Week 7 Betting Gameplan

A full slate of football from 9:30 AM EST till midnight, we are truly so blessed. To the many of new readers— welcome! In this note we’ll cover some tails angles (those not covered in other sections— SGPs + matchups have some within them!), some matchups the market is perhaps overlooking and mispricing and some SGPs. I will try and keep these as short and succinct as possible and apologies for any typos— this is the cost of having to write these quick, especially with a London game on our hands.

Tails Angles:

NE + Maye:

• This is a prime spot we’ve been attacking for the past few years given the uncertainty and potential upside a QB like Maye offers. Would it be entirely shocking for us to look back in 8 weeks and say remember when we were able to bet Maye alts with a 200 yard prop? Or said differently, if we see this or a similar matchup in 2 months time—when we have more available information— is the line more likely to move closer to 250 or 180? I would think the risk here is asymmetric and it far likliker the lines moves way up than it does the reverse

• And this is certainly a great matchup against a JAX D allowing the 2nd worst EPA/Play and perhaps more importantly, for Maye given the state of the offensive line, a team that is bottom 5 in pressure rate and in the bottom of league in most pressure categories. The D is allowing a bottom 3 rate of explosive plays— you get the idea, nearly any metric will suggest this a bottom of the barrel defense. The Jaguars are also the biggest pass funnell in the NFL by EPA— meaning they are far easier to pass against than run against which should lead to plenty of attempts against a weak secondary.

• Against a Jacksonville team that plays man coverage at a top 5 rate despite not having the personnel for it— man coverage reflects talent matchup much more so than zone coverage. Demario Douglass has been a top 5 separator vs man (peep matchup advantage) and has a massive 28% target share to go with it.

• I like the Maye alts + NE spread alone but why not let’s ride a deep SGP(s) together here as well on DraftKings putting everything together.