Week 8 Betting Gameplan

Tails & Matchups Angles + SGPs

Sweet stretch of the season, let’s get right into it. As usual, In this note we’ll cover some tails angles (those not covered in other sections— SGPs + matchups have some within them!), some matchups the market is perhaps overlooking and mispricing and some SGPs. I will try and keep these as short and succinct as possible and apologies for any typos— this is the cost of having to write these quick.

Tails Angles:

CLE:

• We haven’t seen much of Winston over the last few years and given just how bad the offense was with Watson, this is a difficult one to price. Not only that, but Cleveland will have a new offensive play caller this week in Ken Dorsey.

• But difficult to price sometimes lends itself to the tails outcomes. What we do know of Winston is that he has been one of the most aggressive downfield passers when playing which has led to plenty of yardage and mixed efficiency. Winston figures to get plenty of volume— his attempt prop sits at 35.5, though his expected efficiency per attempt is lagging behind with a prop of only 237.5

• But Baltimore, who has struggled on pass defense, allowing the 4th worst Yards Per Attempt and 5th worst pass EPA. And the team will be without two of their starting CBs in Marlon Humphrey— who has been in 97th percentile preventing separation this season— as well as first round backup Nate Wiggins. It is also worth noting that the Cleveland O-line has gotten significantly healthier in weeks (relative to the bulk of Watson starts) returning RT Jack Conklin and OG Wyatt Teller set to return in this one. The attempts are sure to come as the market anticipates against a pass-funnell Ravens but there are paths to efficiency as well.

• Said differently, it is one thing to back Trevor Siemian to put the team on his back as a big underdog— his ceiling is limited. But Winston in a one game sample presents a different story where he does have the ceiling to pass his team to victory, and in this matchup given the state of the Baltimore secondary that path appears more likely than the market anticipates. I’ll be on the Winston alts and Winston + CLE SGPs.

IND/HOU:

• On the HOU side of the ball, Stroud has been one of the best QBs in the NFL both this year and last when not facing disruption and the Colts have the 3rd worst disruption rate so far this season as they navigate some key defensive injuries.

  

• But Stroud has also had the lowest explosive pass play rate against zone which the Colts play the 4th most in the NFL. And Stroud is still without his primary zone beater from last year in Nico Collins. Multiple angles here to play both sides of the coin, I think.

• On the Colts side we are going to see wide distributions for Richardson given just how reliant he is on explosive plays for offensive production (see chart below in SGP section). But if there were ever a spot for the IND deep balls to connect a matchup with HOU is as good a bet as any. For 2 years now the team has faced one of the deepest depths of targets (2nd highest this year) to go along with 2nd highest rate of deep attempts against. Houston schematically filters teams to pass deep. All it takes is a few of those to connect for AR to have a big day and for this game to shootout.

• Can see this game going a bunch of different ways but there is certainly a path to both offenses hitting on some big passing days and creating a game script which forces the other to be far more aggressive creating. a wonderful scoring environment for SGPs.

LAC:

• I’m just going to copy what I wrote on Monday since I think it still applies given the market pricing (and boy that was close to some real fun).

  • But I want to instead focus on the LAC side of this game. After going -7 to -10% pass above expectation in the first 4 weeks of the season, coming off the bye, the Chargers passed 2% above expectation last week.

  • Now could that have been an anomaly? Absolutely. But the market is pricing this team as an extreme extreme run-heavy team (27.5 attempts for Herbert!) and there is a nonzero chance this team turns heavily to the pass.

  • And if they turn to the pass? We have Herbert going up against a Cardinals defense bottom 5 in basically every pass-defense metric including: EPA, coverage mistakes, pressure rate, quick pressure rate, disruption rate etc, etc. This is also not some random QB, but a QB who has obviously had immense success in the past and has returned 2 stout OT from injury in Alt and Slater.

• The Chargers continued with their pass heavy ways doing so 3.5% of the time last week, and once again have a matchup against a struggling D. The Saints have allowed nearly 7 YPA the last month, their disruption rate and pressure rate have been bottom 3 over that span as well. The market is still pricing in Herbert as a low volume QB, but that is not the offense the Chargers have run off the bye. If they once again continue in a pass heavier ways then Herbert is once again badly mispriced here.

