Week 13 Betting Gameplan

Tails & Matchup Angles + SGPs & DFS Thoughts

A glorious post Thanksgiving fall Sunday, we are so blessed. As usual, in this note we’ll cover some tails angles (those not covered in other sections— SGPs + matchups have some within them!) some matchups the market is perhaps overlooking and mispricing, and we’ll hit on some SGPs and DFS thoughts. I will try and keep these as short and succinct as possible and apologies for any typos— this is the cost of writing these quick.

Tails Angles:

HOU

• C.J Stroud has some drastic splits when playing against disruption or kept clean. (For those new, disruption refers to play in which there is either perfect coverage and/or pressure that disrupts a play from ever developing fully).

• Stroud kept clean is top 10 in EPA and PFF grade whereas he is in the bottom quartile when playing against disruption. And with his offensive line woes—which improved drastically after Kenyon Green was benched—Stroud has seen 6th most disruption this season.

• But now he has a matchup against a Jaguars defense barely generating any disruption at 33% over the last 6 weeks, 3rd worst in the NFL. The Jaguars cannot generate a pass rush— a 9% quick pressure rate over the last 6 weeks dead last in the NFL for that span. Stroud should have plenty of time in the pocket to exploit the Jaguars and do so deep where they have allowed the 3rd highest explosive play rate.