Week 6 Betting Gamplean
Tails & Matchup Angles, SGPs
Glad to have a full Sunday online for the first time since Week 1!
In this note we’ll cover some tails angles, SGPs, and some matchups the market is perhaps overlooking and mispricing. I will try and keep these as short and succinct as possible.
Tails Angles:
Not a huge card for me this week and the SGPs and matchups builds are some of my favorites and what I’ll be mainly building around. But some other quick hitters:
WAS
ATL is a huge pass funnel, meaning that they are far better against the run than the pass. WAS situation adjusted pass-rate is highest in the NFL so we can expect Howell to rip it early and often. If they’re going to build a lead I assume it will be done through production in the air. And if WAS has success passing, I’m not sold on Ridders ability to keep pace especially given the strength of the WAS D-line (Ridder has a terrible p2s rate). I’ll be playing some Howell alts and WAS spreads, even pushing out the spreads further than I normally would b/c of WAS pass rate and the potential for ATL to fall completely flat in that game script.
BUF
Very similar logic to last week when MIA played NYG. The state of the NYG O-line and offense is so bad that BUF might have far more play volume than expected simply by virtue of NYG being completely incapable of sustaining any drives. Combine that with an explosive BUF attack against a weak defense and they have potential to put up massive yardage totals. With the the Bills having a concentrated offense that flows through Diggs, Davis, and Cook I’ll be building some SGP’s around them.
SF:
Think the market is overreacting to the weather here. Winds are projected to be around 15 MPH which is right around the number that starts to influence the deep passing game. But SFs offense barely operates on the sorts of deep throws that would be influenced by wind. I’ll always buy elite offenses> good/elite defenses when the offense is priced at a discount. And with the potential for an awful CLE offense on the other side, SF might see a large uptick in play volume as well.
CHI:
Very similar logic to the big SGP cash last week. Books are pricing in medians whose sample is building in a Chicago offense that looks very different than its current iteration. Especially with 3 RB’s inactive, I would not be shocked to see Chicago lean on Fields even more— via higher pass rate and more designed runs. The tails from a 191 passing prop is just far too low considering the matchup vs MIN combined with their new offensive attack. Add in that more dropbacks means more Fields scrambles and the correlation between alt passing+and alt rushing yds leaves many intriguing SGP opportunities.
DET:
Can read my deep dive into this matchup here in this week’s “Leveraging Tails”
Matchups:
ANGLE: QB JUSTIN HERBERT MITIGATES THE DALLAS COWBOYS PASS RUSH
• The Dallas Cowboys pass rush has been absolutely ferocious this season, generating quick pressure at the highest rate in the NFL. However, this pass rush has masked some deficiencies in the secondary, as the team ranks fourth-worst in perfect coverage rate.
• In other words, we want to attack the Cowboys in spots where their pass rush can’t overwhelm. And as you can see, the Chargers have been below average at limiting quick pressure, but it hasn’t influenced their offensive success much.
• As we studied in our study on scrambling, Herbert’s ability to extend plays and scramble mitigates the effect of a poor offensive line. Since entering the league, only Patrick Mahomes has generated more expected points added (EPA) on true scrambles, and he is behind only Mahomes and Josh Allen in terms of his sack rate on true scrambles.
• Assuming Herbert can mitigate the pass rush, this Dallas defense is far weaker than the seventh-priced unit the market has pegged it as.
Best bets: Bet the Chargers over 24.5 points (+105), moneyline and alt spreads. Also, look to target Chargers -5.5 and Herbert alt passing props.
ANGLE: THE JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS OFFENSE HAS ITS WAY AND STACKS EXPLOSIVE PLAYS
• The Indianapolis Colts defense has surprised to this point in the season, fielding a defense that ranks toward the middle of the pack in most efficiency metrics.
• However, they have really struggled to stymie explosive plays, as they have allowed a league-worst 12% explosive play percentage through five weeks. As we studied earlier this year, explosive plays are essential to drive-level success, and the Jaguars should rack up plenty of explosive plays in this game.