TB:

• Going on long so will stick a bit more to quick hitters. We want to bet on Baker Mayfield in spots where he has the pass rush advantage. For years now, Baker has been a well below average QB when facing pressure, and been top 10 when kept clean. ATL is bottom 5 in pressure and quick pressure rate and themselves dealing with some major injuries in the secondary.

• On the WR side the team is obviously dealing with some major injuries driving this price decently far to ATL. And while the sample is small, Liam Cohen’s offense has increased separation rates for Evans + Godwin this season and Sheppard and Mcmillan have both been well above average themselves. There is reason to believe that he can scheme guys open and that losing those 2 WRs matters less to a team like TB than if they were on a team like the Eagles. I’ll be on the TB passing game here.

MIA:

• This is not the first time Tua has come back from a serious concussion and I anticipate that he will be all systems go. And with a healthy Tua we have a robust sample of the Dolphins being one of the best offenses in the NFL. This is especially true against bottom quartile defenses where the team ranks by far #1 in EPA and most other efficiency metrics. Considering the offensive right tail here MIA can win with some serious margin and put up some massive yardage days, where, especially on the props side, markets are weighing this years sample (or Tua rust?) so far a bit too heavily.

Matchup Angles:

The Green Bay Packers‘ Explosive plays against the Jacksonville Jaguars Defense

In a 2022 data study, we highlighted the critical role of explosive plays in the NFL, noting that generating even a single explosive play significantly boosts the chances of a successful drive. The Jaguars have struggled in this area, allowing the third-highest rate of explosive plays in the league.

The Jaguars have deployed man coverage at the third-highest rate in the NFL this season. PFF’s studies show that in man coverage, more so than in zone, superior talent often prevails. All of Green Bay's receivers have consistently earned above-average separation against man coverage, while Jacksonville's cornerbacks have struggled to prevent it.

This chart unites both angles: the Packers hold advantages in explosive play potential and man coverage success. Much of Jordan Love's explosive production has come against man coverage, where he ranks third in explosive play rate; against zone coverage, he falls closer to the league average.

While the market likely accounts for Jacksonville’s defensive struggles, this matchup suggests their defense may perform even worse than usual against Green Bay’s explosive, man-coverage-savvy offense. I’m backing the Packers' team total, Love’s passing overs, and some same-game parlays that frame the Packers winning through explosive passing plays.

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Philadelphia Eagles passing success against a bad Cincinnati Bengals defense

After some disappointing offensive outings, particularly for their passing game against the Browns and Giants, the market has notably soured on the Eagles’ passing attack.

However, as discussed in last week’s column, there were clear reasons to anticipate these struggles. The offensive line’s challenges and Jalen Hurts' sensitivity to disruptive pressure—where the Giants lead the NFL and the Browns excel, especially in quick pressure—created a tough scenario.

However, this week’s matchup against the Bengals presents a different test altogether.

The Bengals rank sixth-worst in the NFL in quick pressure rate, which could benefit an Eagles offense that has struggled with quick pressure this season. Hurts should have more time in the pocket, allowing him to dissect the Bengals' secondary and regain his rhythm.

Pass rush and coverage are interconnected; the Bengals' struggles to generate quick pressure also impact their coverage effectiveness. They hold the league's lowest perfect coverage rate, a critical metric, as PFF research shows that consistently executing perfectly covered plays significantly impacts game outcomes.

Hurts has faced an average rate of non-perfectly covered plays, but he ranks among the NFL's top players in EPA on those opportunities. With more time in the pocket and against a secondary that struggles to achieve perfect coverage, Hurts appears well-positioned to capitalize.

I’ll be targeting Hurts’ prop overs, the Eagles’ team total overs, and some same-game parlays that project success for Philadelphia through the air.

Leveraging Tails:

San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (+285 on FanDuel)

Let us begin as usual by looking at the team fundamentals to set the frame for our analysis and to understand how this game is being priced.

As the above chart shows, the 49ers are in a different tier than the Cowboys, as they have outperformed them on both offense and defense.

The story is similar when examining EPA per play or other production-based efficiency metrics. Considering on-field performance, adjustments for home field and the fact that Dallas is coming off its bye, this game might be expected to be closer to a 7-point spread than the current 4.5 points (as of this writing).

The 49ers are navigating significant injuries — including the season-ending ACL injury to star WR Brandon Aiyuk — with George Kittle and Deebo Samuel also managing injuries or illness. This raises two key questions: Does the six-week production sample provide a reliable indicator of future performance? And, to what extent should we downgrade the 49ers, given Aiyuk's absence and the potential limitations for Samuel and Kittle?

