AFC East Preview

Central Questions + Tails + Data Angles

Over the next few weeks/ months, We’ll go division by division in these “divisional check in” highlighting some data nuggets and angles we find most valuable. While not every team will get a full breakdown, we’ll touch on every team as we work through the board. As always, the goal is to match the data presented with your own ideas and intuitions in forming theses on these teams. I have been running a bit long in the previews from earlier so going to try and keep these more focused and compact.

Let’s take a quick glance at Offensive and Defensive EDP, or Earned Drive Points which measures the efficacy and sustainability of drive level success, to set the baseline for our analysis. Of course EDP is just one metric and is by no means dispositive to team success. Nonetheless it should give us a rough frame from which we can analyze the division and teams.

Or a look here at 2025 EPA/Play on offense and defense

The Bills and Patriots were atop the division and league here on offense, with EDP downweighting the Patriots deep success a bit but suggesting a far better defense. Nonetheless, from a production standpoint there were 2 top offenses and with the Patriots getting a slight edge on defense. Miami was terrible on defense and below average on offense, and with the changes in coaching and at QB, this is a team projected for the fewest wins in the AFC. Likewise, the Jets were terrible on both sides of the ball and themselves have one of the lowest win totals in the AFC. But the market is suggesting this is still a heavy Bills division to win (~55%) and with the Jets and Dolphins soaking up nearly no expectancy of winning (~5%). With that framework set, let’s dive in.

NE:

Is Maye Elite?

I usually hate to answer “is this player elite” or where does this player rank from a theoretical point of view. But this question I think gets to the core of the Patriots season and reveals an interesting process point about evaluating QBs year to year.

Let’s use disruption, or plays when the defense either generates pressure to knock a QB off his rhythm or generates perfect coverage, as a proxy for the ability to play outside structure and create when the situation is bad. And non disruption are plays in which things go right and the offense is able to run its play and generate a positive outcome. On disruption plays it is often on the QB to create on his own, either by scrambling for positive outcomes, or making accurate throws into tight windows/creating an open window via a scramble (what we call Create Rate).

Maye was dominant in his rookie season in his ability to generate EPA on disruption plays (his create rate was also top percentile), but struggled on those plays where surroundings and system matter more. But with McDaniels back at OC and an improved cast, Maye improved immensely in 2025.

Now, much of that was due to Maye’s dominant deep season.

Maye was by far the best QB in the NFL throwing deep, earning well over a point per throw. And while Maye was one of the most accurate deep throwers, his EPA per play on deep passes was the 3rd highest rank over the last 7 years— extremely unlikely to sustain itself to the same degree (even if we can reasonably assume Maye to be one of the best deep passers in the NFL).

But working against the deep regression is an offense that improved at WR adding A.J Brown and Romeo Doubs. And even in a down season for Brown, this was still a player well above average in his ability to generate separation and both of Doubs and were atop the league in YPRR and represent big upgrades from the 2025 cast. For a QB with the 4th best system grade, there is still plenty of room to improve in system for Maye, as his surroundings improve at WR and as the team brings in upgrades to the OL with Alijah Vera Tucker (10/77 in his PFF grade in 2024) as well as first rounder Caleb Lomu as depth.

It makes sense for Maye to have an improved in area where surroundings matter more and where he saw a big upgrade last year. But it is the play while disturbed that also remained elite from year 1 to 2 and I’d argue for Maye that is to be exceptionally sticky.

As we discussed in “What is Create Rate”, there are multiple ways a QB can win vs a disrupting event. Maye, despite his profile of typical “pocket passer” which tends to coincide with good in system QBs, he is dominant in multiple ways creating.

Similar to the Dak example we used in that note, one of the ways to win against disruption is the ability to fit balls into tight windows and engineer a good throw where the coverage is good. And Maye has been dominant in that area, leading the NFL this past season in tight window accuracy and with similar numbers in 2024.

But Maye too can also win on the ground with his pocket awareness and his mobility. One of the best ways to beat disruption is to recognize the disruptor and scramble which Maye did on 38% of dropbacks only behind Jayden Daniels for most in the NFL. And the result was a player generating positive outcomes on disruption, and Maye turned in a 45% scramble run rate winning with his legs as well and one of the most successful in the NFL in the run area as well.

The point of which is to say: Maye’s underlying traits and skill sets suggest his dominant play when things break down is not fluke. His ability both to fit balls into tight windows while also his pocket mobility, awareness, and scramble running are the exact traits which beat disruption and can mitigate defensive advantages whether from the secondary or a good rush (and that is my pushback to the “oh the schedule was soft.”)

Certainly if that pressure to sack rate can come down a bit from 21%, this is a player that once again has all the makings of a possible MVP campaign given his ability to win in structure and out and as his surroundings continue to improve.

Quickly, since I’ve written too much about Maye and the Pats already, this is a defense that Zak Kuhr took over as Defensive Play Caller at the dawn of the season, and was a terrific defense over the second half as they got their footing and as the team got healthier.

Over the second half of the season, this was a team 3rd in disruption rate.