Week 9 Betting Gameplan
Tails & Matchup Angles + SGPs
There are few things as glorious as fall Sundays and I must say I’m incredibly excited for this slate, even as I’m left wondering how we’re already to week 9. But I digress. In this note we’ll cover some tails angles, SGPs, and some matchups the market is perhaps overlooking and mispricing. I will try and keep these as short and succinct as possible. And my apologies for any typos, trying to get this out quickly with enough time to place before the Germany game.
We’ll talk about the Texans matchup advantages, how we can leverage Herbert’s return to scrambling, as well as the changes Washington offense has made leaving me bullish on them in this spot vs NE. And as always, you can read my more in depth case for the Seahawks in this week’s “Leveraging Tails.” (will post on twitter as it is currently not yet published). But let’s get into some other quick hitter angles.
Tails Angles:
Daniel Jones Passing + Raiders U
Everyone is ready to write off the Giants passing offense as Daniel Jones props sit at a lowly 190 yards. But they should be returning Andrew Thomas—huge in a matchup against Maxx Crosby— and are now relatively healthy outside of Darren Waller. They will be facing a Raiders D’ bottom 10 in most efficiency metrics.
But this bet is also rooted in an angle betting on extra volume for the Giants offense as a result of its defense virtually shutting down the Raiders offense. Over the last month or so this Giants D’ has been quietly dominant, despite matchups with MIA, BUF and SEA. And while also a small sample, AOC’s pressure to sack rate (p2s) looks disastrously bad at 54%. Against a NYG team 4th in quick pressure, AOC’s p2s rates could stall many drives and give NYG extra possessions. Of course, this angle itself can be played in Vegas/AOC/Jacobs U’s/sack props etc, but where I really like this is that books are pricing the 2 angles as strongly negatively correlated whereas I see them as positively correlated. I love a Daniel Jones 250+ Passing Yards parlayed with LV U 21.5 +1400.
CAR vs IND:
Think this game has some sneaky shootout potential with 2 atrocious defenses. I don’t have a good feel where IND production may come from— Which RB will get the work against disastrous CAR run D? Will they lean on the pass? So I won’t be bettind directly into any angles with IND props, but the CAR side presents some intriguing opportunities.
The Panthers handed over play calling to Thomas Brown and while that is unlikely to turn Bryce Young into a superstar there is at least a bit more uncertainty and potential for upside. Not to mention, rookie QBs develop and get better as their rookie season goes along and this is a dream matchup against a woeful Colts secondary. I’ll be sprinkling some Panthers pass plays+ spreads and even betting a bit into some Jonathan Mingo parlays as he works his way into a never leave the field role (99% of snaps last week).
Lamb + DAL
I’m running long again, classic. Let’s keep this short: In games Dallas has needed to pass, Ceedee Lamb has been an absolute target monster, putting up truly gaudy numbers including 2 games with 140+ yards receiving. I don’t need to say more about how good Lamb is, we all know it.
And well, this matchup can’t be better against an Eagles team bleeding production to slot WR’s and in a game in which DAL should be passing plenty. Especially on Points Bet, I’m intrigued by some deep Lamb alts+ SGPs.
Matchup Angles:
Matchup Angle: CJ Stroud elevates HOU offense with clean pockets to work with
We are going back to the well with Stroud and the Houston Texans in this matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Buccaneers have struggled to generate pressure this year ranking 6th worst in quick pressure and 5th worst in pressure rate this season. This is especially relevant against C.J Stroud who has seen few clean pockets this season but has been dominant throwing from clean pockets.
Only Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers offense have generated a higher EPA from clean pockets than Stroud in the Texans. And with time to throw, Stroud and the Texans should be able to maximize their best weapon with in the deep passing game.
Stroud and the Texans have excelled in the deep passing game, where they are by far the best team from an EPA standpoint. And the matchup lends itself perfectly for the Texans as the Buccaneers have allowed the 6th highest rate of explosive plays against. Further, because they are far better against the run than the pass, teams pass against them 5% more than expected, leaving Stroud with plenty of opportunity to attack the weakness of their defense and elevate the Texans offense as a result.
Bets: Stroud passing O’s, HOU -3, HOU TT O, and some SGPs (more on that to come)
Matchup angle: Herbert’s scrambling mitigates effects of Jets defense.
