Week 7 Betting Gameplan
Tails & Matchup Angles, SGPs
A glorious fall Sunday morning on the east coast, with perfect hoodie weather and a wonderful slate of football ahead.
In this note we’ll cover some tails angles, SGPs, and some matchups the market is perhaps overlooking and mispricing. I will try and keep these as short and succinct as possible.
Tails Angles:
Not too many angles for me today, and we’ll talk about the Giants deep passing game, MIA’s explosive offense, and you can read in depth my DET tail case here. But some other quick hitters.
LAR:
Because of his trais, we often talk about wanting to bet Stafford in spots where he has the situational advantage. And the Steelers have the advantage in the pass-rush but are extremely beatable in the secondary. With cluster injuries to LAR RB’s it would be totally unsurprising to see the Rams come out extremely pass-heavy, leveraging their quick game where Kupp, Nakua, and Atwell all should have the matchup advantage.
PITs offense has been absolutely dreadful so far this season, dead last in EDP and last in rate of forcing coverage mistakes, and with the most throws into tight windows by a wide margin. These make it less likely they can take advantage of a beatable LAR offense.
The Rams are going to be throwing and there are clear paths to mitigating the Steelers pass-rush and Stafford putting up another 300 yd passing day in a Rams win. And if the Steelers offense continues to remain this bad (market has them as 21st best offense) the Rams can certainly with with margin. I’ll be betting those angles.
TB vs ATL:
Both of these teams are run-heavy slow pace teams with low-play volume.
But these teams are also two of the biggest pass-funnell teams—meaning that it is far easier to throw against them than it is to run. Adjusted for situation, teams pass against TB more than any other team and ATL is trending in that same direction. This could lead to increased passing volume on both sides which presents value considering their current prices sample builds in medians of low-volume, low efficiency offenses.
CHI:
Hold the nose… we know nothing about Tyson Bagent and neither do the oddsmakers. Going up against a bad Raiders D with severely depressed props I’m going to play the uncertainty on the tails. With explosive WRs not much needs to go that right— and the QB doesn’t even need to play well!— for Bagent alts (Bears spreads?) to hit.
Matchup Angles:
Angle: MIA mitigates the PHI Pass rush and throws the ball at will.
Two important notes stick out from this chart vis-a-vis the Dolphins Eagles matchup. First, PHI, despite its all world talent on the defensive line, has been merely average at generating quick pressure. Second, the Dolphins have been terrific at avoiding quick pressure which is largely a feature of how quickly the team has been able to get rid of the ball.
Tua Tagovailoa has the quickest time to throw in the NFL, yet has still maintained a far above average ADOT. If PHI cannot generate quick pressure, in order to stop this MIA offense, the team will need their secondary to lock down the MIA WRs.
But the secondary, as it currently stands, simply does not have the personnel to cover the MIA explosive passing attack. Josh Jobe has been the 3rd worst CB preventing separation this year, Bradberry 18th worst, Slay 24th worst.
Bets: Despite PHI being priced as the 8th best defense in the NFL, the MIA pass O seems to have a huge matchup advantage. I’ll be playing Tua alts, Tua alts + MIA spreads building some SGPs telling the story of MIA dominating PHI.
Matchup Angle: CLE man heavy D shuts down IND offense
No team has played more man coverage this season than the Cleveland Browns whose rate of man coverage has jumped up steeply over the last few weeks. As we studied at PFF, man coverage reflects the talent on the field where good WRs beat good CBs and vice versa.
And the Colts WRs have really struggled to generate any separation or production against man coverage, and will have their hands tied with Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome and Martin Emersome, all of whom grade well above average in terms of separation prevented.
Add in that Gardner Minshew rarely scrambles and struggles when doing so, and this magnifies the poor environment he finds himself.
Bets: Markets are already low on the IND, but this is one of the worst situational spots given the above matchup angles. I’ll be betting on IND lowest scoring team +1200 (6th shortest odds), as well as CLE spreads, IND team U and perhaps some under props as well.
SGPs:
Story: New York Giants QB Tyrod Taylor hits Jalin Hyatt deep against beatable Washington Commanders secondary
The Washington defense has struggled mightily defending explosive plays allowing the sixth-highest rate of explosive pass attempts and the third-highest explosive drive rate. Jalin Hyatt meanwhile is only behind Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson in his grade on deep routes.
Hyatt saw his snap share increase drastically last week, playing close to 75% of the snaps. So while his median prop builds in mostly games where Hyatt was only a part-time player, there is little reason to think he won’t continue to remain on the field and become a focal point of this Giants offense.
While the Giants offensive line is beat up and among the worst in the NFL, Tyrod Taylor’s ability to scramble, as we studied, should help to mitigate that weakness where he can create enough time to have opportunities to attack WAS deep. With the props so low for the Giants passing attack, not much needs to go right for Hyatt and Taylor to fly over their props.
Build: FD + 2608
QB Tyrod Talyor, New York Giants: 250+ passing yards
WR Jalin Hyatt, New York Giants: 60+ receiving yards
Story: Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen leans on Gave Davis in the passing game
NE has faced a gauntlet of WR1s so far this season but has limited each of them– AJ Brown 79 yards, Tyreek Hill 40, Garett Wilson 48, Ceedee Lamb 36, Chris Olave 12, Davante Adams 29. But the rest of the defense has struggled mightily, especially as injuries have piled up leaving the team with no cornerbacks even above average in PFF Grade.
This should filter plenty of targets to Gabe Davis, the clear #2 for the Bills offense.
And Davis has been among the games best receivers at both the catchpoint and after the catch and should see plenty of open space against this porous secondary and with a depleted pass rush that should leave Josh Allen plenty of time to throw.
Always a deep and red zone threat, Davis should have plenty of room to operate and should see his targets elevated in a spot that filters targets and production to secondary WRs.
Points Bet Build +2500:
WR Gabe Davis, Buffalo Bills: 95+ receiving yards
WR Gabe Davis, Buffalo Bills: Touchdown scorer
Story: Miami Dolphins passing offense explodes, with WR Jaylen Waddle leading the way:
We discussed in our matchups column the reasons to be bullish on the Miami Dolphins passing attack in this matchup including the weak Philadelphia Eagles secondary and how MIA’s time to throw allows them to mitigate the effects of opposite pass-rushes.
And while Jaylen Waddle has yet to top even 90 yards this season it seems as though it is only a matter of time until he explodes as his underlying numbers remain elite. Waddle is earning targets at 29% clip (11th highest in NFL) and is well above average in terms of separation, deep grade, grade at the catchpoint and after the catch.
And where Waddle looks especially terrific is in zone coverage where he has been among the games best WRs, and where PHI plays most of their coverages (except for a man-heavy Week 4).
Waddle's props are depressed as a result of failing to produce yards so far this season but his underlying play and matchup suggest a ceiling game is on its way soon.
Build: PointsBet +4000
QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 300+ passing yards
WR Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins: 125+ receiving yards
Miami Dolphins: -2.5
That’s all for this week! As always appreciate the support and spread the good word! Let’s have ourselves a day.
Thank you brother. We are here. The silent majority. Hope all is well. We stand with you.