Week 15 Betting Gameplan

Tails & Matchup Angles + SGPs

A full slate on our hands this week, we are truly so blessed. As usual, in this note we’ll cover some tails angles (those not covered in other sections— SGPs + matchups have some within them!) some matchups the market is perhaps overlooking and mispricing, and we’ll hit on some SGPs. I will try and keep these as short and succinct as possible and apologies for any typos.

Tails Angles

JAX:

• The Jets defense has been struggling of late especially in pass defense. Over the last month, they have allowed the 2nd highest EPA/Pass, 6th highest YPA while struggling to generate disruption with the 3rd lowest disruption rate and lowest pressure disruption rate. For those new or unfamiliar, disruption refers to plays with perfect coverage and/or plays where the pressure nukes a play from ever developing.

• The result is that the team has functioned as one of the biggest pass funnels allowing nearly 0.45 more EPA/Play facing the pass than the run, making them especially vulnerable to the passing game. And teams attack the Jets vertically as they have seen the 3rd highest ADOT and 4th most deep attempts of any team this season. And they will now be without starting CB D.J Reed who is out with a groin injury.

• Now Mac Jones is certainly not lighting the world on fire, but volume is often king in hitting on some of these passing tails. And the Jaguars passed at a neutral rate last game with Jones, not opting for an extreme run heavy approach. Not that much needs to go right for Jones to have an above average passing yard game especially given the state of Jets pass defense and how vulnerable they are to explosives. Of course, BTJ is going to get a few deep looks as he always does, and connect on 1-2 of those and Jones can fly past his passing props

Levis:

• It’s not my favorite spot, but I don’t hate going back to the Levis alts here. He has among the most wonky distributions of any QB given how much of his production comes from deep passing and how variant the team’s pass rates are. Outside of the usual volatile QB play, working against him is that the Bengals have struggled against the run and the Titans have been happy to pound the rock against poor run defenses.

• Working for him is that Levis has struggled immensely with pressure with an inability to avoid sacks while under pressure. (He is tied with Caleb Williams for the worst pressure to sack rate at 29%). But the Bengals have been bottom 10 in virtually any pass-rush metric this season, which should Levis with some more clean pockets than ordinary. And the Bengals pass D has struggled on the whole this season especially of late bottom 5 in YPA and EPA/Success Rate, explosive play rate allowed.

• Now I think a Levis big passing day is more likely in a game where the Bengals control the pace giving Levis the requisite volume to hit on the alts, but there are also paths I’ll build with Levis alts and the Titans coming through with a narrow win on the backs of some deep passing. Or perhaps there is some other creative SGP builds.

SEA:

• We talked in Stats & Angles about this team being a legit defense and one that, assuming they stay healthy, projects to be one of the top units going forward. Now can GB beat any opponents? Of course. But is SEA more likely than the market anticipates to slow than them down given their ability to stop the run and limit explosives? I think yes.

• And on the offensive side of the ball, the Packers function as a funnell, especially over the last month where they have the 5th best Success Rate against the run and 2nd worst Success Rate against the pass. The Seahawks operate as one of the pass heaviest offenses in the NFL with the 4th heaviest pass rate relative to expectation. If the Seahawks are going to win, I think it is likely going to be through the air and a heavy volume attack.

Haener:

• It felt like every week last year we talked about uncertain QBs and the potential opportunity, and this sets up as a similar spot. Here lies the logic we wrote about last season:

  • We don’t have enough of a sample size to know whether or not these QBs are good, or better said for our purposes, whether or not they can put together a league average to slightly above average game. To varying degrees, markets are pricing each of these guys essentially saying that their 90-95 %ile passing yard game would be roughly NFL league average. But with such a small sample, we can’t possibly know, and certainly not with certainty, what each of these individual QBs right tail game might look like. There’s a big difference in my view in betting on a 90-95% ile game for any QB in the league as opposed to a (supposedly) bad QB putting together a league average yardage game. Not much needs to go right for an NFL QB to, even accidentally, throw for 225 or 250 yards in a game.

• The point is that we don’t have much of a sample on Haener and while he’s probably bad that does not mean he can’t put together a decent game (I put little stock in his small sample of garbage time but it has been decent). The Washington defense is vulnerable and we know the Saints are going to dial up plenty of deep shots. While I’m certainly not touching the medians, not that much needs to go right for Haener to have a decent day despite what his current pricing would suggests.