Week 6 Betting Gameplan

Tails & Matchup Angles + SGPs

Another Sunday of 14 hours of NFL football. WE ARE SO BLESSED. Let’s get right into it, tails angles and the usual matchups and SGPs. I gotta be honest I only did a cursory glance there are going to be typos, but everyone wants this info out ASAP, let’s be real.

Tails Angles:

Going to actually try and keep these more quick hitters, there’s plenty of fleshed out analysis below.

DEN

• I have heard in many places this week people citing that the Jets have faced the lowest pass volume against as a function of some of the deficits they’ve faced. But such is often the nature of small sample game-state driven results (the Jets have had some costly early fumbles going a long way to influence game-state) and I don’t think the Broncos necessarily fit that mold of team in this matchup.

• The Jets have been a very efficient rushing attack on a down-to-down basis with 5.4 Yards Per Attempt, 3rd in the NFL. The problem from a team point of view as well as a game-state one is that they’ve had some costly rushing fumbles. The result is long drives without points—not exactly going to create many intriguing passing environments on the other side. But much of that is variance. And it is worth noting that the Broncos have been perhaps the best team in the NFL defending QB scrambles this year, so while Fields as a design runner can still cause some problems his ability to run the football should be somewhat diminished in this spot and have these second order volume effects we speak of.

• And it is also important to note that the Broncos are one of the heaviest pass-teams overall and where they are the most pass heavy is playing with the lead where they are 5% pass over expected, only behind the Chiefs for highest in the NFL.

• And of course, the matchup is a near dream spot against the Jets, 2nd to last in Pass EPA and allowing the 2nd most YAC and most explosive plays. Nix should have his way with the defense and he can certainly put up a large passing day and the Broncos remain aggressive. I’m fading the game-state narrative and the markets pricing of Nix attempts at only 31.5 and building through the passing game and its alts on the volume and efficiency fronts.