Week 8 Betting Gameplan
Matchup & Tails Angles, SGPs
In this note we’ll cover some tails angles, SGPs, and some matchups the market is perhaps overlooking and mispricing. I will try and keep these as short and succinct as possible.
It’s a full slate today but still a relatively light card for me. We’ll talk about the Giants deep passing game, MIA’s offense, Stroud with time against a D that bleeds explosives, and you can read in depth my JAX tail case here. But some other quick hitters.
Tails Angles:
LAR:
Same deal as last week with the Rams— if they can get through a ferocious pass rush they should have their way with the Cowboys secondary. But that is certainly easier said than done against a DAL team that leads the NFL in quick pressure rate. Still, I’d argue the Rams are a better offense at this point than the Cowboys and 6.5 points is too much for an inferior or at least same caliber of offense.
If the Rams are going to win, it will all but definitely be on the back of Stafford as he navigates away from the Cowboys Pass rush. I’ll sprinkle some Stafford alt yds and Rams alt spreads
CIN:
The central question here, I think, is how one views Burrows health. And while I’m no DR, there was some encouraging data from the 2 weeks before the bye which suggested some buy signals. Burrow had been throwing within 2.3 seconds each of his first 4 games, too soon for his WRs to generate separation on their longer developing routes. In his last 2 that number ticked up to around 2.5, still quick but where he was at the end. of last year when the CIN offense was booming.
Moreover, Burrows ability to extend the plays dramatically increased the last 2 weeks. His time to throw after pressure arrived, what I call “play extension” was 1.5 and 1.6 seconds the 2 weeks before the bye whereas the previous 4 games it was an average of 0.75. seconds Whether 100% healthy or not—and the bye should only help—as a QB who relies on his ability to extend the play, his playing the same style as pre-injury leads me to think the 2 weeks success pre-bye has more signal projecting forward than the 4 weeks before.
If the above is true then there is certainly some value against the 49ers as 5.5 point dogs, especially as the Niners struggle with some key injuries. ( I spoke about this at more length on the Matchbook Podcast) I’ll be buying some CIN on the alts— and we know they’re going to live and die by Burrow so I’ll be layering on his props with the alt spreads.
Matchup Angles:
MATCHUP ANGLE: C.J. STROUD GETS THE CLEAN POCKETS HE THRIVES IN TO BEAT THE CAROLINA PANTHERS DEEP DOWN THE FIELD
• Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has been among the game's best from a clean pocket. Through seven weeks, the rookie signal-caller has generated 0.6 expected points added (EPA) per pass play when he's been kept free from pressure, one of the league's best marks.
• The issue for Stroud and the Texans is that he’s rarely had clean pockets to operate from. Part of that was a function of the offensive line, which suffered some cluster injuries early in the season but is now far healthier.
• However, this shouldn't be a concern against a Carolina Panthers defense that currently ranks in the bottom percentile in quick pressure generated.
• The Panthers have allowed an explosive play on 10.2% of the pass plays they have faced, the second-highest rate in the NFL. Of course, more time in the pocket will enable teams to attack further downfield, where C.J. Stroud has excelled.
• It is unlikely that Stroud continues to put up those gaudy numbers, but this is at least likely to be directionally accurate. And with the time in the pocket, Stroud should be able to attack deeper down the field in Week 8.
Bets to make: Texans spread, Texans alt spreads & C.J. Stroud passing overs, Texans team total overs
MATCHUP ANGLE: THE MIAMI DOLPHINS PASSING OFFENSE DOMINATES THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS‘ MAN-HEAVY SCHEME
• Following a disappointing Week 7 loss for Miami and a surprising Patriots win over the Buffalo Bills, markets moved across 10 from the lookahead line in favor of the Patriots.
• But this matchup provides an enormous advantage for the Dolphins, even after stripping away the team fundamentals. As we've studied at PFF, man coverage (more so than zone) will reflect the talent on the field — it is a coverage scheme where good receivers will beat inferior cornerbacks more often than not, and vice versa.
