Why the Chiefs are still # 1
I wrote last week about how I’m not panicked about the Chiefs record or play. They are still my #1 in the AFC. I didn’t expand last week but in the middle of writing the week 6 weekly reflection piece, I realized it might make more sense to expand my argument for the Chiefs in longer-form.
My Prior:
I began the season, like most did, under the assumption that the Chiefs were the best team in the league. Patrick Mahomes has been a transcendent QB, the best by analytical and traditional metrics since he entered the league. His teams have had immense success with him: the Chiefs entered with a 38-8 record with Mahomes starting, along with 3 conference championships berths and 2 super bowls appearances, and a Super Bowl victory. And, as Tej Seth brilliantly argued this offseason, Patrick Mahomes is only improving. That is all to say that in a sport defined by its variance and instability, Mahomes and the Chiefs success seemed to be among the most bankable and stable outcomes of 2021.
Qualitative and Noisy Change:
Noisy Change:
We’ve spoken on this blog about evaluating different types of change in trying to determine a team's fundamental value. (We identified the Bucs as a great value using this philosophy last time around, good times). But for those new to the blog: noisy change refers to a change in perception either by the public or market even though no new information emerged. To use an example from last year, the Bears started 5-1 and power rankings across media brands and even the market began to price the team as a 10-11 win team. But quarterbacked by Nick Foles, and led by a mediocre defense there was no reason to adjust the Bears prior only because they “varianced” their way to 5 early wins. And they did, eventually, regress to the .500 team they fundamentally were.
Qualitative Change:
And as I wrote last year in the Bucs article:
"Qualitative changes refer to fundamental changes where new information emerges and changes one's evaluation of a team(or player). These types of changes are less prone to variance and to which one should adjust their priors. The Buccaneers made a fundamental change by beginning to pass the ball further downfield on early downs. The result is perhaps the best offense in the league"
Advanced/Efficiency Metrics:
Offensively, it does not seem like the Chiefs have gotten worse, but to the contrary, by efficiency metrics, they have improved their play from the last 2 years.
Side note: Oh my was that 2018 offense good.
Scheme:
So if their efficiency does not appear to be all that different from previous Chiefs teams, perhaps their scheme has changed. Tej Seth and I wrote this offseason about the predictive power and comparative relevance of schemes year-over-year. And looking at the Chiefs scheme below(row 1 is 2021, row 2 2020) there does not appear to be much change schematically at all.
Key:
Proe_avg=pass rate over expected
Explo_attempt= Air_yard+Xyac>=20
third_and_long=3rd and 6 or longer
It seems that the offensive scheme and efficiency look awfully similar to the dominant Chiefs offenses of the past. There is certainly no reason for worry. If anything there are reasons to be more optimistic about this year's Chiefs offense, especially once the Chiefs turnover issues inevitably subside. I mean they’ve lost the most EPA from turnovers of any team and they are still putting up crazy efficiency numbers!
The Defense:
For defense, I don’t think we can apply the same sort of methodology of comparing the team year-over-year. Key personnel changes too frequently on defense, and defensive play is less stable year-over-year anyway. So let us instead look to this year and evaluate their efficiency and whether those numbers are sustainable or not.
The Chiefs defense has been brutally bad this year by any metric. These are their rankings through week 5( the week 6 numbers for some metrics have yet to be released at the time of this writing. )
32nd in defensive DVOA
31st in EPA/Play allowed.
32nd in Success rate allowed.
31st in PFF grade
But these total numbers are perhaps slightly skewed: The Chiefs are allowing an unsustainable rate of success(defined as EPA>0) on late downs, which are known to be less stable and more prone to variance.
Their opponents have succeeded 64% of the time on late downs.
To give some context, the gap between the Chiefs and the 2nd worst team is the same gap as #2 and #19. While the Chiefs defense might be legitimately bad, this rate of success can't be sustained going forward.
The Chiefs opponents through week 5:
EPA/play: 6,7,8,9,23
Offensive DVOA: 6,7,9,12,19
Yds/play 4,7, 11,12,17
And the question remains: Is this defense really that much worse than years previous? Let’s look to see how the Chiefs D of this year stacks up to the Chiefs defense since Mahomes entered the league in 2018.
EPA/Play 0.6 EPA (8th worst in the NFL)
SR Allowed: 47.5% (Worst in the NFL)
Sure, metrics like DVOA adjust for matchups, but this defense has faced a brutal stretch of opponents, likely further hurting their efficiency. Compound that with an unsustainable success rate allowed on unstable late downs, and we should expect their defense to regress a bit more to the mean as the season progresses and the schedule lightens. And what’s more, this defense doesn’t exactly represent a huge break from the Chiefs teams of the past that had no issue dominating the NFL.
Bottom line:
Not much has changed on the offensive side of the ball from the dominant Chiefs teams of the past. The defense is off to an unsustainable bad start driven by strong opponents and crazy late down success rates allowed. And not to mention, if CEH didn’t fumble against the Ravens, and 1 of 7 high variant 4th quarter plays against LAC went for KC-- would we even need to have this discussion about a 5-1 Chiefs team?
Looking beneath the surface, this is still the Chiefs juggernaut we have come to know and love. They have spoiled us with their greatness and we expect them to win each and every week. But there is variance in football and teams lose games. The resulting wins and losses, though, do not always reflect the fundamental value of a team. The Chiefs might have experienced some noisy change this year, but don’t buy it. Offense wins in football and the Chiefs are as good, if not better than ever before.
Buy the Chiefs now while you can-- in betting markets until they re-adjust their rankings, and in the futures market at +110 to win the division(sorry Brandon Staley) and even +750 to win the SB seems like a good value. I can't argue with a Mahomes MVP bet as a derivative as well
Thanks for reading and we'll be back shortly with Week 6's reflections.
I would really welcome any and all feedback--suggestions, criticism, DFS strategy, betting, anything. My DM's @throwthedamball are always open. Thanks for reading!