approach: Start with the bet, then decide whether the underlying game script supports it.
In this space, we’ll work in reverse. Each week, we’ll focus on one game and take a top-down approach, starting with the broader picture of how the teams and players are performing and what the data suggests about the matchup. From there, we’ll identify the betting markets that best align with that expected game script.
The goal is to form a view of how the game is likely to unfold first, then find the spreads, totals and props that offer the best ways to bet on that outcome. And while we can’t walk through this full process each week this should provide some window of through to build a process beyond the logic for this game and matched with ones own opinions.
Trades: NYG alts (-2.5/-5.5 etc)
Let us begin as always looking to the team fundamentals to set the frame for our analysis.
Here we have a chart of teams EPA/Play— and while not dispositive, this paints the picture of a Giants team that has been better on both offense and defense early in the season. (Choose your overall efficiency stat of preference). Of course 1 week of this Giants is sample is with Dart in which they played their best game. But from a production point of view this is a Giants team that has outperformed the Saints in most overall metrics.
But the market is not buying the Giants production having them as the ~30th best team according to estimates from Inpredictable, which uses current market and lookahead lines to determine team ratings. This same indicator has the Saints as the 23rd best team.
The result is a Giants team that, despite being at home, is a slight underdog to the Saints despite the fundamental performances suggesting a different story. But of course, we don’t simply bet on an EPA/play chart and there are matchup angles to dissect here that lead me to the Giants tails in particular.
Matchup looks:
The Giants defense has turned into one of the blitz heaviest units in the NFL over the last few weeks of the season following some early defensive struggles.
In the last 2 weeks the Giants have blitzed close to 60% of the time, and the result has been a pressure rate for the defense close to 35%. Now they get a QB in Tyler Shough who has struggled against the blitz.
