Week 7 Betting Gameplan

Another 14 hour football day ahead of us, we are so blessed. Let’s get right into it, tails angles and the usual matchups and SGPs. Apologies for any typos in effort to get this out sooner.

Tails Angles:

A fairly thin week for the tails angles outsides of the ones we have listed in the more extensive write-ups below.

Fields:

• While I like Carolina as you’ll read below, there is certainly an angle where the Carolina rush defense forces Fields into a very heavy pass game script against a defense that is dead last in basically every pass game metric over the last few weeks. I don’t think this is most likely occurrence of course, and the Jets WR is fully depleted, but it is not every day we get such long odds for a QB to have a 75%ile QB game against a crazy pass funnell defense.

IND:

• It seems as though last week was the rare week off from the Colts as I’m hopping right back on in this matchup against the Chargers. I think everything we wrote last week about the Chargers offensive line still holds— with Alt out this is a team with major protection issues against a Colts pass rush 10th in quick pressure rate. I don’t anticipate the Chargers having the same ability to run the ball and fend off the rush agains.

• And while the Chargers defense is what presents much of their spread value in this matchup, this is a Colts offense that has been dominant so far 2nd in the NFL in EDP, EPA/Play, YDs/play. In this matchup interaction I anticipate the Colts having the ability to win and mitigate the effects of the Chargers defense.

• And should the Colts find themselves in a positive gamestate the Chargers inability to protect is only magnified making the tails intriguing. And I just can’t help myself with a little AD Mitchell as he steps back into the WR3 role…Jones 280, Mitchell 70+TD+ IND -4.5 for 170:1 anyone?

DAL-WAS

• There is little I can add on the Dallas offense— this team is a house facing a truly dreadful Washington secondary allowing a league worst 7.2 yards per dropback and 8.25 YPA. And the Dallas rushing offense as well has been top 5 in virtually every category giving this team a clear path to offensive success.

• But this is a Dallas defense that itself has been dreadful by any account, and their heavy zone tendencies play right into Jayden Daniels strengths. And with Dallas pass rush having one of the lowest time to pressures, they have often allowed plays to develop for longer than 3s where they are allowing open targets 80% of the time and 11.2 yds per target. Daniels meanwhile is 9.0 YPA on such plays extending. The injuries for WAS do worry me, but less so than it would in a matchup vs a heavy man team, as Daniels ability to extend and find the holes in the zone. This game has some blowup potential and the uncertainty at WR will likely make those SGPs appealing (when those lines come out).

Leveraging Tails:

ATL Alts:

Let us begin as usual, by looking at the team fundamentals to set the stage for our analysis.

Courtesy of our team chart from Timo Riske we see that this is a Falcons team that has had a surprisingly terrific defense with an offense performing better than the 49ers from a fundamentals point of view. Inpredictable, which uses look-ahead lines to derive team tiers suggests that the market is still not believing in this Falcons defense (0.0 pts) for 17th best in the NFL, while still maintaining that the 49ers are an above average defense, 12th in the NFL with a 0.5 rating.

But this has simply not been an accurate measure of how the 49ers have performed. Without Nick Bosa, the team has allowed a 0.37 EPA/Play and absurd 57% Success Rate Allowed, both bottom 3 in the NFL. And to make matters worse, the team lost the best graded defensive player in Fred Warner last week. Accounting for injuries, this is perhaps the worst pass defense now in the NFL and certainly not a unit 12th best or anywhere near that number. Even on the fundamentals level, this is a spot I see some value on the Falcons here.

Matchup Angles

An area where the Falcons defense has had immense success has been with their blitzes. No team has a higher rate of pressure on their blitzes than the Falcons who are leading the NFL in blitz % as well. This is perhaps reason to believe that this Falcons defense which has been one of the best in the NFL has some stickiness to it– and the 4.9 Yards Per Dropback (2nd in NFL) lends itself to that as well.

But more important for our purposes is understanding the Falcons defense in this matchup. And Mac Jones has struggled immensely against the blitz this season (Mac Jones is anticipated to start per Kyle Shanahan).

The only non-starter with a worse EPA against the blitz than Mac Jones is Cam Ward this season as Jones has been abysmal when facing the blitz to the tune of a -0.25 EPA/play. This figures to be a problem against this blitzing Atlanta defense.

On the flipside of the ball, this is a Falcons rush offense that should have their way with the 49ers, especially with the run game with Fred Warner out. And as we discussed, this is a pass defense that has struggled immensely and is consistently allowing teams to remain in system. Coupled with a strong running game setting up favorable positions, the Falcons should remain in system plenty. And this is a 49ers defense sans Bosa allowing teams to remain in system at a top 5 clip.

While not the largest of effects Penix has been a below average QB out of system and an above average on in system. With little to force him out of structure, where Penix is best he and the offense should have no problem moving the football.

