Week 1 Gameplan

Tails & Matchup Angles + SGPs

Wow wow we are so blessed to have had 2 games already and a great week and season of football ahead of us. I will be offline for Rosh Hashanah so getting this out nice and early. Shana Tova to all my peeps!

We’re going to discuss tails angles, matchups the market is I think not properly accounting for and some SGPs. Of course, there are plenty of tails angles within the SGPs and matchups to be played separately, and the goal is as always to match the research presented without your own thoughts. My apologies for any typos, getting this out quick here.

Tails Angles:

IND:

A game with a massive amount of variance and uncertainty which should be our best friend in Week 1. On both sides, I think, we have some major questions.

As we outlined in the AFC North Preview Jackson struggled in 2025 and his play style thoroughly changed.

Even before his injury, Jackson was extending far less than normal and the result was much worse play out of structure for him. Now the Colts might not have the best pass rush to force his hand, but many of Jackson’s pressures from 2025 were of his own creation— or pressure that arrives after the play develops where he ranked 2nd to last in the NFL at 27% of dropbacks (only Shedeur Sanders was worse). Should that trend hold onto 2026 there are some serious problems for this Ravens offense and one that I am not sure is primed to take advantage of the weak pass-rush of the Colts.

On the Colts side, this is an offense that, with Daniel Jones, was perhaps the best in the NFL before he went down. Now the team is dealing with some injuries at WR as Pierce missed some time, and playing football after a torn achilles is far different than playing football before tearing your achilles.

But there is at least some sample of Jones+ Colts as an elite offense, and much of the cast from O-line, to QB, to scheme remains the same. It is one thing to project any team to have such an offense and another for a team that has sustained in for a decent chunk of NFL time.

I guess in writing this out, I am more bullish on the Colts tails here though of course there is plenty of mass on the Ravens and Jackson returning to form and taking advantage of a weak Colts defense and this a Ravens defense at full health and getting AJ Minter, who I have as one of the best DPC’s out there. And yet, if the Colts really are going to return to an elite offense or even one slightly worse, we might be looking back questioning how they had the 19th highest team total on the board. That’s a tail worth taking.

ARI:

This one feels absolutely nasty, but I think the Cardinals are among the most mispriced team in market. Rather than clog with analysis that is already way running way way too long (I wrote the tails angles last), can read the case right here.

The tldr; We know Brissett isn’t going to a top QB, but he’s also very unlikely to be a bottom of the barrel one. This is an OC that made Mike White relevant, a terrific weapons group and a defense whose cluster injuries last year have majorly skewed their market value. I’m as big a fan of Herbert and McDaniel as anyone else, but with Minter gone from LAC, there’s huge uncertainty to actual talent and underlying of the defense and if we simmed this 1K times and updated in 3-4 weeks from now, I am buying that AZ comes out on top at more than the 19% we see on Polymarket right now.

CHI:

The Bears were #1 in Perfectly Blocked Run Rate and get a Carolina D that is bottom of league forcing blocking mistakes and was bottom 5 in Success Rate allowed and EPA. The passing offense as well is decently set up against a Carolina team that plays the soft zone Caleb Williams was terrific at attacking last year where he was 0.1 points per play better than in man coverage.

No matter how Chicago plans to attack, I think they should be able to put up lots of points and quickly. And with how aggressive Johnson gets, I think CHI can run up the score— and I don’t hate a Bryce Young Passing Yards SGP with the Bears alts as his priors and current distribution assume lots of low volume passing games, but if CHI dictates the offense and pace, against a still poor D, Young should be able to put up some yards as well.

WAS:

As we used to say in the forecast days we’ve got a better QB getting 6 points here! Jokes aside, Daniels,healthy, is the exact type of QB whose scrambling ability and play vs disruption mitigate the effects of a Philly D that should still be one of the best and where market is showing most of its value (with Washington having the 6th lowest team total). Daniels is the best at recognizing disruption to scramble (#1) which elevates his play vs disruption where he has been a top 3 QB his first two years.

And while I don’t anticipate this Washington Defense to be particularly good I am not certain Hurts will be able to fully take advantage.

Hurts struggled in his grading in system plays and when there was no disruptive event. And this was with AJB still on offense here who helped elevate production (top in EPA) despite some worse grading underlying. Life with safety help shaded to Smith might make him less effective, and we’ve got a rookie slot in Lemon who missed most of camp with a WR in Wicks where there is likely signal in his inability to earn playing time in GB. It is an uncertain set up to the left tail for a QB in a new offense with new personnel and a QB with a different playing style, even if the on paper matchup looks terrific.

Leveraging Tails

Most bettors place wagers in multiple markets — spreads, totals, teasers, props, etc. — where they generally get oriented by following a bottom-up approach: “Which spreads do I like?” “Which totals stand out this week?”

But the goal in this space is to articulate a process for trades by following a top-down approach. Consider this a weekly deeper dive into a broader process. We will consider how a specific thesis on a team, player, or trend is best applied and capitalized on the proper market. Some bets will track more traditional markets, but more often we will look to maximize our upside in the multitude of different markets offered by markets — dependent on finding the right market for the thesis! Let’s dive in!

NYJ alts

Let us begin as always by setting the game and team fundamentals as the baseline of our analysis

The Titans are slight home favorites although the price has moved towards the Jets in recent weeks. Last year, from an earned drive points perspective, or how well teams earned their points as defined by how well they can sustain and reproduce that drive.

The Titans and Jets were in their own little orbit on the bottom left as the worst teams in the NFL, with the Jets better on offense. Of course, these teams underwent some major changes, and Brady Cook’s 2025 numbers aren’t the most predictive of success. As a result, there is plenty of uncertainty and there are two main tails that I want to attack here 1) that Geno Smith’s 2025, in the context of this matchup, is potentially less an indicator of production than his previous seasons and 2) that much of the projection here of the Titans development and as favorites is premised on Cam Ward’s development, which is no guarantee.

For games like these I want to be asking: if we replayed this in 3-4 weeks time with new information in which way do I think the price is likely to move-- and I think it is the Jets as clear favorites over the Titans.

Geno was a slightly above average QB in Seattle every year before completely faltering in 2025 for Vegas. Now in some respect that I think nicely represents the wide range of outcomes for Smith-- where it would not be shocking for Smith to continue as one of the worst in the NFL like he was this season and for the wheels to come off for the 35 year old QB. But there are reasons for optimism and to say 2025 may have simply been a blip given the situation in Vegas.