Another week another rush to get this out (typos inevitable). I have some Week 7 Adrenaline Lined Up With Sean Lee & Zack Martin is live + some fun shorts on the YouTube page. (like and subscribe :) ) And my favorite episode that we’ve done by far, so check that out.
Leveraging Tails
Many NFL bettors start with individual markets — spreads, totals or player props — and ask, “Which spread looks good?” or “Which totals stand out this week?” It’s a bottom-up approach: Start with the bet, then decide whether the underlying game script supports it.
In this space, we’ll work in reverse. Each week, we’ll focus on one game and take a top-down approach, starting with the broader picture of how the teams and players are performing and what the data suggests about the matchup. From there, we’ll identify the betting markets that best align with that expected game script.
The goal is to form a view of how the game is likely to unfold first, then find the spreads, totals and props that offer the best ways to bet on that outcome. And while we can’t walk through this full process each week this should provide a window into how to build a process to beyond the logic for this game and matched with ones own opinions.
