Week 7 Betting Gameplan

Another 14 hour football day ahead of us, we are so blessed. Let’s get right into it, tails angles and the usual matchups and SGPs. Apologies for any typos in effort to get this out sooner.

Tails Angles:

A fairly thin week for the tails angles outsides of the ones we have listed in the more extensive write-ups below.

Fields:

• While I like Carolina as you’ll read below, there is certainly an angle where the Carolina rush defense forces Fields into a very heavy pass game script against a defense that is dead last in basically every pass game metric over the last few weeks. I don’t think this is most likely occurrence of course, and the Jets WR is fully depleted, but it is not every day we get such long odds for a QB to have a 75%ile QB game against a crazy pass funnell defense.

IND:

• It seems as though last week was the rare week off from the Colts as I’m hopping right back on in this matchup against the Chargers. I think everything we wrote last week about the Chargers offensive line still holds— with Alt out this is a team with major protection issues against a Colts pass rush 10th in quick pressure rate. I don’t anticipate the Chargers having the same ability to run the ball and fend off the rush agains.

• And while the Chargers defense is what presents much of their spread value in this matchup, this is a Colts offense that has been dominant so far 2nd in the NFL in EDP, EPA/Play, YDs/play. In this matchup interaction I anticipate the Colts having the ability to win and mitigate the effects of the Chargers defense.

• And should the Colts find themselves in a positive gamestate the Chargers inability to protect is only magnified making the tails intriguing. And I just can’t help myself with a little AD Mitchell as he steps back into the WR3 role…Jones 280, Mitchell 70+TD+ IND -4.5 for 170:1 anyone?

DAL-WAS

• There is little I can add on the Dallas offense— this team is a house facing a truly dreadful Washington secondary allowing a league worst 7.2 yards per dropback and 8.25 YPA. And the Dallas rushing offense as well has been top 5 in virtually every category giving this team a clear path to offensive success.

• But this is a Dallas defense that itself has been dreadful by any account, and their heavy zone tendencies play right into Jayden Daniels strengths. And with Dallas pass rush having one of the lowest time to pressures, they have often allowed plays to develop for longer than 3s where they are allowing open targets 80% of the time and 11.2 yds per target. Daniels meanwhile is 9.0 YPA on such plays extending. The injuries for WAS do worry me, but less so than it would in a matchup vs a heavy man team, as Daniels ability to extend and find the holes in the zone. This game has some blowup potential and the uncertainty at WR will likely make those SGPs appealing (when those lines come out).