Let's begin with the wide receiver situation. Shanahan’s scheme is particularly relevant here. Even before San Francisco’s talent influx, his system consistently produced offenses that ranked well above average in separation generated. In other words, the 49ers may be less affected by wide receiver injuries than other teams might be.

This matchup with Dallas may further ease the impact of the 49ers’ receiver injuries, as the Cowboys have allowed the most separation of any team in the NFL for the second consecutive year.

The Cowboys’ pass rush has been near league average overall, but Micah Parsons accounts for roughly 25% of their pressures and likely creates additional opportunities due to the attention he draws. He is, of course, out this week.

Matchup Angle

This brings us to the first key matchup angle: The Dallas defense has struggled to generate meaningful disruption, whether through tight coverage or pressure that prevents plays from developing.

Dallas has the NFL's second-lowest total disruption rate and third-lowest pressure disruption rate, indicating likely continued struggles in defensive production. But more to the point, let us also pay attention to the base rate here of a 30% disruption rate. 

Brock Purdy has faced a 40% disruption rate this season. However, if the 49ers encounter pressure rates closer to the Cowboys' baseline, his projection improves significantly. Purdy has excelled with a clean pocket, generating an additional 0.50 points per play in those situations.

So far, we’ve focused on the 49ers' passing offense, but they also hold a clear matchup advantage on the ground. Dallas ranks last in EPA allowed per rush —having performed more than twice as poorly as the next-worst team — and has given up the league's third-worst success rate against the run.

The 49ers have generated a top-10 rate of perfect blocks and EPA per rush, which are usual in a Shanahan offense. So, no matter how the 49ers choose to attack against this Dallas defense, they should have success.

On the Dallas side of the ball, the team has some major systemic problems. 

Dallas has generated the second-lowest separation rate of any team, and as a result, QB Dak Prescott has thrown into tight windows 25% of the time — by far the highest rate in the NFL. 

This has resulted in a high turnover rate—which is no surprise, given the tendency to throw into tight windows, where interceptions occur ten times more often than in open throws—and a notably high inaccuracy rate.

These metrics come despite Dallas facing the second-highest single coverage rate. Outside of CeeDee Lamb, no Dallas receiver has consistently won one-on-one matchups, and there’s little reason to expect improvement in this area against the 49ers.

Bottom line: The market has undervalued the 49ers due to their injuries. However, Shanahan’s ability to scheme receivers open and the favorable matchup against Dallas suggest these injuries—assuming the players even miss Sunday—may not significantly impact the 49ers’ outlook. With San Francisco’s scoring potential and Dallas’ offensive struggles, this is a matchup where the 49ers have a strong chance to win decisively.

SGPs:

Story: Sterling Shepard has big day filling in for Chris Godwin

The Buccaneers are certainly decimated to injury, losing both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Specifically given Godwin’s injury, Sterling Sheppard should step into a featured role in the slot. 

• And Shepherds underlying numbers look great both with above average separation as well as one of the best marks at the catchpoint. 

• He will face a Falcons defense that struggles to defend the slot where Dee Alford has ranked in the 15th percentile preventing separation where has been targeted on nearly a 4th of his routes in coverage.

Build: Sterling Shepard 7 catches + 75 yards 30:1 on Bet 365

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Story: Purdy burns Cowboys Deep in 49ers win

• In the Cowboys non-Watson games the team is allowing a league high 8.1 YPA, with the lowest disruption rate, worst explosive play rate allowed and bottom in basically any coverage metric. Without Parsons again, the team figures to bleed production on the pass defense.

• And Purdy has had 50% of his yards come via the explosive play despite not throwing deep often. In other words, per pass completion Purdy is gaining more yards than any QB other than Anthony Richardson.

• With the market selling on the 49ers passing attack– both because of the injuries and that Dallas is vulnerable against the run, we can take advantage of Purdy’s characteristic in this matchup betting on him to throw for some deep bombs against this defense– even if the team goes run-heavy. 

Build 35:1 on DK

Purdy 300 Yards + SF -4.5 + U 20.5 completions 35:1

That is all for this week! As always, appreciate the support and help spread the good word about throwthedamball— there’s even a refer-a-friend setup for those kind enough to share + generate new subs. Either way, let’s have ourselves a day!