Going to start with the longer form pieces here and we’ll be back with the full tails angles + SGPs tomorrow evening/night.
Be sure to check out some Week 9 Adrenaline Lined Up With Sean Lee & Zack Martin is live + some fun shorts on the YouTube page. (like and subscribe :) ) Also episode of Throwthedamshow will be out later tonight talking ball and betting with Ben Linsey. We focus there on matchup angles and ways the game can play out, and we spend plenty of time thinking through live angles so be sure to check that out and subscribe! More coming on that chanell as well *(insert prayer emoji)
Tails Angles:
NYJ ML/ -2.5/-5.5
Let us begin, as usual, by looking to the team fundamentals to set the frame for our analysis.
Looking at EDP, (Earned Drive Points) which quantifies a drive’s quality on a points per drive basis, as determined by how repeatable and sustainable the success on a drive was. The Chiefs have been better team on both sides of the ball, with the main gap coming a Jets D performing far worse than the Chiefs.
Or here we have a look at EPA/Play which reveals a similar story with a slightly better Chiefs offense and far better defense.
But the market is pricing this one as though the two teams are in completely different tiers with a 9.5/10 point spread and KC 80% to win. Most of the markets value comes from still pricing this Jets O as a bottom unit, with this market estimate from inpredictable having the Jets as 2.5 spread points worse than average and the 23rd best offense. From an EPA and EDP standpoint, on the fundamentals alone, that looks to be a mispricing.
But there are also matchup angles that would appear for the Jets to be in a decent spot offensively—at least on the tails. The KC D has struggled to stop the deep pass so far this season allowing the 3rd worst EPA/Play on deep balls. With some of the game’s best deep WRs (Cooper and Mitchell in particular) the Jets have had among the games most potent deep attacks even without Wilson (though that obviously dings the case here).