• New England plays man coverage at the third-highest rate in the NFL despite the recent struggles of their cornerbacks. Jonathan Jones owns the highest coverage grade of the group at 59.2, 76th out of 117 qualifiers. It only gets worse from there.
• Meanwhile, Miami fields some of the best man-beaters in the NFL. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have owned opposing cornerbacks in recent years, and QB Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL in EPA vs. man coverage since 2022.
Bets to make: Dolphins team totals, Tua Tagovailoa passing yards, same-game parlays around the Dolphins offense and passing game.
SGPS:
STORY: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS QB TREVOR LAWRENCE LEANS ON CHRISTIAN KIRK IN A JUICY MATCHUP
• We discussed the reasons to be optimistic about the Jaguars passing game in our leveraging tails article this week.
• The Pittsburgh Steelers play a man-heavy scheme, which should tilt targets toward Christian Kirk. Over the last two seasons, Kirk has earned a 28% target share against man coverage, nearly 10 percentage points higher than the next-closest Jaguars receiver.
• Kirk has dominated man coverage, too, producing the third-best separation grade in the NFL. With such a commanding share of the targets against these looks, Kirk should be featured often in Week 8.
• Further elevating this spot for Kirk is his matchup in the slot with cornerback Chandon Sullivan, who has really struggled to prevent separation, leading teams to attack him often in the slot.
PointsBet SGP Build: +2800
QB Trevor Lawrence: 300+ passing yards
WR Christian Kirk: 95+ receiving yards
Jacksonville Jaguars: Moneyline
STORY: NEW YORK GIANTS QB TYROD TAYLOR CONNECTS WITH NEW FAVORITE TARGET JALIN HYATT EN ROUTE TO A BIG DAY
• Offenses have far more success passing against the New York Jets than running, with the unit ranking in the top eight in expected points added (EPA) allowed per rush and in the bottom eight in EPA allowed per pass.
• Despite the reputation, the Jets' secondary is attackable. And prices are remarkably low on the Giants, as quarterback Tyrod Taylor has the lowest passing prop on the board.
• If Taylor and the Giants are to go over their prop, it will likely be for two reasons. The first is increased volume, where the matchup could tilt them toward the pass. The second is an increase in efficiency, likely due to deep passes, on which Taylor has been far more aggressive and successful than Daniel Jones.
• Sportsbooks are yet to adjust for Jalin Hyatt’s new role, hanging his prop line at only 20.5, even though the rookie pass-catcher has played more than 70% of his team's snaps in back-to-back weeks.
• The line builds in an irrelevant sample from when Hyatt was only a part-time player. The truth is that if any Giants receiver is going to go over his prop, it is likely Hyatt, who has seen the sixth-most air yards over the last two weeks and ranks second among receivers in PFF grade on deep targets over that time.
• We know Taylor will look deep to Hyatt, and if they can connect on a couple of deep passes, they can fly over their prop numbers.
PointsBet SGP Build 1: 30-1
QB Tyrod Taylor: 250+ passing yards
WR Jalin Hyatt: 80+ receiving yards
PointsBet SGP Build 2: 85-1
QB Tyrod Taylor: 250+ passing yards
WR Jalin Hyatt: 80+ receiving yards
New York Giants: Moneyline
STORY: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS WR RASHID SHAHEED BREAKS A DEEP TOUCHDOWN
• The Achilles heel for this Indianapolis Colts defense has been its inability to limit big gains, as they rank toward the bottom of the league in preventing explosive pass plays.
• Shaheed has been one of the game’s best, both in terms of his separation grade on deep routes and his ability to create after the catch.
• The Saints pass-catcher has run a route on at least 70% of his team's passing plays in back-to-back weeks, so it finally appears the Saints are letting him cook.
• The ever-talented wide receiver is in a great matchup to break a big one en route to a big day.
FanDuel SGP Build: +3612
WR Rashid Shaheed: 80+ receiving yards
WR Rashid Shaheed: Touchdown scorer
QB Derek Carr: 300+ passing yards
That’s all for this week! Thanks as always for the support and be sure to spread the good word!
Best of luck to all!