The Falcons, I think, are simply the better team from a fundamental standpoint and in this matchup, and with this defense as hurt as they are and the market slow to adjust we are going back to the well against the 49ers with the Falcons.

Matchup Angles:

Story: Carolina Ability to Force Blocking Mistakes Stymies Jets Ground Game

A late 2021 PFF data study looked at the effect of perfectly blocked run plays and how those go quite a long way in rushing success,

For the Jets this season, the run game has been particularly explosive, with Breece Hall leading the NFL in explosive rush rate. And while Hall hasn’t seen too many perfectly blocked runs, he has an NFL leading 30% explosive rush rate when he has perfect blocking. And when the play is not perfectly blocked, Hall is 29th in the NFL with a low 1.7 YPC.

And this is a Carolina run defense that has been ferocious over the last few weeks, with the lowest Perfect Block rate allowed for the season to go along with a far away NFL leading 18% Run Success Rate Allowed over the last few games. And this is a Jets team that has consistently shown a desire to run the ball, no matter the situation which could pose a problem given the matchup.

I’ll be on Hall U’s Jets U’s and SGPs which contain an anchor of the Jets struggling to move the ball on the ground.

Story: TB hits on the explosives against a banged up Lions Secondary:

One of PFF’s studies highlighted the importance of drive level success on the NFL offenses, suggesting the outsized effect it has on offensive success. And this is a spot where the Bucs are well set up to take advantage of explosive matchup.

This is a Lions secondary that is absolutely bleeding on defense with injuries to nearly all their corners, a hurt Kerby Joseph and now a suspended Brian Branch adding to the issues on the backend.

And this is the Lions team which plays among the most single high coverage and has been inviting the deep plays, with the 5th highest deep attempt % faced.

As we highlighted last week, this has been an area where Baker Mayfield has excelled this season throwing deep more than nearly every category and having among the most success of any QB not named Darnold or Maye.

And with the state of this Lions secondary room, Baker should be able to carve them up deep and generate the explosive plays for this offense. I’ll be on Baker O’s, TB alts and SGPs telling the story of the Bucs having success with the explosive passing game.

SGPs

Story: Coker Steps right back into WR 2 role

• The Panthers have needed some help at secondary WR so far this season with little by way of production outside of Tet McMillian. And the market is perhaps indicating that Coker will be eased into action, but by all indications Coker should be a full-go. (And there is likely some signal in the Panthers belief in Coker as the #2 WR having traded away Adam Thielen just days before the Coker injury.)

• But now Jalen Coker returns and he was one of the best in the NFL after the catch. This has been an area that the Jets have struggled with so far this season allowing a league high 6.8 Yards After the Catch.

• Further, this is a Jets team with a massive drop-off outside of Sauce Gardner at CB, with second options torching the team all season.

• And should Young be getting some help from his second WR– in addition to potential huge play volume on account of the Panthers Run D slowing down the Jets– and this could be a spot for spike Volume and production for this passing offense.

Build: 140:1 on DK

Coker 80 rec Yds + Anytime TD

Bryce Young 270 Passing

CAR ML

Story: Justin Jefferson dominates Eagles secondary deep

• While the 2024 Philadelphia Eagles had the lowest explosive play rate allowed and teams did not throw deep against them, the 2025 version has been far different schematically and have faced the highest deep attempt % in the NFL.

• And the Eagles have played the 2nd most single-coverage so far in the NFL this season, where Jefferson has a massive 30% share and is atop the league in nearly every category (both deep and against single coverage).

• And the Eagles are undermanned to guard him with Mitchell not performing up to his lofty rookie year, below average in separation prevented, while nursing an injury himself.

• And with Jalen Carter perhaps out as well, and Minnesota returning some starters on the offensive line, Wentz should have plenty of time to look deep to Jefferson. Should a few connect, this is the exact recipe for a Jefferson explosion.

Build: 39:1 on DK

Jefferson 150

Wentz 300 Passing

MIN ML

Story: Franklin Takes advantage of Giants man-heavy coverage

• The Giants have played more man coverage than any other team in the NFL leading the league at a nearly 50% clip in man.

• And in man coverage Troy Franklin has dominated the target share for the Broncos receiving a target on close to 35% of his routes while also separating at a terrific clip. And Franklin has been running routes on nearly 80% of dropbacks giving him a healthy role in this game.

• While the Giants run defense has struggled, the Broncos are one of the heaviest pass teams in the NFL and should continue to throw the ball even in a leading game script.

Build: 50:1 on DraftKings

Troy Franklin 6 Catches + 100 Yards

Bo Nix 280 Passing

That is all for this week. As always appreciate the support and spread the good word about Throwthedamball. Feedback/questions/comments always encouraged and let’s have ourselves a Sunday.