In our piece on QB scrambling as part of the QB traits series at PFF, we discussed how a certain QB’s ability to scramble can mitigate the effects of a defensive matchup advantage.
Herbert has been one of the better scramblers so far this season and his numbers look even better accounting for the larger sample of his entire career where he is behind only Patrick Mahomes in EPA scrambling. And whereas last year Herbert was scrambling less as a result of a rib injury, Hebrert is back healthy scrambling this year, getting ever closer to the top right of this graph where QBs are the most matchup agnostic. Herbert now has 3 games this season with a scramble rate above 16%, after failing to do so in any game post his injury last season.
And while the New York Jets have been a terrific defense for a few years running this is still a team which has struggled to defend the pass. Prior to their game against Tommy Devito the Jets pass defense ranked 24th in Pass EPA. Now plenty of that was a function of facing a terrific slate of QBs, but that is no different against Justin Herbert and the Chargers.
While the market is pricing a steep discount on Herbert’s props and the Chargers offense, his ability to scramble to extend plays on his own should mitigate, at least more than market is giving credit for, the Jets pass rush and allow for extra time for his receivers to defeat the Jets secondary mitigating their effect on this game.
Bets: I’ll be betting on Herbert's O 251 yards as well as some chargers spread and Team Total overs.
SGPs:
Story: Dolphins lean on ground game in battle with Kansas CIty.
Among players with 50 rushes, Raheem Mostert has been among the very best this season in terms of Rush Yards Over Expected and EPA per rush. And Mostert should be aided by the return of perhaps Miami’s 2 best offensive lineman in OT Terron Armstead and C Conor Williams further opening the running lanes for the Dolphins.
And this matchup against Kansas City sets up for Miami to run the ball as the Chiefs have the 2nd worst Rush EPA Allowed and 6th worst Success Rate Allowed. Aside from the matchup it would be unsurprising for the Dolphins to try and lean on the run and keep Patrick Mahomes and company off the field.
Now if the Dolphins turn to the run–even if they are to have huge success– this is likely a function of a lower total game script; a game in which 1) the Dolphins either play from ahead playing ball control and keeping Mahomes off the field and or 2) their offense is not having explosive success further pushing them to the ground where they have success. Books however, are pricing over as more correlated, allowing us to take advantage in this parlay build.
Build: 30:1 on Draftkings
Raheem Mostert 12+ Rush Attempts:
Raheem Mostert 110 Rush Yards:
Game Total U 50
Story: Commanders systemic changes lead to big passing day for WRs in commanding win.
To try and limit the sacks taken by Sam Howell, the Washington Commanders have been sending more of its backs and TE’s to protect their QB which has meant both fewer sacks for Howell and also a more concentrated distribution of touches for Washington among their wide Receivers.
And this matchup sets up particularly well for the Commanders WR’s. Dotson and Mclaurin have the matchup advantage against the New England corners, none of whom are above average in PFF coverage grade. And this matters more considering that New England is one of the heaviest man coverage teams in the NFL where matchups are more of a reflection of talent on the field.
Further, this New England defense is one of the biggest pass-funnels in the NFL, further setting up this Washington pass offense already at the very top of the NFL in terms of their situation adjusted pass rate. This would suggest both volume and efficiency are on the Commanders side and there should be enough volume–especially with the newer more condensed target share– for both Mclaurin and Dotson to excel in this game.
Build: 110:1 on Points Bet
Howell 300 Yards
Dotson 95 Yards Receiving
Mclaurin 80 Yards Receiving
WAS -1.5
Story: Stroud Leans on Dell to take advantage of TBs
Tampa Bay is one of the biggest pass-funnels in the NFL meaning they are far easier to pass against than run. This tils teams towards the pass as opponents have passed 5% more than expected when playing the Buccaneers.
And as we touched on in our matchups piece, this spot against Tampa should leave Stroud with plenty of time to attack deep against a defense prone to allowing explosive plays.
And Tank Dell is primed to take advantage as one of the better receivers in terms of his ability to generate separation deep and his ability to win at the catchpoint and after the catch. With a robust target share even outside of his deep role, look for Dell to put up big numbers en route to a big day for the Texans passing attack
Build: +4000 on Points Bet:
C.J Stroud 300 Yds Passing
Tank Dell 95 Yds Receiving
Houston Texans -4.5
That’s it for this week. As always, thanks for the support and spread the good word!