Week 9 Betting Gameplan

Hard to believe we are already at the halfway point of the season, football season really does fly right by. As usual, In this note we’ll cover some tails angles (those not covered in other sections— SGPs + matchups have some within them!) some matchups the market is perhaps overlooking and mispricing, and we’ll hit on some SGPs. I will try and keep these as short and succinct as possible and apologies for any typos— this is the cost of having to write these quick.

Tails Angles:

JAX

• We have been talking the last few weeks about Hurt’s sensitivity to pressure where he has been the worst QB in the NFL in terms of EPA when facing pressure disruption.

  

• And I think this chart from Timo Riske helps visualize why the drop-off from Mailata to Fred Johnson is so important. The Eagles leave their tackles on and islands and they are going from perhaps the games most effective LT to one of the worst in a weak-link position group. This has a multiplier effect because, as we said, Hurts is far more than most NFL QBs, is far more sensitive to disruption pressure, dead last in EPA vs disruption pressure. And the base rate of disruption has gone from 13.5% to 24.5% since Mailta went down— peep chart, though it was only 17% against the Bengals bottom pass-rush last week.