• The chart above shows quarterback accuracy on deep passes, along with their big-time throw rate. It is essentially a view of a quarterback’s floor (X-axis) and ceiling (Y-axis) throwing deep.
• The fundamentals look terrific for Lawrence, who is firmly in the top right corner. And to this point of the season, the only reason why his results haven’t matched the fundamentals is that he’s been on the wrong end of some fluky drops.
• We should expect this to turn, especially in this matchup. The Jaguars, certainly on the tails, are mispriced.
Best bets: I’ll be targeting Jaguars over team totals, Jaguars wide receivers longest reception props and layer ingon Jaguars same-game parlays that play the angle that the Jaguars build a lead due to their explosive passing attack. (For the SGP builds I’ll be prioritizing Ridley against an IND team that plays most zone in the NFL. On JAX, Ridley has by far the highest target share vs zone)
SGPs:
STORY: C.J. STROUD LEANS ON NICO COLLINS FOR A BIG PASSING DAY AGAINST AN OVERRATED NEW ORLEANS SAINTS DEFENSE
• Stroud has been dominant from clean pockets this year, which he should have plenty of in Week 6 because of the improved health of the Texans' offensive line.
• The Saints have also generated quick pressure at a bottom-20th-percentile rate, which should give Stroud the time he needs to continue his strong rookie campaign.
• The market pricing respects the Saints defense, giving low prop numbers for Stroud. However, this is likely the unit's toughest test yet, as the Houston passing offense has been surprisingly good this season.
• The Saints have played the seventh-most man coverage in the NFL this season. Nico Collins has shined against these looks through five weeks, generating the third-most yards per route run and producing above-average separation numbers.
• The Texans will be without Tank Dell, leaving a higher target share for Collins. If the Texans are to have success through the air, it will almost certainly flow through Collins.
PointsBet SGP build: +3500
WR Nico Collins: 6+ receptions
WR Nico Collins: 125+ receiving yards
QB C.J. Stroud: 300+ passing yards
STORY: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES BUILD LEAD THROUGH THE AIR AGAINST PASS-FUNNEL NEW YORK JETS
• The Jets have fielded one of the best defenses in the league over recent years, but they will be without the dominant starting cornerback duo of Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed in Week 6.
• The above chart shows the teams that are better against the pass than the run. The Jets are one of the league's biggest pass funnels, as teams have far more success passing against them.
• The Eagles have varied their pass rates from week to week, but given the Jets' injuries and stout run defense, the Eagles figure to tilt to the air in this spot.
• When the Eagles turn to the air, there is enough volume for both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith to hit ceiling games because their target share is so condensed.
FanDuel SGP Build: + 8264
QB Jalen Hurts: 300+ passing yards
WR A.J. Brown: 125+ receiving yards
WR DeVonta Smith: 90+ receiving yards
Philadelphia Eagles: -6.5
STORY: LAS VEGAS RAIDERS RELY ON THE PASSING GAME EN ROUTE TO A WIN OVER THE STRUGGLING NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
• One of the bigger mismatches of the week is that of the Raiders receivers against a depleted Patriots secondary that plays the most man coverage in the NFL.
• Man coverage reflects the talents on the field more than zone, as good receivers consistently beat good corners, and vice versa. Davante Adams running routes against J.C. Jackson spells absolute trouble for New England.
• The strength of this New England defense is its run defense, where the team ranks fifth in rushing success rate allowed. So, even if the Raiders build a lead, they should continue to pass and press their advantage against the Struggling Pats.
PointsBet SGP Build: +4000
RB Josh Jacobs: under 70.5 rushing yards
WR Davante Adams: 110+ receiving yards
QB Jimmy Garoppolo: 275+ passing yards
Las Vegas Raiders: -5.5
That’s all for this week!
As always, appreciate the support and let’s have ourselves a day!